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NFL Preseason Is Over: Do exhibition games really not carry over into regular season?

August 31, 2012

Update: In the 2012 NFL preseason, the Seahawks were the only team to go 4-0 ATS, while the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and Cardinals all went 0-4 ATS. (Arizona actually went 0-5.) Unfortunately, no teams were at either extreme with over/unders, which appears to be the more relevant finding.

Q: I hear all the time that preseason in the NFL has no correlation to the regular season, but is it really true? What about in relation to sports betting? I happen to be a Lions fan, and our great preseason last year carried into the first few weeks of the regular season, where we continued to cover the spread. Do you think this is consistent? How do teams that finish 4-0 ATS in the preseason do in the first few weeks of the regular season?

— Peter, from Detroit

A: Hmm, could this be the start of a “MythBusters” edition of the mailbag?

To tackle this question, Peter, we looked at not only your question but also three other categories, all since the NFL realigned in 2002.

  1. Teams that went 4-0 ATS in the preseason (13 teams)
  2. Teams that went 0-4 ATS in the preseason (20 teams)
  3. Teams that went 4-0 O/U in the preseason (15 teams)
  4. Teams that went 0-4 O/U in the preseason (18 teams)

That resulted in a total sample size of 66 teams, all of which were at the “extremes” either one way or the other. Do oddsmakers take these types of teams into account when setting lines early in the season? Probably not. With NFL teams, is there any momentum created or destroyed by an exceptionally great or poor preseason?

To answer those questions, we looked at both the corresponding record in the first game of the season and the corresponding record in the first month (or first four games) of the season.

The answers can all be found in detail below, but here’s the quick conclusion.

Yes, there does appear to be at least some correlation between preseason and early regular season in all four categories.

4-0 ATS IN PRESEASON (13 TEAMS)

First Week: 7-6 ATS (.538)
First Month: 26-24-2 ATS (.520)
Conclusion: Very low, if any, correlation

0-4 ATS IN PRESEASON (20 TEAMS)

First Week: 9-11 ATS (.450)
First Month: 35-44-2 ATS (.443)
Conclusion: Very low, if any, correlation

4-0 O/U IN PRESEASON (15 TEAMS)

First Week: 9-6 O/U (.600)
First Month: 34-25-1 O/U (.576)
Conclusion: Moderate correlation

0-4 O/U IN PRESEASON (18 TEAMS)

First Week: 5-13 O/U (.278)
First Month: 25-46-1 O/U (.352)
Conclusion: High correlation

So, as you can see, there seems to be much more correlation early in the season on over/unders than point spreads. Especially with teams that either struggle to score, have a good defense, or both.

Perhaps oddsmakers are slow to catch up on scoring trends that could be picked up in the exhibition games? Perhaps the preseason can tell us more about the regular season’s opening month than we realize?

It’s still a relatively small sample size, so it’s tough to know for sure. But … perhaps.

*Have any question you’re curious about and want answered? Feel free to email us at beyondthebets@gmail.com.

2012 ‘EXTREME’ PRESEASON TEAMS

Cardinals: 0-5 ATS
Dolphins: 0-4 ATS
Jets: 0-4 ATS
Patriots: 0-4 ATS
Seahawks: 4-0 ATS

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