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PrintThere’s plenty of information available on NFL key numbers, both with point spreads and totals, but far less has been done on second halves.
Recently, we’ve had a few requests for second-half information, and we’ll attempt to provide as much data as we reasonably can over the next few weeks leading up to the regular season. (Note: Our Flintstones-like research style is highly inefficient, so if you’re reading this and have strong data-collecting methods, we’d appreciate the help.)
We analyzed a sample of roughly 2,300 games (since 2003) and found the following:
- Most common 2nd-half point totals: 17 (8.5%), 24 (7.5%), 10 (6.7%) and 20 (6.3%)
- 32.2% of all second halves finish between 17 and 24 points.
- There are 24 points or less in 68.4% of second halves.
- There are 17 points or more in 67.2% of second halves.
As you might expect, some numbers are worth fighting for and others are not. There is a much bigger difference between 17 and 17.5 than there is between, say, 18 and 18.5. Or 22 and 22.5. And so on.
Below is a frequency chart for second half points scored over the last five years.
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NFL 2nd half points scored
