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Three baseball trends you might not know: A’s are league’s most undervalued home team

July 21, 2012

If you’ve never taken the time to peer through the databases at Team Rankings, you’re missing out on a potentially valuable resource.

Want to know which baseball team is the best this season with one day of rest? Or who’s been terrible as a road favorite? Or what team bounces back the best from a loss?

Team Rankings has the answers.

Listed below are three trends (along with a bonus) you might be unaware of in your baseball betting. As always, don’t take these as endorsements of a bet, but just use this information in your daily handicapping.

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1. The Oakland A’s are the league’s best as a home underdog.

Oakland continues to be one of the more undervalued teams in the major leagues. The A’s—still the worst-hitting team in baseball—are rarely favored, but they’re 49-44 and up 13.95 units. Even at home in the Coliseum, the Athletics have been underdogs in 30 of 48 games, but they’re 17-13 in such situations. Oakland has won its last three home games (one against Texas, two against New York) as +125, +104 and +121 dogs.

Relevant because: Athletics +117 vs. Yankees, 9:05 p.m. ET

2. Overs are hitting more than 60 percent of the time in Milwaukee, Colorado and Boston.

Miller Park, Coors Field and Fenway Park are always three of the most hitter-friendly ballparks, so it’s a bit surprising that oddsmakers haven’t been able to adjust. Overs are 29-16-1 (.644) at Miller Park, 29-18-2 (.617) at Coors Field and 29-19-3 (.604) at Fenway Park. Since 2007, these are three of the top four ‘over’ ballparks in the league, all hitting at better than 54 percent.

Relevant because: Blue Jays at Red Sox, O/U 10, 7:10 p.m. ET

3. The Texas Rangers win two-thirds of the time following a loss.

Not only are the Rangers 24-12 (.666) following a loss, their average margin of victory is a full run per game, the top mark in the majors. Of the team’s 24 victories after a loss, 22 of them have come by at least two runs. This is a continuation of last season, when the Rangers were second-best in the league following a loss at 46-26 (.639) and won by an average of 1.8 runs. On Friday night, though, Texas lost against the Angels after falling to the A’s the day before. Yu Darvish is on the hill on Saturday afternoon.

Relevant because: Rangers -115 at Angels, 4:05 p.m. ET

BONUS | Unders are hitting more than 71 percent of the time (30-12-3) in San Francisco’s home games.

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