Note: For a video of a Las Vegas sportsbook’s reaction to this debacle of a game, click here.
It’s defense versus offense on Monday Night Football, as Seattle’s up-and-coming defense gets a primetime nod against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ fast-paced attack.
Green Bay opened as a 4.5-point favorite and has since been bet down to -3, but that number could jump back up as public money pours in this evening.
What follows is a breakdown of the point spread for the game, with news, notes, quotes and anecdotes to help you make your bets.
Keep in mind: The “edge” is merely a suggestion, and not something we necessarily recommend playing.
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PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS, 8:30 P.M. ET
OPENING POINT SPREAD: Green Bay -4.5 | CURRENT: Green Bay -3 | OVER/UNDER: 46 | TV: ESPN
SUMMARY: Most offshore sportsbooks have moved the Packers to 3-point favorites (instead of 3.5) and juiced that side to -120 or -125, trying to prevent bettors from grabbing Seattle with more than a field goal at home. Public money for primetime games usually comes in late on the favorite, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line jump back up to 3.5 or 4 by kickoff. The Seahawks are 17-8 all-time on Monday Night Football (the best mark in the NFL), and they’re quite possibly the best home team in the league.
STORYLINES: On paper, the Seahawks have exactly the type of team that’s built to slow down high-octane offenses like Green Bay’s. They run the football (sixth in the league), chew up the clock (third in time of possession) and grind opposing offenses to a halt (fourth in total defense).
Plus, do they also have some inside information?
Backup quarterback Matt Flynn likely won’t get any snaps tonight, but the former Packers backup knows that offense well enough that he could (could) be able to help Seattle’s defense prepare. Of course, Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers know this.
“I think the thing people don’t realize is that we do some things to change signals or (we have) dummy signals,” Rodgers told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. “Information that Matt would give them probably isn’t going to have any bearing on the game.”
EDGE: Home underdogs are having a lot of success through the first three weeks, but 77 percent of bettors think that ends tonight and are backing Green Bay. We’ll side with the road favorite here as well and say the Packers have a small edge at -3. This spread was -5 in lines released one week ago, so there might have been a little overreaction to Seattle’s blowout of Dallas, creating a couple points of value.