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PrintAfter three weeks, there are 28 teams from BCS conferences that are still undefeated.
Some of those will fall off this week, and many more will get nipped in the weeks after that. By the end of the regular season, history suggests we’ll probably have two or fewer remaining.
Using our power ratings, adjusted projected point spreads and win odds, we’ve come up with a table below detailing the chances of each team remaining unbeaten as we go through the regular season.
Some items of note:
- Alabama has looked so good in the first three weeks that the Crimson Tide now has the best chance of staying unbeaten (40%) despite playing in the rigorous SEC.
- Eighteen of the 28 teams have essentially zero chance (2% or less) of staying unbeaten through the regular season. For example, Mississippi State has a 45 percent chance of staying unblemished through Week 8, but that plummets to zero as the schedule picks up with games against Alabama and LSU later in the year.
- The most likely opponents for Alabama in the national title game appear to be Oregon (27%) and Florida State (25%). Of course, that’s not including the conference championship games that both teams will have to win.
- The surprise team on this list? That’d belong to Louisville, which has a 7 percent chance of going through the weak Big East unscathed.
- Urban Meyer and Ohio State have an 11 percent chance of making this ‘bold’ prediction from August come true.
- The quickest team to fall off should be Arizona, which is a 21.5-point underdog at Oregon this weekend. Win odds say underdogs of 21 or more have zero chance of winning the game (even though we see a couple upsets of that nature each year).
* * *
1. CC = Conference Championship
2. The percentage indicates the likelihood of that team being unbeaten after the week at the top.
3. An asterisk indicates a bye week.
4. Futures odds were taken from sportsbook.ag.
| TEAM | AP Rank | FUTURES | WEEK 4 | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | +200 | 100% | 100% | 100%* | 87% | 70% | 70% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | CC |
| LSU | 2 | +300 | 88% | 88% | 58% | 49% | 39% | 39%* | 17% | 17% | 17% | 14% | CC |
| Oregon | 3 | +800 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100%* | 91% | 91% | 44% | 38% | 34% | 27% | CC |
| Florida St | 4 | +800 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 56% | 51% | 51% | 51%* | 32% | 32% | 25% | CC |
| Georgia | 5 | +1000 | 88% | 71% | 36% | 36%* | 36% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 12% | CC |
| Oklahoma | 6 | +1500 | 85% | 85%* | 68% | 42% | 42% | 27% | 23% | 20% | 9% | 7% | 4% |
| S. Carolina | 7 | +2500 | 79% | 78% | 39% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2%* | 2% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| West Virginia | 8 | +2000 | 100% | 85% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 21%* | 16% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| Stanford | 9 | +4000 | 100%* | 51% | 38% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 0% | CC |
| Clemson | 10 | +5000 | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7%* | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| Notre Dame | 11 | +2500 | 63% | 63%* | 56% | 39% | 30% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 3% |
| Texas | 12 | +3000 | 100%* | 47% | 27% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5%* | 4% | 2% |
| Florida | 14 | +4000 | 100% | 100%* | 34% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 1% | CC |
| Kansas St | 15 | +10000 | 15% | 15%* | 15% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0%* | 0% |
| Ohio St | 16 | N/A | 100% | 50% | 37% | 37% | 32% | 25% | 25% | 25%* | 15% | 11% | CC |
| TCU | 17 | +10000 | 89% | 76% | 63% | 31% | 25% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1%* | 0% | 0% |
| UCLA | 19 | +20000 | 73% | 73% | 42% | 31% | 31%* | 19% | 14% | 11% | 4% | 2% | CC |
| Louisville | 20 | +10000 | 84% | 71% | 71%* | 44% | 33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | 18%* | 16% | 7% |
| Arizona | 22 | +30000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%* | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mississippi St | 23 | +20000 | 100% | 100%* | 84% | 45% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Iowa St | RV | None | 100%* | 50% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Texas Tech | RV | None | 100%* | 50% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Baylor | RV | +30000 | 74% | 11% | 11%* | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rutgers | RV | None | 30% | 30%* | 24% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 15%* | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| Cincinnati | RV | +50000 | 100%* | 38% | 32% | 32% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Minnesota | N/A | None | 50% | 15% | 15%* | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Northwestern | RV | None | 100% | 99% | 49% | 30% | 11% | 7% | 7%* | 1% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Oregon St | RV | None | 27% | 10% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
