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For years, the traditional way of calculating NFL strength of schedule for an upcoming season has been annoying. For any given team, you just add up the 2011 records of all 16 opponents and—voila!—you have your 2012 strength of schedule ratings.
At best, it’s just lazy. At worst, it gives you no real indication of who will have the toughest schedule because it bases everything off last season.
Why should we value a team’s record last season over what we expect them to do in the upcoming year? As a fan, when peering through your team’s schedule, you don’t ask yourself, “How good was that opponent in 2011?” No, instead you ask yourself, “How good will that team be in 2012?”
Consider this a new way of defining strength of schedule in the NFL.
We went two directions with this.
First, we added up the LVH SuperBook’s 2012 NFL win totals on every team’s schedule. That gave us the combined wins that each team is expected to face in 2012.
Browns: 136
Giants: 135.5
Broncos: 135
Cardinals: 135
Ravens: 134.5
Jaguars: 131
Saints: 131
Redskins: 130.5
Seahawks: 130.5
Buccaneers: 130
Cowboys: 130
Jets: 130
Titans: 130
Panthers: 129.5
Bengals: 129
Lions: 129
Rams: 128.5
Chargers: 128
Colts: 128
Dolphins: 128
49ers: 127.5
Raiders: 127.5
Steelers: 127.5
Chiefs: 126.5
Falcons: 125.5
Vikings: 125.5
Bills: 125
Eagles: 125
Texans: 125
Bears: 124.5
Patriots: 121
Packers: 120.5
That method is a significant step up from the traditional way, but it’s still flawed. After all, a team’s 2012 win total is calculated based on the schedule, so a team with a total of 9.5 isn’t necessarily better than a team with a total of 9. They could just have an easier schedule.
So, second, we took Phil Steele’s power ratings in his 2012 NFL preview magazine. Steele rated every team 1 through 32. By calculating the average power rating of the 16 opponents for every team in 2012, we arrived at a new set of strength of schedule ratings. (Lower average power rating indicates a more difficult schedule.)
Ravens: 12.94
Giants: 13.94
Browns: 14.38
Redskins: 14.44
Cowboys: 14.56
Bengals: 15.13
Steelers: 15.19
Saints: 15.31
Broncos: 15.44
Panthers: 15.56
Eagles: 15.69
Cardinals: 15.81
Seahawks: 16.25
Colts: 16.31
Rams: 16.44
Titans: 16.50
Vikings: 16.69
Falcons: 16.81
Lions: 16.81
Raiders: 17.13
Jaguars: 17.25
Jets: 17.25
Dolphins: 17.38
Buccaneers: 17.56
49ers: 17.69
Bills: 17.69
Chargers: 17.94
Packers: 18.19
Chiefs: 18.50
Bears: 18.75
Patriots: 19.13
Texans: 19.38
The best ranking for strength of schedule is probably a combination of those two. (We can’t base it entirely off anyone’s power ratings because those are still, at their core, subjective.)
So, we gave every team a 1-through-32 ranking for each of the above ratings, averaged them together, and that gave us our final 2012 NFL strength of schedule:
1. Browns
1. Giants
3. Ravens
4. Broncos
4. Redskins
6. Saints
7. Cardinals
7. Cowboys
9. Bengals
9. Seahawks
11. Panthers
12. Titans
13. Jaguars
14. Steelers
15. Jets
16. Colts
16. Rams
18. Lions
19. Buccaneers
20. Eagles
21. Dolphins
21. Raiders
23. Vikings
24. Falcons
25. Chargers
26. 49ers
27. Bills
28. Chiefs
29. Texans
30. Bears
30. Packers
32. Patriots
We’ll have plenty more posts incorporating these rankings in the coming weeks, but use them accordingly when betting any 2012 NFL futures or win totals.
