Mailbag

NFL teams before a bye week: Fading them is profitable this year, but what about all time?

October 24, 2012

In the latest edition of the BTB mailbag, a reader notes that NFL teams have struggled straight up and against the spread the week before a bye so far in the 2012 season.

Does the trend hold up over the last several years?

Mailbag

MLB Playoffs: ‘How often do teams come back after dropping the first two games at home?’

October 16, 2012

Derek Jeter is out with a broken ankle, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez are a combined 5-for-55 (.091) in the playoffs, and now the New York Yankees have to avoid an 0-3 hole on the road against Tigers ace Justin Verlander.

In the latest edition of the BTB Mailbag, a reader wonders how often teams come back after losing the first two games at home, and whether taking the Yankees at +495 to win the series is a wise bet.

Mailbag

NFL Margin of Victory: How often do teams win by 3? What about other key numbers?

September 16, 2012

In the latest edition of the mailbag, a reader asks how frequently NFL games fall on key numbers like 3 or 7. To find out, we analyzed a 2,558-game sample since the 2002 season.

Read on for the results.

Mailbag

‘Home teams are great on Thursday nights, but how about when they host College Gameday?’

September 11, 2012

We’ve written before about the ATS success that home teams have on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football.

But in the latest edition of the mailbag, a reader wants to know if that same type of success carries over to Saturdays—for schools that host ESPN College Gameday.

Mailbag

‘Hey BTB, I bet only NFL favorites of 2.5 points and underdogs of 3.5 points; Does it work?’

September 5, 2012

A reader came to us with a simple NFL betting theory that worked for him in 2011: When the spread is 2.5, bet the favorite. When it’s at 3.5, bet the underdog.

Considering the Giants are favored by 3.5 points against the Cowboys in tonight’s NFL opener, we figured this mailbag was particularly relevant.

Mailbag

NFL Preseason Is Over: Do exhibition games really not carry over into regular season?

August 31, 2012

Who says the NFL preseason has no bearing on the regular season? Nate Burleson and the Detroit Lions used a 4-0 ATS preseason in 2011 to start off 4-0-1 ATS in the games that counted.

In 2012, five teams went either perfect or winless against the spread. Will it have any effect on the early part of the regular season?

Mailbag

We know odds of staying unbeaten for college teams, but what about the Packers or Patriots?

August 15, 2012

The Packers and Patriots are projected favorites in every game this season, so naturally they have the best chance of any team in the NFL to go undefeated.

But a reader wants to know the week-by-week odds of each team remaining unblemished. They’re not that great.

Mailbag

Laying The Foundation: How do first-year NFL head coaches perform ATS in the preseason?

August 13, 2012

In the latest edition of the mailbag, a reader asks if first-year NFL head coaches have ATS success in the preseason. The theory is that new coaches want to make a good first impression, and as a result, they treat the games more seriously.

The results, however, don’t support the logic.

Mailbag

Conference Realignment: How do teams fare against the spread in first year in new league?

August 1, 2012

Four college football teams joined new conferences in 2011 and went a combined 21-27-1 ATS overall and just 7-17-1 ATS against league opponents.

With 11 teams changing conferences this year—including Missouri, Texas A&M, TCU and West Virginia—a reader asks if there are any historical angles that might be useful for handicapping purposes?

Mailbag

Are first-year NFL head coaches undervalued? How often do they exceed season win totals?

July 27, 2012

In 2012, Dennis Allen will be the seventh new head coach of the past decade for the Oakland Raiders, who account for 11 percent of the coaching changes in the NFL since 2002.

How will he do with the Raiders’ win total of 7? In the latest edition of the Mailbag, a reader asks how first-year NFL head coaches have done in recent history.

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Mailbag

NFL teams before a bye week: Fading them is profitable this year, but what about all time?

MLB Playoffs: ‘How often do teams come back after dropping the first two games at home?’

NFL Margin of Victory: How often do teams win by 3? What about other key numbers?

‘Home teams are great on Thursday nights, but how about when they host College Gameday?’

‘Hey BTB, I bet only NFL favorites of 2.5 points and underdogs of 3.5 points; Does it work?’

NFL Preseason Is Over: Do exhibition games really not carry over into regular season?

We know odds of staying unbeaten for college teams, but what about the Packers or Patriots?

Laying The Foundation: How do first-year NFL head coaches perform ATS in the preseason?

Conference Realignment: How do teams fare against the spread in first year in new league?

Are first-year NFL head coaches undervalued? How often do they exceed season win totals?

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