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PrintWe really do know the meaning of Survivor Pools, don’t we?
The Atlanta Falcons, last week’s selection, slept through most of their meeting with the Oakland Raiders last weekend before winning on a last-second field goal to make us 6-for-6 in this little experiment.
Before going any further, here’s the song of the week.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s move on.
USING POINT SPREAD PROJECTIONS TO HELP WITH SURVIVOR POOLS
All we’re doing is using Cantor Gaming’s point spreads for every regular-season game, tweaking them based on year-to-date performance after every week to come up with new projected point spreads, and then attempting to have at least a touchdown favorite each week while choosing the most optimal route through the season.
Week 1 pick: Lions over Rams (win, but barely)
Week 2 pick: Bengals over Browns (win)
Week 3 pick: Bears over Rams (win)
Week 4 pick: Ravens over Browns (win)
Week 5 pick: Giants over Browns (win)
Week 6 pick: Falcons over Raiders (win, but barely)
In Week 7, there are quite a few options, including one that might never be available again.
The Vikings, for instance, are 6.5-point home favorites over the Cardinals. Should you take them? At least one reputable outlet definitely thinks so, but really it comes down to how much risk you want to take. There are much “safer” options out there (like New England), and if the majority of your opponents are opting to go that route, it could be a good “risk vs. reward” decision to go with Minnesota.
But the original purpose of this was simple: Select at least a touchdown favorite every week for as long as possible. So, we’ll stick with the Patriots -10.5 at home against the Jets.
Both teams are 3-3, but New England’s losses have come by a combined four points and Bill Belichick is 17-9 lifetime against New York.
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Below, you’ll find the updated week-by-week list of every team projected to be favored by at least a touchdown (or, later in the season, 6 points). As with any Survivor Pool Strategy Guide, the same disclaimer still applies.
Disclaimer: Survivor pools are wildly random, and upsets happen all the time in the NFL. That’s what makes them so fun. The following is merely an attempt to most optimally plan for survivor pools, NOT a foolproof strategy by any means.
A few notes:
- The bolded games are the selections for each particular week.
- Games in red represent a change from the most recent edition of this strategy guide.
- In weeks where more than one game is bolded, both teams are an option, but the one with the asterisk is the most optimal.
- Notice that we saved some of the worst teams on the list (Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers, etc.) for the final few weeks. If you’re still alive by then, you won’t have the greatest teams to choose from, but at least those teams are projected to be significant favorites.
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Already used: Lions, Bengals, Bears, Ravens, Giants, Falcons
WEEK 7 (2)
49ers -7.5 vs. Seahawks
Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets*
Texans -6.5 vs. Ravens
Vikings -6.5 vs. Cardinals
Bears -6.5 vs. Lions
WEEK 8 (3)
Packers -12 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -8.5 vs. Rams (in London)
Bears -7.5 vs. Panthers
WEEK 9 (3)
Packers -8 vs. Cardinals
Texans -11 vs. Bills
Chargers -7 vs. Chiefs
WEEK 10 (4)
Patriots -11 vs. Bills
Steelers -8.5 vs. Chiefs
Ravens -8 vs. Raiders
49ers -9.5 vs. Rams
WEEK 11 (4)
Cowboys -8 vs. Browns
Patriots -10 vs. Colts
Texans -14 vs. Jaguars
Falcons -9 vs. Cardinals
WEEK 12 (3)
Eagles -7 vs. Panthers
Patriots -7 at Jets
Bears -6.5 vs. Vikings
WEEK 13 (4)
Broncos -7 vs. Buccaneers
Falcons -7 vs. Saints
Packers -7.5 vs. Vikings
Texans -9 at Titans
WEEK 14 (3)
49ers -9 vs. Dolphins
Packers -7.5 vs. Lions
Seahawks -6.5 vs. Cardinals
WEEK 15 (3)
Saints -7 vs. Buccaneers
Texans -11.5 vs. Colts
Chargers -6 vs. Panthers
WEEK 16 (6)
Packers -13.5 vs. Titans
Steelers -6 vs. Bengals
Patriots -8 at Jaguars
Texans -10 vs. Vikings
Broncos -8 vs. Browns
Eagles -7 vs. Redskins
WEEK 17 (WHO CARES)
If you’re still alive by this week, and you haven’t won your Survivor Pool, well, let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.
