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PrintSome of you have asked about our process for setting college football win totals.
Calculating win odds is a part of it, and by using SBR’s spread-to-money-line converter, we can go through our projected point spreads and determine the percentage chance of the favorite winning each game.
Odds suggest that a 3-point favorite in college football has about a 57 percent chance of winning outright. A 7-point favorite has a 70 percent chance, a 14-point favorite has an 85 percent chance, and so on.
So for each game on a given team’s schedule, you can chalk up “win odds.” If they’re favored by 3, that counts as 0.57 wins for that team and 0.43 wins for the opponent. Add up all the decimals to determine each team’s estimated total victories.
It’s admittedly an imperfect process.
Listed below are 2012 win odds for all 124 college football teams. The top team, somewhat surprisingly, is Oregon at 10.64 projected wins, inching out USC (10.63). The bottom team is hopeless Massachusetts at just 1.17 wins.
To be clear, this is not:
- Power rankings for every conference. Schedule difficulty plays a huge role in determining how many wins each team will record. Oregon’s slightly higher win odds indicate the Ducks have an easier schedule than USC, not that we have them power rated higher than the Trojans.
- Predicted records for every team. It’s only part of the process.
As always, enjoy. And feel free to tell us how foolish we are either on the BTB Forum, on Twitter at @beyondthebets or by email at beyondthebets@gmail.com.
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ACC
Florida State: 10.20
Virginia Tech: 8.85
Clemson: 8.34
Georgia Tech: 7.79
NC State: 7.61
North Carolina: 7.36
Wake Forest: 6.81
Virginia: 6.16
Miami FL: 5.70
Boston College: 4.55
Maryland: 4.20
Duke: 3.80
BIG EAST
Louisville: 8.91
Rutgers: 8.37
South Florida: 7.87
Cincinnati: 7.66
Pittsburgh: 7.00
Connecticut: 5.78
Syracuse: 4.37
Temple: 3.81
BIG TEN
Wisconsin: 9.82
Ohio State: 9.39
Nebraska: 8.80
Michigan: 8.48
Michigan State: 8.47
Iowa: 7.79
Penn State: 6.79
Purdue: 6.65
Illinois: 6.10
Northwestern: 5.83
Minnesota: 4.56
Indiana: 3.66
BIG 12
Oklahoma: 9.90
Texas: 9.02
West Virginia: 8.89
Oklahoma State: 8.78
TCU: 8.42
Kansas State: 7.53
Texas Tech: 6.66
Baylor: 6.29
Iowa State: 3.69
Kansas: 2.45
PAC-12
Oregon: 10.64
USC: 10.63
Stanford: 8.41
Utah: 7.96
Washington: 6.75
California: 6.28
UCLA: 5.89
Washington State: 5.77
Oregon State: 4.41
Arizona: 4.27
Arizona State: 4.15
Colorado: 4.08
SEC
Alabama: 10.37
LSU: 10.10
Georgia: 9.50
South Carolina: 8.80
Arkansas: 8.55
Florida: 8.11
Mississippi State: 7.87
Auburn: 7.35
Tennessee: 7.25
Missouri: 6.85
Texas A&M: 6.10
Vanderbilt: 5.89
Ole Miss: 4.37
Kentucky: 3.65
INDEPENDENTS
BYU: 9.07
Notre Dame: 7.26
Navy: 7.15
Army: 5.88
MOUNTAIN WEST
Boise State: 10.26
Nevada: 7.73
Air Force: 7.50
Wyoming: 6.28
San Diego State: 6.20
Colorado State: 4.95
UNLV: 2.63
New Mexico: 2.51
CONFERENCE USA
Houston: 9.55
UCF: 8.96
Tulsa: 8.42
Southern Miss: 7.74
SMU: 6.95
East Carolina: 6.18
Marshall: 4.64
UTEP: 3.36
Rice: 3.36
UAB: 3.02
Memphis: 2.83
Tulane: 2.09
MAC
Ohio: 9.31
Western Michigan: 8.43
Northern Illinois: 8.23
Toledo: 7.96
Bowling Green: 6.88
Miami (OH): 6.72
Kent State: 5.21
Central Michigan: 4.16
Eastern Michigan: 3.92
Ball State: 3.39
Kent State: 2.82
Akron: 2.45
Massachusetts: 1.17
WAC
Louisiana Tech: 8.68
Utah State: 7.12
San Jose State: 5.93
New Mexico State: 4.74
UTSA: 4.27
Idaho: 4.21
Texas State: 1.62
SUN BELT
FIU: 7.43
Louisiana-Lafayette: 7.09
Arkansas State: 6.72
Western Kentucky: 6.13
Louisiana-Monroe: 5.56
North Texas: 5.41
Troy: 5.08
Middle Tennessee: 4.79
Florida Atlantic: 2.91
South Alabama: 1.95
