NFL Survivor Pool Strategy, Part II: Looking ahead for logical picks (hopefully) every week

Note: This is an outdated version of our Survivor Pool Strategy Guide. For the MOST RECENT version, click here.

On Saturday, to help with your NFL survivor pool strategy in 2012, we gave you a list of every game that Cantor Gaming projects to have at least a 6-point spread.

Today, let’s take it a step further.

First, though, a disclaimer: Survivor pools are wildly random, and upsets happen all the time in the NFL. That’s what makes them so fun. The following is merely an attempt to most optimally plan for survivor pools, NOT a foolproof strategy by any means. For instance, as you’ll see in the table at the bottom of this post, even by picking heavy favorites each week there’s still a 60 percent chance you’ll be out of it by Week 5.

There are 23 teams projected to be favored by six or more points at least once in 2012, giving you more than enough options to have a significant favorite on your side every week. The Patriots and Packers are projected favorites of six or more a combined 25 times in 2012, while teams like the Seahawks, Chiefs and Bills will only be favored by that much once apiece.

There are also some odd cases.

The Steelers are supposed to be favored by at least six points five times, but the first doesn’t occur until Week 8 at home against the Redskins. The Browns will be underdogs of at least six points eight times, and four of those occur within the first five weeks (we pick against them three times in that span).

Here’s a list of the amount of times each team will be favored by six or more points:

Patriots: 13
Packers: 12
Texans: 6
49ers: 5
Eagles: 5
Steelers: 5
Lions: 4
Saints: 4
Bears: 3
Broncos: 3
Cowboys: 3
Falcons: 3
Giants: 3
Chargers: 2
Jets: 2
Ravens: 2
Titans: 2
Bengals: 1
Bills: 1
Chiefs: 1
Dolphins: 1
Panthers: 1
Seahawks: 1

Now, our job is to have a fairly heavy favorite on our side every week. The week-by-week list below does just that.

A few notes:

The bolded games are the selections for each particular week.
In weeks where more than one game is bolded, both teams are an option, but the one with the asterisk is the most optimal.
Notice that we saved some of the worse teams on the list (Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers, Chiefs, etc.) for the final few weeks. If you’re still alive by then, you won’t have the greatest teams to choose from, but at least those teams are projected to be significant favorites.
If the Browns or Rams (fade material in Weeks 1-5) are much better than expected in the early weeks and pull off an upset, this strategy goes down the tubes.

WEEK 1 (7)

Bears -10 vs. Colts
Lions -9 vs. Rams
Packers -6 vs. 49ers
Texans -7 vs. Dolphins
Patriots -6.5 at Titans
Saints -9.5 vs. Redskins
Eagles -9 at Browns

WEEK 2 (5)

Patriots -13 vs. Cardinals
Packers -7.5 vs. Bears
Bengals -7 vs. Browns*
Giants -9 vs. Buccaneers
Chargers -6 vs. Titans

WEEK 3 (4)

Bears -7.5 vs. Rams
Cowboys -7 vs. Buccaneers
Packers -6 at Seahawks
Saints -7 vs. Chiefs

WEEK 4 (5)

Ravens -10 vs. Browns
Broncos -7 vs. Raiders
Lions -9 vs. Vikings
Packers -7 vs. Saints
Texans -7.5 vs. Titans

WEEK 5 (4)

49ers -7.5 vs. Bills
Giants -9.5 vs. Browns
Patriots -7 vs. Broncos
Packers -9.5 at Colts

WEEK 6 (3)

Falcons -6.5 vs. Raiders
Jets -7.5 vs. Colts
Patriots -6 at Seahawks

WEEK 7 (4)

Packers -9.5 at Rams
Patriots -8 vs. Jets
Giants -7 vs. Redskins
49ers -7 vs. Seahawks

WEEK 8 (6)

Eagles -6.5 vs. Falcons
Lions -6.5 vs. Seahawks
Packers -14 vs. Jaguars
Titans -6 vs. Colts
Patriots -11 at Rams
Steelers -7 vs. Redskins

WEEK 9 (2)

Packers -13 vs. Cardinals
Texans -7 vs. Bills

WEEK 10 (4)

Ravens -8 vs. Raiders
Patriots -11.5 vs. Bills
Steelers -7 vs. Chiefs
49ers -9 vs. Rams

WEEK 11 (5)

Falcons -6 vs. Cardinals
Panthers -6 vs. Buccaneers
Cowboys -7.5 vs. Browns
Texans -10.5 vs. Jaguars*
Patriots -14 vs. Colts

WEEK 12 (4)

Eagles -7 vs. Panthers
Bears -7.5 vs. Vikings
Steelers -6 at Browns
Cowboys -6 vs. Redskins

WEEK 13 (5)

Jets -6.5 vs. Cardinals
Broncos -8.5 vs. Buccaneers*
Lions -9.5 vs. Colts
Packers -13.5 vs. Vikings
Patriots -6.5 at Dolphins

WEEK 14 (4)

Bills -6 vs. Rams
Packers -7.5 vs. Lions
Patriots -6.5 vs. Texans
49ers -7 vs. Dolphins

WEEK 15 (5)

Eagles -7 vs. Bengals
Texans -10.5 vs. Colts
Dolphins -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -6.5 vs. 49ers
Saints -10 vs. Buccaneers*

WEEK 16 (7)

Steelers -6 vs. Bengals
Broncos -8.5 vs. Browns
Packers -11 vs. Titans
Texans -10 vs. Vikings
Chiefs -6 vs. Colts
Patriots -9 at Jaguars
Eagles -9 vs. Redskins

WEEK 17 (9)

49ers -9.5 vs. Cardinals
Falcons -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
Saints -7 vs. Panthers
Steelers -10 vs. Browns
Packers -7.5 at Vikings
Titans -7 vs. Jaguars
Patriots -10 vs. Dolphins
Chargers -6 vs. Raiders
Seahawks -7.5 vs. Rams*

* * *

Curious what your chances of advancing each week would be by following this strategy? Take a look at the table below. (Notice how quickly it falls at the beginning even by picking heavy favorites. That’s why the majority of people are eliminated within the first few weeks every year.)

*Implied Probability is the chances of the favorite winning the game outright based on the point spread.
**Undefeated Odds are your chances of still being alive after any given week.

WEEK	SPREAD	IMPLIED PROBABILITY	UNDEFEATED ODDS
1	-9	0.81	81%
2	-7	0.75	61%
3	-7.5	0.78	47%
4	-10	0.84	40%
5	-9.5	0.81	32%
6	-6.5	0.72	23%
7	-7	0.75	17%
8	-7	0.75	13%
9	-13	0.89	12%
10	-11.5	0.88	10%
11	-10.5	0.86	9%
12	-7	0.75	7%
13	-8.5	0.8	5%
14	-6	0.71	4%
15	-10	0.84	3%
16	-6	0.71	2%
17	-7.5	0.78	2%

Tags: NFL | NFL Survivor Pool Strategy | NFL Survivor Pools