Let’s begin with the basic assumption that when a major corporation experiences a CEO change, the market price of the company’s stock is going to be less accurate and more volatile. That, in turn, creates uncertainty, which will create doubt in the minds of some and opportunity in the minds of others.
Now, let’s also assume that there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the new CEO’s leadership, strategic and managing abilities. It stands to reason that the more questions people have of the new CEO, the higher the likelihood of people doubting the direction and the future of the company. This could result, possibly, in the company’s stock being undervalued.
It works the same way in sports, and this is especially true when it comes to college football coaches.
Every year, at least 25 percent of college football players graduate. Every four years, 95 percent of them are gone. And at quarterback, the most important position on the field, the starter changes, on average, every two years.
A good coach? They never leave.
And the mediocre ones that get fired? They resurface elsewhere.
Coaching changes create uncertainty but they also create opportunity. There will be 28 coaches taking on new jobs in 2011. Your job is to identify the new coaches who will be undervalued (or overvalued) and bet accordingly.
Here are three coaches who should make an instant impact at their new schools:
1. Mike Leach, Washington State. Won at least eight games in each of his last eight seasons at Texas Tech, including an 11-2 mark in 2008, the year the Red Raiders started 10-0 and were ranked in the top 3. Takes over at a school that has won just nine games in the last four years and hasn’t made a bowl since 2003.
2. Urban Meyer, Ohio State. Well, this is the obvious one. Meyer is the master of the immediate turnaround and in three previous stints at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, he went a combined 27-8 in his first season. Overall record of the teams he inherited: 14-20.
3. Terry Bowden, Akron. Bowden has been a head coach at every level and was most recently the head coach at North Alabama, where he led the Division II squad to a 29-10 record. He hasn’t coached an FBS school since 1998. Akron returns eight starters on offense, including quarterback Clayton Moore. Can Bowden get the most out of the Zips and help them improve upon back-to-back 1-11 seasons?