Tweet
Mail
PrintThe response to our College Football Headquarters was overwhelmingly positive, so we decided to compile the bulk of our offseason NFL betting coverage into one post for easy reference.
Below, you’ll find everything you need to know to get you ready for the NFL season. Later this month, we’ll be publishing our division previews and projections, so be on the lookout for that.
Feel free to bookmark this page and refer to it often in the weeks ahead.
* * *
WIN TOTALS
- Cantor Gaming became the first Las Vegas sportsbook to release NFL win totals.
- We conducted win totals research by going back through results from the last 10 years (since 2002). The findings suggest that your best bet is to play ‘over’ on totals of six or less and under on totals of 10 or more.
- Betting unders of 6 or less blindly has hit at a 65 percent rate.
- Here is an odds compare table with a listing of win totals at five different books both offshore and in Las Vegas.
- The early action came in on the Broncos’ over after they signed Peyton Manning. Since then, the Broncos haven’t gotten much love. Updated win totals with all big moves can be found by clicking here.
- Our projected win totals and how they compare to numbers released by sportsbooks.
FUTURES
- The Patriots opened as Super Bowl favorites a day after losing to the Giants.
- Lucky’s Sportsbook in Las Vegas was the first to release NFL divisional odds, opening the Eagles as the favorites to win the NFC East title. Two weeks later, Sportsbook became the first offshore to post numbers.
- The Broncos were once listed at 50/1 to win the Super Bowl.
- Division most likely to produce the Super Bowl champion? Oddsmakers suggest it’s the NFC North.
- Speaking of divisions, the NFC West has been the biggest underachiever since realignment in 2002.
POINT SPREADS
- Cantor Gaming released point spreads for 240 games. (Week 17 games were not included.)
- The Patriots and Packers are favored by more than a touchdown per game, on average.
- Using Cantor’s point spreads, we projected win/loss records for all 32 teams.
- If favorites won every game, the standings would look like this.
- Worth a bookmark: Team-by-team schedules with point spreads, win totals, projections, etc.
ANALYSIS
- A scholarly article set to be published in July 2013 had some interesting NFL Week 1 findings.
- Blindly betting unders in Week 1 generates a significant return.
- Playoff teams from the year before are generally overvalued in Week 1 and are worth fading.
- Our initial Public Perception Rankings, using TV appearances as a guide.
- Colin Cowherd provides his analysis on all 32 teams.
- Two teams that could be interesting for differing reasons? The Bucs and Chiefs.
- Does turnovers equal turnaround? A few teams sure hope so.
