Every NFL Week 1 line has moved at least a half point from its opening number.
That’s not particularly surprising given that opening-week lines have been out for several months, and also because lines move frequently in the NFL regardless of the number.
But which numbers are most likely to move off the opener?
Researchers from Ohio University, as part of a study analyzing the efficiency of the NFL betting market, tracked line moves for every number between 1 and 14 points. The sample was taken from the 2006 through 2010 seasons.
As you can see in the chart below, lines move more than 55 percent of the time at every number listed. The numbers that are most likely to move are 7.5, 10.5 and 4. The number least likely to move?
You guessed it: 3.
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