Sometimes perception isn’t reality.
Over the last few years, it’s been widely believed that betting the over on high totals at Wrigley Field has been profitable. By “high totals,” we’re referring to those that are 10 runs or more, a result of heavy winds blowing out in what’s already considered to be one of the best hitters’ ballparks in baseball.
A 10-game stretch in 2010—one that saw 10 straight games with double digit totals go over by an average of 3.45 runs—likely contributed to this belief.
But over the last decade, it’s actually been a better bet to go under on wind-inflated totals.
Since 2002, the over on totals of 10 or more is just 98-107-6, a rate of 47 percent. The sub .500 win percentage—combined with the added juice—isn’t close to profitable. This year, Wrigley totals of 10 or more have gone under six of 10 times.
The total in tonight’s Cubs-Reds game is currently at 14. It’s the highest Wrigley over/under of the season, and winds are expected to reach up to 25 miles per hour blowing out.
If the plan was to blindly bet the over, you might want to reconsider that strategy.
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2002-’06: Over 41; Under 51; Push 4
2007-’12: Over 57; Under 56; Push 2