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PrintAs Santonio Holmes was carted off the field, hands crossed and head down, you had to wonder if the New York Jets’ once-lofty and now-delusional Super Bowl dreams went with him.
Already gone for the season was All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis, and Holmes’ non-contact foot injury looked like it had the same potential.
Without Holmes, New York’s offense continued to sink, finishing with only nine first downs and 145 yards in a 34-0 loss to the 49ers.
Mark Sanchez completed less than half his passes, and Shonn Greene looked slower than a Waffle House waitress.
After the loss, the Jets now rank 28th in the NFL in total offense (284), 29th in yards per play (4.7), 30th in passer rating (70.0), and 30th in yards per rush (3.2).
HOW DO TEAMS PERFORM AFTER GETTING SHUT OUT AT HOME?
Public perception for NFL teams can’t really get much lower than after a home shutout.
Before the season, the Jets were listed as a pick ‘em at home for their Monday Night Football matchup this week against the Houston Texans. Last week, in the LVH SuperBook’s look-ahead lines for Week 5, that spread had moved to Houston -4.
And now, with the Texans off to a 4-0 ATS start and looking like the best team in the NFL, the number is all the way up to Houston -7.5. It’s only the 14th time in the past 10 years that a home team will be underdogs of more than a touchdown on Monday Night Football.
Has the spread gone too high?
The good news for the Jets is that teams generally perform very well—against the spread, at least—the week after getting shut out at home.
It doesn’t happen often, so the sample size is still fairly limited, but since 1989 teams are 38-25-1 ATS the week following a home shutout. In the more modern era (since 2000), teams are 21-10 ATS after getting blanked at home.
Bottom line: New York’s offense looks dreadful, and we still have to wait to hear just how damaging Holmes’ injury was. It’s always difficult to talk yourself into taking a team that can’t move the ball, but it does appear there’s at least a little bit of line value in the Jets at anything above a touchdown.
