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PrintNote: This is an outdated version of our Survivor Pool Strategy Guide. For the MOST RECENT version, click here.
Four weeks in the books, and there’s a good chance at least 80 percent of your NFL Survivor Pool is already eliminated. But that doesn’t really mean anything yet, of course, because you need 100 percent of your competitors gone before you win any money.
In Week 5, there are a few options (as you can see in the extensive list below), but how about the New York Giants at home against Cleveland? We’ve successfully faded the Browns in two of the first four weeks, so is there any chance they pull off a shocker at the Meadowlands?
Well, actually, yes. But that’s what makes this a Survivor Pool.
“Don’t be misled by Cleveland’s record. They’re a good young team,” Giants coach Tom Coughlin said this week. “They play hard, they battle hard … They’ve played tough in all of their games.”
It was Coughlin’s Giants, in fact, who lost to the Browns on Monday Night Football in 2008 a year after winning the Super Bowl.
Sound familiar?
It’s no gimme, but Coughlin should be able to use that previous loss as motivation to avoid a lackluster performance. There are no double-digit favorites on the Week 5 card, meaning this 7.5-point spread is one of the biggest.
USING POINT SPREAD PROJECTIONS TO HELP WITH SURVIVOR POOLS
All we’re doing is using Cantor Gaming’s point spreads for every regular-season game, tweaking them based on year-to-date performance after every week to come up with new projected point spreads, and then attempting to have at least a touchdown favorite each week while choosing the most optimal route through the season.
Week 1 pick: Lions over Rams (win, but barely)
Week 2 pick: Bengals over Browns (win)
Week 3 pick: Bears over Rams (win)
Week 4 pick: Ravens over Browns (win)
Below, you’ll find the updated week-by-week list of every team projected to be favored by at least a touchdown (or, later in the season, 6 points). As with any Survivor Pool Strategy Guide, the same disclaimer still applies.
Disclaimer: Survivor pools are wildly random, and upsets happen all the time in the NFL. That’s what makes them so fun. The following is merely an attempt to most optimally plan for survivor pools, NOT a foolproof strategy by any means.
A few notes:
- The bolded games are the selections for each particular week.
- Games in red represent a change from the most recent edition of this strategy guide.
- In weeks where more than one game is bolded, both teams are an option, but the one with the asterisk is the most optimal.
- Notice that we saved some of the worst teams on the list (Bills, Chargers, Steelers, etc.) for the final few weeks. If you’re still alive by then, you won’t have the greatest teams to choose from, but at least those teams are projected to be significant favorites.
* * *
Already used: Lions, Bengals, Bears, Ravens
WEEK 5 (4)
Packers -7 at Colts
Giants -7.5 vs. Browns
Patriots -7 vs. Broncos
49ers -9.5 vs. Bills
Texans -8 at Jets
WEEK 6 (1)
Falcons -9 vs. Raiders
WEEK 7 (4)
49ers -8.5 vs. Seahawks
Packers -8.5 at Rams
Patriots -9.5 vs. Jets
Giants -7 vs. Redskins
WEEK 8 (3)
Packers -13.5 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -8.5 vs. Rams (in London)
Steelers -7 vs. Redskins
WEEK 9 (4)
Ravens -7.5 at Browns
Packers -9 vs. Cardinals
Texans -10 vs. Bills
Chargers -7 vs. Chiefs
WEEK 10 (4)
Patriots -10 vs. Bills
Steelers -8 vs. Chiefs
Ravens -10 vs. Raiders
49ers -11.5 vs. Rams
WEEK 11 (4)
Cowboys -9 vs. Browns
Patriots -13 vs. Colts
Texans -14 vs. Jaguars
Falcons -7 vs. Cardinals
WEEK 12 (4)
Cowboys -7 vs. Redskins
Eagles -7 vs. Panthers*
Cardinals -6.5 vs. Rams
Steelers -6.5 at Browns
WEEK 13 (8)
Broncos -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
Bills -7 vs. Jaguars
Falcons -7 vs. Saints
Lions -7 vs. Colts
Packers -10 vs. Vikings
49ers -8 at Rams
Patriots -7 at Dolphins
Texans -7 at Titans
WEEK 14 (3)
Bills -7 vs. Rams
49ers -10 vs. Dolphins
Packers -9 vs. Lions
WEEK 15 (3)
Saints -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
Texans -14 vs. Colts
Chargers -6 vs. Panthers
WEEK 16 (6)
Packers -11.5 vs. Titans
Steelers -6 vs. Bengals
Patriots -7 at Jaguars
Texans -12 vs. Vikings
Broncos -8 vs. Browns
Eagles -7 vs. Redskins
WEEK 17 (WHO CARES)
If you’re still alive by this week, and you haven’t won your Survivor Pool, well, let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.
