San Francisco and Seattle are both tied atop the NFC West with 4-2 records, but they could be in vastly different states of mind heading into their key Thursday Night Football matchup.
The 49ers opened as 7.5-point favorites but have since been bet down to -7, while the total has held tight at a very low 37.5.
What follows is a breakdown of the point spread for the game, with news, notes, quotes and anecdotes to help you make your bets.
Keep in mind: The “edge” is merely a suggestion, and not something we necessarily recommend playing.
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SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS, 8:20 P.M. ET
OPENING POINT SPREAD: San Francisco -7.5 | CURRENT: San Francisco -7 | OVER/UNDER: 37.5 | TV: NFL
SUMMARY: Could this be the biggest defensive struggle we’ve seen all season? If it holds (as it probably will), the over/under of 37.5 will tie for the lowest we’ve seen in 2012. Seattle is second in scoring defense (15.5) while San Francisco is third (15.7), trailing only the Chicago Bears (14.2). Yards per play is probably a better overall judge of the effectiveness of a defense, and these two teams rank first (49ers, 4.6) and second (Seahawks, 4.7) in that category. Still, SportsInsights tells us that 53 percent of the action is on the over.
STORYLINES: As we should all probably know by now, Seattle is the NFL’s best home team and worst road team.
Since 2005, the Seahawks are now 41-20-3 ATS (.672) at CenturyLink Field but just 21-40-1 ATS (.344) away from it. That includes a 15-28-1 mark (.347) as a road underdog.
The 49ers—coming off an embarrassing home blowout to the Giants—have yet to play a divisional game. The Seahawks—straight off an exhilarating comeback victory over the Patriots—are off to an 0-2 start against the NFC West.
In Jim Harbaugh’s short time in San Francisco, he’s 4-0 both straight up and against the spread following a loss, beating opponents by more than 20 points per game (the defense only gives up 2.75 points). He’ll clearly have his team’s full attention after the players appeared to get a little too big-headed prior to the home loss to the Giants.
EDGE: It’s a classic letdown spot for the Seahawks and a classic bounce-back spot for the Niners. Laying a touchdown or more is always a little scary, but we’ll still give the 49ers the “edge” here on the short week.