Back in early June, when we released projected point spreads for all 798 college football games, half of Penn State’s games had lines of less than a touchdown either way.
In other words, a lot of “swing games.”
This wasn’t really anything new for the defensive-minded, quarterback-challenged Nittany Lions. Half of their games in 2011 ended within a six-point margin.
But that was also well before July 23, when the NCAA brought the hammer down on the Penn State program because of the Freeh Report findings. And it was also before nine (and counting) key Penn State players freely transferred to other schools, and the players left behind labeled those who fled as “selfish” and “cowards.”
As a result of all this, Penn State’s win total dropped from 6.5 to 5.5.
WHERE WILL THE EXTRA WIN(S) GO?
Last we checked, there are no ties in college football.
If you take a win away from one team, it has to go to another.
Listed in the table below are six teams previously slated to play “swing games” against Penn State in 2012. You can bet that most, if not all, of those games will end up with point spreads more in favor of Penn State’s opponents by the time kickoff rolls around.
If the Nittany Lions don’t win as many games in 2012 as originally expected, there’s a great chance the extra victories go to this pack of six teams.
And one extra game is huge in a win total bet on a 12-game regular season.
Yet, curiously, none of those six teams have seen much of a change from their original 2012 win totals at 5Dimes. The juice has shifted by about 10 cents in a couple of cases, but other than that, not much action.
Would it be a good idea to bet the over on one or more of these teams? Possibly.
It’s at least worth taking into account before placing your bets.
|TEAM||5DIMES WIN TOTAL||SPREAD VS. PENN STATE|
|Virginia||6.5 (over -115)||-2.5 home (Week 2)|
|Illinois||6.5 (over -140)||-1 home (Week 5)|
|Iowa||7.5 (over -105)||-6 home (Week 8)|
|Ohio State||9 (over -140)||-6 away (Week 9)|
|Purdue||6.5 (over +145)||-3 home (Week 10)|
|Wisconsin||9.5 (over -111)||-5 away (Week 13)|