Mail
PrintNote: Considering the Giants are favored by 3.5 points at BetOnline in tonight’s NFL opener against the Cowboys, we figured this previous mailbag was particularly relevant.
Q: I had a really simple betting theory in the NFL that worked for me last year and was wondering if there’s any truth to it. Whenever a team was favored by 2.5 points, I took the favorite. Whenever it was a 3.5-point line, I took the underdog. I didn’t do it in every single scenario but I’d guess I hit about 60 percent. I assumed that so many games end on exactly a field goal in the NFL that it’s best to be on the right side of that number either way. Do you think this holds up over a bigger sample?
— Keith, from somewhere
A: Thanks for the question, Keith. First instinct was that, no, this theory wouldn’t hold up over a large sample of games. It just feels too easy, doesn’t it?
It’s great that you had success betting it in 2011, but be careful following it going forward.
Using SDQL at SportsDatabase.com, we looked back at the past decade of NFL games since the league realigned in 2002. Over that time frame, favorites of exactly 2.5 points are 57-78 ATS (.422), while 3.5-point underdogs are 112-107 ATS (.511).
Neither was a profitable betting angle. In fact, you’d have been far better off fading 2.5-point favorites and siding with the underdogs instead.
The year-by-year listings are below. Notice that 2.5-point favorites are only 61-74 straight-up since 2002. Also, in case you’re curious, favorites of exactly a field goal are 256-188 straight-up, but just 201-208-35 ATS (.491).
*SU = straight up; ATS = against the spread
NFL TEAMS FAVORED BY EXACTLY 2.5 POINTS, SINCE 2002
2011: 9-12 SU | 9-12 ATS
2010: 11-9 SU | 11-9 ATS
2009: 8-5 SU | 6-7 ATS
2008: 6-4 SU | 4-6 ATS
2007: 5-4 SU | 5-4 ATS
2006: 7-8 SU | 7-8 ATS
2005: 5-6 SU | 5-6 ATS
2004: 2-7 SU | 2-7 ATS
2003: 6-6 SU | 6-6 ATS
2002: 2-13 SU | 2-13 ATS
TOTAL: 61-74 SU | 57-78 ATS (.422)
NFL TEAMS FAVORED BY EXACTLY 3.5 POINTS, SINCE 2002
2011: 16-9 SU | 9-16 ATS
2010: 15-7 SU | 13-9 ATS
2009: 13-12 SU | 11-14 ATS
2008: 14-8 SU | 10-12 ATS
2007: 17-8 SU | 13-12 ATS
2006: 11-10 SU | 7-14 ATS
2005: 16-3 SU | 14-5 ATS
2004: 20-6 SU | 15-11 ATS
2003: 7-4 SU | 6-5 ATS
2002: 15-8 SU | 9-14 ATS
TOTAL: 144-75 SU | 107-112 ATS (.489)
NFL TEAMS FAVORED BY EXACTLY A FIELD GOAL, SINCE 2002
2011: 15-11 SU | 13-11-2 ATS
2010: 27-15 SU | 20-19-3 ATS
2009: 14-12 SU | 12-12-2 ATS
2008: 26-19 SU | 23-20-2 ATS
2007: 25-26 SU | 16-28-7 ATS
2006: 17-26 SU | 12-30-1 ATS
2005: 42-21 SU | 37-21-5 ATS
2004: 21-21 SU | 15-23-4 ATS
2003: 36-17 SU | 28-19-6 ATS
2002: 33-20 SU | 25-25-3 ATS
TOTAL: 256-188 SU | 201-208-35 ATS (.491)
Have a question YOU want answered? Feel free to email us at beyondthebets@gmail.com.
