Post image for Is BCS as chaotic as we think? Initial standings can actually reveal a lot about future title game
College Football

Is BCS as chaotic as we think? Initial standings can actually reveal a lot about future title game

October 16, 2012

First off, yes, the BCS is a steaming pile of garbage and we all can’t wait for it to finally be kicked to the curb.

But the initial BCS standings, flawed as they may be, can actually be extremely useful in trying to narrow down possible championship game participants.

Below is a list of the current BCS standings, along with each team’s most up-to-date national championship futures odds, courtesy of Bovada:

1. Alabama +120
2. Florida +800
3. Oregon +350
4. Kansas State +1200
5. Notre Dame +1200
6. LSU +1200
7. South Carolina +1000
8. Oregon State +5000
9. Oklahoma +1600
10. USC +1000
11. Georgia +5000
12. Mississippi State +10000
13. West Virginia +7500
14. Florida State +2000
15. Rutgers (no odds)
16. Louisville +5000
17. Texas Tech (no odds)
18. Texas A&M (no odds)
19. Clemson +10000
20. Stanford (no odds)
21. Cincinnati +10000
22. Boise State (no odds)
23. TCU (no odds)
24. Iowa State (no odds)
25. Texas (no odds)

Now, here’s a list of useful facts from an excellent article on SundayMorningQB.com. Out of the 28 total title game participants since the first year of the BCS in 1998:

  • LSU in 2003 (No. 12 in the initial standings) is the only team outside the initial Top 10 to go on to the BCS Championship Game. So, that would eliminate any teams outside the Top 12. (Sorry, ACC.)
  • Only four teams outside of the initial Top 5 have gone on to make a title game appearance: Ohio State in 2002, LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and Florida again in 2008. That would then count out teams like South Carolina, Oklahoma and even LSU.
  • The initial No. 1 team has gone on to play for the title seven times, exactly 50 percent. So, that looks good for Alabama.
  • Half of the title game participants debuted at either No. 1 or No. 2 in the initial BCS standings. Florida, that’d be a great sign for you.

What does that leave us with? Well, these stats would say it’s fairly likely that either Alabama or Florida will be in the national championship, and their opponent (if it’s not each other) will be either Oregon, Kansas State or Notre Dame.

COULD THIS YEAR BE AN OUTLIER?

We’d argue yes.

Based on our adjusted projected point spreads and subsequent win odds, here is the percentage chance of each Top 5 team finishing the regular season unbeaten.

Alabama: 73%
Florida: 9%
Oregon: 27%
Kansas State: 4%
Notre Dame: 7%

Now, that doesn’t even include possible conference championship games for Alabama, Florida and Oregon, which would put an even bigger dent in those percentages.

All of these teams—save for (perhaps) Alabama—have a number of difficult matchups remaining, and there’s still a ton of shuffling to sort out. It’s more than likely that four of these five teams end up with at least one regular-season loss, which would leave the door open (more than in previous years) for one-loss teams to jump back into the picture.

Yes, even Florida State.

Related posts

Tags:      |      |      |      |