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PrintYou know everything is falling a team’s way when they’re getting sudden production from Nate McLouth’s corpse.
The Baltimore Orioles are by far the biggest overachievers of the 2012 Major League Baseball season. They’re currently tied with Oakland for the Wild Card lead, at least a couple games ahead of much more loaded rosters like the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels.
No one really knows for sure how Baltimore is doing this. “Team chemistry,” some say, while still others offer the old baseball theory, “Buck Showalter is really holding this team together.”
Basically, the Orioles are making sabermetricians lose sleep at night.
They’re 71-57 despite being outscored by 39 runs (581-542). They have a ridiculous 24-6 record in one-run games (next best is Cleveland at 15-8), and they’re 12-2 in extra innings.
They have an expected record of 60-68, meaning they’re 11 games ahead of where their Pythagorean expectation says they “should” be.
All of this, of course, results in the following theory: There’s no way Baltimore can keep this up through the final month of the season.
DO OVERACHIEVING TEAMS FALL OFF IN SEPTEMBER?
The short answer: No.
In the past decade, we haven’t really seen a team overachieving quite as much as the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. But, since 2002, there have been 31 teams that were at least five games ahead of their Pythagorean expectation at this point in the season.
Of those 31, slightly more than half actually improved their win percentage over the final month of the season.
Improved win percentage: 16
Decreased win percentage: 15
So, no, at least in recent history, overachieving teams don’t go away. They just keep right on doing their thing, defying all the advanced statistics that stand in their path.
| YEAR | TEAM | AUG. 29 | X W/L | FINAL | LAST MONTH | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Tigers | 73-60 (.549) | 67-66 | 95-67 | 16-13 (.552) | +.003 |
| Brewers | 81-54 (.600) | 74-61 | 96-66 | 15-12 (.556) | -.044 | |
| D'Backs | 75-59 (.560) | 70-64 | 94-68 | 19-9 (.679) | +.119 | |
| Giants | 71-63 (.530) | 65-69 | 86-76 | 15-13 (.536) | +.006 | |
| 2010 | Royals | 54-75 (.419) | 49-80 | 67-95 | 13-20 (.394) | -.025 |
| Astros | 59-70 (.457) | 53-76 | 76-86 | 17-16 (.515) | +.058 | |
| 2009 | Yankees | 80-48 (.625) | 74-54 | 103-59 | 23-11 (.676) | +.051 |
| Angels | 76-51 (.598) | 70-57 | 97-65 | 21-14 (.600) | +.002 | |
| Mariners | 67-62 (.519) | 59-70 | 85-77 | 18-15 (.545) | +.026 | |
| Astros | 62-66 (.484) | 56-72 | 74-88 | 12-22 (.353) | -.131 | |
| Padres | 55-75 (.423) | 50-80 | 75-87 | 20-12 (.625) | +.202 | |
| 2008 | Rays | 81-51 (.614) | 75-57 | 97-65 | 16-14 (.533) | -.080 |
| Angels | 81-52 (.609) | 72-61 | 100-62 | 19-10 (.655) | +.046 | |
| Mariners | 50-83 (.376) | 55-78 | 61-101 | 11-18 (.379) | +.003 | |
| Astros | 68-66 (.507) | 63-71 | 86-75 | 18-9 (.667) | +.159 | |
| 2007 | White Sox | 57-75 (.432) | 52-80 | 72-90 | 15-15 (.500) | +.068 |
| Mariners | 73-57 (.562) | 66-64 | 88-75 | 15-18 (.455) | -.107 | |
| Cardinals | 64-64 (.500) | 58-70 | 78-84 | 14-20 (.412) | -.088 | |
| D'Backs | 74-59 (.556) | 63-70 | 90-72 | 16-13 (.552) | -.005 | |
| 2006 | Athletics | 75-56 (.573) | 69-62 | 93-69 | 18-13 (.581) | +.008 |
| Mets | 80-49 (.620) | 74-55 | 97-65 | 17-16 (.515) | -.105 | |
| 2005 | White Sox | 79-48 (.622) | 72-55 | 99-63 | 20-15 (.571) | -.051 |
| D'Backs | 60-72 (.455) | 52-80 | 77-85 | 17-13 (.567) | +.112 | |
| 2004 | Yankees | 81-48 (.628) | 72-57 | 101-61 | 20-13 (.606) | -.022 |
| Reds | 61-67 (.477) | 54-74 | 76-86 | 15-19 (.441) | -.035 | |
| 2003 | Yankees | 81-51 (.614) | 76-56 | 101-61 | 20-10 (.667) | +.053 |
| Royals | 70-62 (.530) | 65-67 | 83-79 | 13-17 (.433) | -.097 | |
| Braves | 85-48 (.639) | 79-54 | 101-61 | 16-13 (.552) | -.087 | |
| Giants | 80-52 (.606) | 73-59 | 100-61 | 20-9 (.690) | +.084 | |
| 2002 | Twins | 80-54 (.597) | 74-60 | 94-67 | 14-13 (.519) | -.078 |
| Dodgers | 77-56 (.579) | 72-61 | 92-70 | 15-14 (.517) | -.062 |
