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PrintNote: This is an outdated version of our Survivor Pool Strategy Guide. For the MOST RECENT version, click here.
It never hurts to plan ahead.
In the NFL, a 6-point spread indicates about a 70 percent chance of the favorite winning the game outright. If you could give yourself at least a 70 percent chance of advancing each week in an NFL Survivor Pool, you’d take it, right?
Survivor pools are about as big of a crapshoot as you can find, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to strategize.
We’ll let you figure out your own survivor pool strategy based on the games below, but we’ve used Cantor Gaming’s projected point spreads for 2012 to give you a week-by-week list of every game featuring at least a 6-point spread.
Based on the list, Week 9 will be the most difficult to navigate (if you even make it that far).
In Week 9, a handful of good teams like the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets are all on bye. Plus, most of the games are fairly evenly matched. Projected good teams will play other good teams, and projected bad teams will play other bad teams.
Take a look at some of the games:
Cowboys-Falcons
Eagles-Saints
Steelers-Giants
Broncos-Bengals
Colts-Dolphins
Vikings-Seahawks
Raiders-Buccaneers
As a result, there are only two games (Cardinals-Packers and Bills-Texans) with a projected point spread of six or more.
In another odd twist, the week with the most projected point spreads of six or more is the last, Week 17. Nine games should be fairly lopsided in that week, but by then it’s worthless, as 99.9 percent of survivor pools have already been decided.
We’ll have plenty more to offer on survivor pool strategy for the 2012 NFL season in the days and weeks to come, but for now take a look at the list below and feel free to start planning your strategy.
But, remember, don’t get too cute with it.
* * *
WEEK 1 (7)
Bears -10 vs. Colts
Lions -9 vs. Rams
Packers -6 vs. 49ers
Texans -7 vs. Dolphins
Patriots -6.5 at Titans
Saints -9.5 vs. Redskins
Eagles -9 at Browns
WEEK 2 (5)
Patriots -13 vs. Cardinals
Packers -7.5 vs. Bears
Bengals -7 vs. Browns
Giants -9 vs. Buccaneers
Chargers -6 vs. Titans
WEEK 3 (4)
Bears -7.5 vs. Rams
Cowboys -7 vs. Buccaneers
Packers -6 at Seahawks
Saints -7 vs. Chiefs
WEEK 4 (5)
Ravens -10 vs. Browns
Broncos -7 vs. Raiders
Lions -9 vs. Vikings
Packers -7 vs. Saints
Texans -7.5 vs. Titans
WEEK 5 (4)
49ers -7.5 vs. Bills
Giants -9.5 vs. Browns
Patriots -7 vs. Broncos
Packers -9.5 at Colts
WEEK 6 (3)
Falcons -6.5 vs. Raiders
Jets -7.5 vs. Colts
Patriots -6 at Seahawks
WEEK 7 (4)
Packers -9.5 at Rams
Patriots -8 vs. Jets
Giants -7 vs. Redskins
49ers -7 vs. Seahawks
WEEK 8 (6)
Eagles -6.5 vs. Falcons
Lions -6.5 vs. Seahawks
Packers -14 vs. Jaguars
Titans -6 vs. Colts
Patriots -11 at Rams
Steelers -7 vs. Redskins
WEEK 9 (2)
Packers -13 vs. Cardinals
Texans -7 vs. Bills
WEEK 10 (4)
Ravens -8 vs. Raiders
Patriots -11.5 vs. Bills
Steelers -7 vs. Chiefs
49ers -9 vs. Rams
WEEK 11 (5)
Falcons -6 vs. Cardinals
Panthers -6 vs. Buccaneers
Cowboys -7.5 vs. Browns
Texans -10.5 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -14 vs. Colts
WEEK 12 (4)
Eagles -7 vs. Panthers
Bears -7.5 vs. Vikings
Steelers -6 at Browns
Cowboys -6 vs. Redskins
WEEK 13 (5)
Jets -6.5 vs. Cardinals
Broncos -8.5 vs. Buccaneers
Lions -9.5 vs. Colts
Packers -13.5 vs. Vikings
Patriots -6.5 at Dolphins
WEEK 14 (4)
Bills -6 vs. Rams
Packers -7.5 vs. Lions
Patriots -6.5 vs. Texans
49ers -7 vs. Dolphins
WEEK 15 (5)
Eagles -7 vs. Bengals
Texans -10.5 vs. Colts
Dolphins -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -6.5 vs. 49ers
Saints -10 vs. Buccaneers
WEEK 16 (7)
Steelers -6 vs. Bengals
Broncos -8.5 vs. Browns
Packers -11 vs. Titans
Texans -10 vs. Vikings
Chiefs -6 vs. Colts
Patriots -9 at Jaguars
Eagles -9 vs. Redskins
WEEK 17 (9)
49ers -9.5 vs. Cardinals
Falcons -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
Saints -7 vs. Panthers
Steelers -10 vs. Browns
Packers -7.5 at Vikings
Titans -7 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -10 vs. Dolphins
Chargers -6 vs. Raiders
Seahawks -7.5 vs. Rams
