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PrintThe LVH’s SuperContest weekend began Friday night with seminars discussing college football, media coverage of the SuperContest and the NFL.
It’s a good bet that you’ll see videos from all three panel discussions appear on the LVH SuperBook’s official website soon enough, but for the time being, we figured we’d highlight one part of the NFL handicapping seminar.
The panelists included JT The Brick, Teddy Covers and Marc Lawrence. Below, the three handicappers break down some of their favorite win totals best bets. (We’ve also provided the best number in town for each of the various plays.)
For SuperContest updates, be sure to follow @JayKornegay and @LVSuperBook on Twitter.
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TEDDY COVERS
Miami Dolphins
“Let’s talk about those Dolphins, huh? Miami Under. I’ve got Under 7.5 in my pocket and I think 7 is the prevailing number now. I don’t know how they’re going to win six. The Dolphins, again, they’re changing the entire culture. They’re changing the coach, new coordinators on both sides of the ball, new systems on both sides of the ball, rookie quarterback, bad organization behind him. They jettisoned basically every defensive veteran they had. You’re going to see a lack of defensive leadership from Miami. I look for a long season.”
The pick: Under.
Best number: Cantor (7.5, -175).
Denver Broncos
“When the numbers first came out, The M was the first to the market, MGM was second, [LVH] was third, and so on. When The M came out, the biggest Day 1 mover was money coming in on Buffalo, on Chicago, and against Denver. My first thought process was, ‘Oh, the Broncos. Peyton Manning. What a weird place for him to end up. It doesn’t make any sense. They’re not any good. They were a 4-win team last year masquerading as an 8-win team. We saw what happened when they played a real opponent in the postseason. Denver stinks.’ But then … I started looking at the Broncos. Really looking at the personnel moves they made, really looking at the system John Fox has put in place, really looking at the defense that Jack Del Rio has put together, and really watching what Peyton Manning can do here. I’m bullish on the Broncos. Denver Over [currently 8.5 at some shops] is certainly a wager that’s attracted my attention.”
The pick: Over.
Best number: Stratosphere (8.5, -155).
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JT THE BRICK
Houston Texans
“I love the ‘over’ on Houston at 9.5. I think Houston this year is going to feast on that division, I think Houston is going to run the ball well, they’ve got their quarterback back. They lost their offensive coordinator but the quarterback is very familiar with what the scheme is going forward. They have a bit of a hole on the defensive line obviously losing (Mario) Williams, but I think their schedule sets up nicely. I think they’ll get off to a 5-1 or 6-2 start and that will get them there.”
The pick: Over.
Best number: LVH (9.5, -180).
Pittsburgh Steelers
“The Steelers have been just a glorious franchise, a great team that has been on such a run. But I think this is a team whose wheels are going to come off with an aging defense, I think Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger are not going to get along, I don’t think they’re going to be healthy at running back throughout the course of the year.”
The pick: Under.
Best number: MGM (10.5, -155).
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MARC LAWRENCE
San Francisco 49ers
“The San Francisco 49ers last year improved seven games under Jim Harbaugh. It was a terrific job and they did it the old fashioned way, running the football and playing defense. But they are one of only 10 teams in NFL history, since they expanded to a 16-game season, that improved seven games. The following year, every one of those teams that improved seven games or better declined, and by an average of almost five games each season. San Francisco was a huge benefactor. They had 28-plus net turnovers for the entire season. They’re going to be a targeted team this year. They obviously play in a soft division, but I still think there’s value in playing under on the 49ers.”
The pick: Under.
Best number: Caesars (10, -105).
Tampa Bay Bucs
“I like to look at these teams that really bottomed out the previous year with a win/loss total, and I think the Tampa Bay Bucs this year at (5.5 wins), there could be some value on the Bucs ‘over’ this particular football season. They’re bringing in a new coach with a new philosophy. A lot of players didn’t like Raheem Morris, the head coach. I think Josh Freeman is a tremendous talent in the National Football League and was beaten up a bit last year. Playing in a relatively soft division, if I were to go ‘over’ for value, I think I’d go over with Tampa.”
The pick: Over.
Best number: Wynn (5.5, -135)
