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NBA Overachievers: San Antonio Spurs notorious for exceeding win total expectations

October 17, 2012

The San Antonio Spurs exceeded expectations last season.

Then again, the Spurs exceed expectations pretty much every season.

Most experts, including the oddsmakers who set their season win total at 40.5, believed the aging Spurs wouldn’t be able to keep pace in the condensed schedule format caused by the NBA lockout. But that wasn’t the case at all, and San Antonio went on to post a league-best 50-16 regular-season record before falling to Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals.

General manager R.C. Buford, coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs’ veteran roster have mastered the ability to maneuver through the regular season, so we shouldn’t have been surprised.

San Antonio has gone over its season win total in six of the last seven years, better than any other team in the league. The only setback came in 2009, when they came short of their 54.5 win total by finishing 50-32.

SEASONWIN TOTALWINS+/- RESULTS
AVERAGES52.556+3.5
200558.563+4.5
200656.558+1.5
200755.556+0.5
200852.554+1.5
200954.550-4.5
201049.561+11.5
201140.550+9.5

This year, San Antonio opened with a win total of 55.5 at the LVH–its highest since 2007. Since 2000, the Spurs have finished with fewer than 56 wins just three times, but one of those was in last year’s condensed season.

San Antonio also returns the core of its team and has the type of depth to succeed in the regular season. The Spurs transformed into a dynamic offensive machine, ranking second in scoring (103.7) and point differential (+7.2) and first in field goal percentage (47.8) and 3-point shooting (39.3).

Will the Spurs once again exceed expectations, or is this year’s win total a bit inflated? Share your thoughts here.

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Additional Overachievers (win total record)

Atlanta Hawks (5-2)
Orlando Magic (5-2)
Memphis Grizzlies (5-2)
Dallas Mavericks (5-2)
Los Angeles Lakers (5-2)
Utah Jazz (5-2)

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