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PrintOregon-USC is already being billed as one of the biggest games of the upcoming college football season, and here’s one reason why: Based on point spread projections, the Ducks have an 86 percent chance of still being undefeated when the two teams meet in Los Angeles on Nov. 3.
The Trojans, projected favorites in the Pac-12, will be favored in that matchup, but they have only a 39 percent chance of still being unblemished. (So, there’s a 34 percent chance that both teams are undefeated for the matchup.)
That’s because of the schedule. Oregon should be double-digit favorites in 11 of 12 regular-season games, but USC has to play at Stanford, at Utah and at Washington all before facing the Ducks.
We used our projected point spreads for all 798 college football games to come up with win odds for every game involving a team in the USA Today Top 25.
Now, by combining all this, we can give ourselves a rough idea* for which teams have the best chance of staying undefeated the longest.
*If a team has an 86 percent chance of winning one game, a 75 percent chance of winning the next, and a 94 percent chance of winning the next, their chances of going 3-0 through that stretch are .86*.75*.94 = 61 percent.
For example, 17th-ranked TCU has a soft early schedule and a 31-percent chance of staying unbeaten through Week 8 (better odds than No. 1 LSU at that point). But after that, all the tougher Big 12 matchups start popping up, so the unbeaten odds plummet.
Take a look at the table below. If nothing else, it should be fun to go back to during the regular season, but it could also help with futures betting (also included in the table).
*An asterisk indicates a bye week, while CC stands for conference championship.
| TEAM | FUTURES | WEEK 1 | WEEK 2 | WEEK 3 | WEEK 4 | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | +550 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 73% | 73% | 45% | 35% | 28% | 28%* | 16% | 16% | 16% | 10% | CC |
| Alabama | +650 | 83% | 83% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51%* | 42% | 35% | 33% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | CC |
| USC | +360 | 100% | 100% | 66% | 65% | 65%* | 49% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 20% | CC |
| Oklahoma | +1000 | 100% | 100% | 100%* | 85% | 85%* | 69% | 43% | 43% | 33% | 33% | 31% | 17% | 13% | 8% |
| Oregon | +1400 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 86% | 86%* | 86% | 86% | 29% | 22% | 18% | 16% | CC |
| Georgia | +1600 | 100% | 57% | 57% | 52% | 43% | 16% | 16%* | 15% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | CC |
| Florida St | +600 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 56% | 41% | 41% | 32% | 32% | 32%* | 16% | 15% | 11% | CC |
| Michigan | +4100 | 17% | 17% | 17% | 9% | 9%* | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | CC |
| S Carolina | +4600 | 77% | 77% | 77% | 62% | 56% | 35% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3%* | 2% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| Arkansas | +2800 | 100% | 100% | 39% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 9%* | 9% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| WVU | +4800 | 100% | 100%* | 100% | 100% | 85% | 32% | 21% | 15% | 15%* | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Wisconsin | +6000 | 100% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 32% | 31% | 21% | 21% | 15% | 15%* | 15% | 9% | 6% | CC |
| Mich St | +4500 | 70% | 70% | 43% | 43% | 23% | 22% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1%* | 1% | 1% | CC |
| Clemson | +5500 | 57% | 57% | 57% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 7%* | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | CC |
| Texas | +3600 | 100% | 100% | 85% | 85%* | 39% | 24% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5%* | 4% | 2% |
| Nebraska | +7000 | 84% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 39% | 14% | 14%* | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| TCU | +10000 | 100%* | 100% | 96% | 81% | 65% | 65% | 40% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 3%* | 1% | 0% |
| Stanford | +27500 | 100% | 100% | 34% | 34%* | 18% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | CC |
| Okla St | +15000 | 100% | 85% | 85% | 85%* | 46% | 46%* | 46% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Va Tech | +2800 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 31% | 19% | 19% | 9% | 9%* | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | CC |
| Kansas St | +16000 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11% | 11%* | 11% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0%* | 0% |
| Boise St | +16000 | 30% | 30%* | 30% | 21% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12%* | 9% |
| Florida | +7000 | 100% | 54% | 27% | 27% | 27%* | 10% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | CC |
| ND Irish | +5000 | 84% | 68% | 26% | 12% | 12%* | 9% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Auburn | +9500 | 43% | 21% | 21% | 6% | 6%* | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
