This is a guest post by Daniel Fabrizio, President of SportsInsights.com, a website focused on providing sports information, data, tools and software for sports bettors.
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It’s reasonable to assume that an extra week of rest, practice and game-planning would help most NFL teams prepare for their next game, but does this translate to Against the Spread (ATS) performance?
Using our Bet Labs software, we analyzed whether teams coming off their bye week have historically provided value for NFL bettors. The results are compiled in the table below and date back to the start of the 2004 NFL season.
This system has been profitable this season as well, as teams coming off a bye have gone 7-3 ATS.* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS record, Units Won and Return on Investment (ROI).
For anyone interested in monitoring this trend, there are currently four Week 8 NFL teams that fit as potential plays:
- Denver Broncos (-6.5) vs. Saints
- Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Raiders
- Miami Dolphins (+1) at Jets
- San Diego Chargers (-3) at Browns
* Lines above reflect spreads from Pinnacle on SportsInsights.com’s NFL Betting Trends page.
Please note that both the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles are also coming off byes. However, they’re playing each other and were therefore not included in current game matches.