Each week throughout the NFL season, we’ll take a look at the three biggest public plays on the board and speculate what the public sees and why they are betting a particular side.
We’ll also be tracking these plays throughout the year to see how Joe Public is faring in the NFL.
Last Week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 7-5 ATS
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PACKERS @ COLTS, 1 P.M. ET
Open: Green Bay -6.5
Current: Green Bay -7
Public Betting %: 81% on Green Bay
What they see: The Packers haven’t quite put it together so far this season, but they’re still highly public, and getting them at a touchdown or less against a bad team is very appealing.
Analysis: We keep waiting for that “Green Bay circa 2011″ game, when the Packers steamroll an opponent like they did for most of the 2011 regular season.
Could this be the day?
Green Bay’s pass rush could give Indianapolis’ struggling offensive line fits, and Aaron Rodgers has always been deadly playing opponents on turf. It’s a lot of points to lay on the road, but we’d actually side with the public on this one.
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RAVENS @ CHIEFS, 1 P.M. ET
Open: Baltimore -6.5
Current: Baltimore -6.5
Public Betting %: 77% on Baltimore
What they see: A Chiefs offense that has turned the ball over 15 times in 16 quarters going against a Ravens defense that is traditionally one of the best in the league.
Analysis: Oh, and people are starting to fall in love with the Baltimore offense, which underwent a facelift and is now fifth in scoring (30.2) and second in yards per play (6.4).
The Ravens have a home game against Dallas looming and then a big road trip to Houston the week after that, so there’s a chance this game isn’t drawing their full attention.
We don’t really like either side at this number.
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BEARS @ JAGUARS, 4:05 P.M. ET
Open: Chicago -5.5
Current: Chicago -6
Public Betting %: 84% on Chicago
What they see: A Bears team that just shredded the Cowboys on Monday Night Football going up against the lowly Jaguars, who rank next-to-last in the NFL in yards per play (4.6).
Analysis: This feels like an over-adjustment of the spread given that the Bears were 3-point favorites before their Week 4 victory at Dallas.
That was an impressive win for sure, but it came with the luxury of five Tony Romo interceptions, many of which came on fluke plays like batted balls or poor communication on routes.
Are the Bears really three points better than we perceived them to be last week? Probably not.