One of the joys of this website is watching our readers collaborate together to create useful tools and help each other find value in places they might otherwise not.
The question comes up often in every sport, but especially during March Madness: “Would I be better off taking my team’s current futures odds, or should I just bet them on the money line every game and roll over the winnings each time into the next round?”
Now, the money-line rollover spreadsheet (designed using ESPN’s Bracketology, Sagarin power ratings to come up with a projected spread for each matchup, and the spread-to-money line converter at the SBR Forum) will give you a rough estimate of how much payout you’d get by going with the money-line option instead of a futures bet.
All you have to do is select the team you want to calculate (in cell B3 below), and then determine that team’s round-by-round matchups using the same drop-down menus. For most teams, the first round (cell B5 below) will be left blank, unless you’re calculating for a play-in game.
We used Florida (currently a 3-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology playing South Dakota State in the Round of 64) as an example below.
After you project all the matchups, the bottom portion of the spreadsheet automatically gives you an estimate of how much money you’d make round by round. This way, you can easily see how an early-round upset would affect the overall payout. (In Florida’s case, 11th-seeded Belmont upsetting 6th-seeded Pitt would mean it’d be better to take the Gators’ 7-to-1 futures odds at the beginning of the tournament.)
This will all be much more handy once the bracket is set, but for now get familiar with it and keep it in mind for when March Madness rolls around.
Have any questions? Ask them in this thread or email us at email@example.com.
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College hoops Wednesday, courtesy of DonBest.com: