It’s two teams heading in opposite directions on Monday Night Football.
The Houston Texans—now a Super Bowl favorite at pretty much every sportsbook—are the NFL’s only unbeaten team against the spread, while the New York Jets—whose Super Bowl and playoff dreams are dying slowly every week—are coming off a humiliating home shutout.
As you might expect, most of the betting interest is on the Texans, who have risen from 7- to 9-point favorites.
What follows is a breakdown of the point spread for the game, with news, notes, quotes and anecdotes to help you make your bets.
Keep in mind: The “edge” is merely a suggestion, and not something we necessarily recommend playing.
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TEXANS AT JETS, 8:30 P.M. ET
OPENING POINT SPREAD: Houston -7 | CURRENT: Houston -9 | OVER/UNDER: 40 | TV: ESPN
SUMMARY: In the LVH SuperBook’s Week 5 look-ahead lines released a week ago, the Jets were only 4-point underdogs for this matchup. But after getting blanked at home against the 49ers, 34-0, oddsmakers were forced to adjust. Even a full touchdown wasn’t enough, though, as SportsInsights—an extremely useful tool for tracking public betting—tells us that about three-fourths of bettors are on the favorites, moving the line two points. (The over/under, meanwhile, has dropped from 42 to 40.)
STORYLINES: You might assume (as we did) that blindly betting big home underdogs on Monday Night Football would be a profitable long-term strategy, but that hasn’t really been the case.
Since 2002, Monday Night home underdogs of at least a touchdown are 9-6 ATS. Dating back all the way to 1989, that number is only 14-15-1 ATS.
Earlier this week, we pointed out that teams are 38-25-1 ATS the week following a home shutout. In the more modern era (since 2000), that record improves to 21-10 ATS.
Whatever the numbers, though, New York is in for a brutal test.
Santonio Holmes is out for the season with a foot injury, leaving the Jets without any real threat downfield and pondering the possibility of giving (wait for it) Tim Tebow more playing time and possibly even supplanting starter Mark Sanchez.
Houston, meanwhile, has possibly the best defense in the NFL and has already recorded three victories of at least 20 points. It’s no wonder New York’s team total for tonight is set at only 14.5 points.
EDGE: There’s probably a little line value in the Jets, but it’s a true “hold your nose” type of bet. Given the amount of bettors pouring in on Houston, it’s probably best to wait until kickoff if you want to take the home underdog.