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PrintEighty-three of Golden Nugget’s 111 point spreads (75 percent) are currently within three points of our projections, which we released last week—along with projected lines for 687 other games.
Of those 83 games, 39 of them—or 35 percent—are within one point. So, overall, our projections weren’t complete embarrassments, particularly when you consider the volume of games we tried to tackle.
Nonetheless, there were some major disagreements, and most of them involved South Carolina. We clearly overrated the Gamecocks, whose games were at least 2.5 points off on all six lines.
Our South Carolina lines differed from current numbers by an average of 5.75 points.
Another team that gave us trouble? USC. The Trojans had 11 lined games, and our projections were off by an average of 3.5 points, including a six-point discrepancy in their early-season clash against Syracuse. Our projections called for USC to be 27-point favorites, and the Nugget’s line is currently -21.
We think the line will be no fewer than 24 points by kickoff.
Below you’ll find a table listing our projections against Golden Nugget openers and current lines, which were last updated Monday evening.
* * *
| MATCHUP | BTB | OPEN | CURRENT | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St-Michigan St | Mich St -7 | Mich St -6.5 | Mich St -7.5 | 0.5 |
| Michigan-Alabama* | Alabama -13 | Alabama -12 | Alabama -10 | 3.0 |
| Notre Dame-Navy* | ND -13.5 | ND -13.5 | ND -13.5 | None |
| Marshall-West Virginia | WVU -21 | WVU -20 | WVU -20 | 1.0 |
| Clemson-Auburn* | Clemson -3 | Clemson -2.5 | Clemson -2.5 | 0.5 |
| Kentucky-Louisville | L'Ville -10 | L'Ville -11.5 | L'Ville -12.5 | 2.5 |
| Colorado-Colorado St* | Colorado -7 | Colorado -6 | Colorado -6 | 1.0 |
| Pittsburgh-Cincinnati | Cincy -4 | Cincy -5 | Cincy -3 | 1.0 |
| USC-Syracuse* | USC -27 | USC -21 | USC -21 | 6.0 |
| Washington-LSU | LSU -21 | LSU -21 | LSU -22.5 | 1.5 |
| Oklahoma St-Arizona | OSU -14 | OSU -9.5 | OSU -9.5 | 4.5 |
| Miami-Kansas St | KSU -9.5 | KSU -7 | KSU -8 | 1.5 |
| Iowa St-Iowa | Iowa -7.5 | Iowa -5 | Iowa -5 | 2.5 |
| Georgia-Missouri | Georgia -3 | Georgia -3 | Georgia -4 | 1.0 |
| Florida-Texas A&M | Florida -2.5 | A&M -1 | Florida -2.5 | None |
| Nebraska-UCLA | Neb -9 | Neb -6.5 | Neb -6.5 | 2.5 |
| Washington St-UNLV | Wazzu -20 | Wazzu -17.5 | Wazzu -17.5 | 2.5 |
| USC-Stanford | USC -6 | USC -10 | USC -9 | 3.0 |
| Alabama-Arkansas | Alabama -3.5 | Alabama -6.5 | Alabama -6.5 | 3.0 |
| Notre Dame-Michigan St | Mich St -4 | Mich St -3 | Mich St -4 | None |
| Florida-Tennessee | Pick 'em | Florida -5 | Florida -4 | 4.0 |
| Kansas St-Oklahoma | Oklahoma -14 | Oklahoma -16 | Oklahoma -16 | 2.0 |
| Michigan-Notre Dame | Mich -2.5 | ND -1 | ND -1 | 3.5 |
| LSU-Auburn | LSU -7.5 | LSU -10.5 | LSU -10.5 | 3.0 |
| Clemson-Florida St | FSU -9.5 | FSU -8 | FSU -9 | 0.5 |
| Missouri-South Carolina | SC -11 | SC -5 | SC -5 | 6.0 |
| California-USC | USC -20 | USC -24 | USC -24 | 4.0 |
| Ole Miss-Alabama | Alabama -30 | Alabama -31 | Alabama -31 | 1.0 |
| Texas-Oklahoma St | OSU -2.5 | OSU -3.5 | OSU -2 | 0.5 |
| Tennessee-Georgia | Georgia -12 | Georgia -13.5 | Georgia -12.5 | 0.5 |
| Ohio St-Michigan St | Mich St -1.5 | Mich St -4.5 | Mich St -2.5 | 1.0 |
| Wisconsin-Nebraska | Neb -4 | Neb -3 | Neb -3 | 1.0 |
| Arkansas-Texas A&M | Ark -2.5 | Ark -2.5 | Ark -3.5 | 1.0 |
| Baylor-West Virginia | WVU -14 | WVU -11 | WVU -11 | 3.0 |
| USC-Utah | USC -9.5 | USC -16 | USC -16 | 6.5 |
| Washington-Oregon | Oregon -17 | Oregon -20 | Oregon -20 | 3.0 |
| Miami at Notre Dame | ND -10 | ND -9.5 | ND -9.5 | 0.5 |
| West Virginia-Texas | Texas -4 | Texas -4.5 | Texas -6.5 | 2.5 |
| LSU-Florida | LSU -4 | LSU -7.5 | LSU -6.5 | 2.5 |
| Arkansas-Auburn | Auburn -1 | Ark -4.5 | Ark -4.5 | 5.5 |
| Kansas-Kansas St | KSU -24 | KSU -20 | KSU -20 | 4.0 |
| Nebraska-Ohio St | Ohio St -5 | Ohio St -2 | Ohio St -4 | 2.0 |
| Georgia-South Carolina | South Carolina -4 | Georgia -2.5 | Georgia -3 | 7.0 |
| Texas-Oklahoma* | Oklahoma -4 | Oklahoma -6 | Oklahoma -5 | 1.0 |
| USC-Washington | USC -10.5 | USC -17 | USC -17 | 6.5 |
| Alabama-Missouri | Alabama -13 | Alabama -14.5 | Alabama -13.5 | 0.5 |
| Stanford-Notre Dame | ND -3.5 | ND -5 | ND -5 | 1.5 |
| Nevada-UNLV | Nevada -14 | Nevada -17 | Nevada -17 | 3.0 |
| UNLV-Boise St | Boise St -36 | Boise St -35.5 | Boise State -35.5 | 0.5 |
| Colorado-USC | USC -31.5 | USC -36 | USC -36 | 4.5 |
| Alabama-Tennessee | Alabama -12.5 | Alabama -17 | Alabama -14.5 | 2.0 |
| BYU-Notre Dame | ND -5 | ND -10 | ND -7.5 | 2.5 |
| Baylor-Texas | Texas -14 | Texas -11 | Texas -12 | 2.0 |
| LSU-Texas A&M | LSU -11.5 | LSU -8 | LSU -8 | 3.5 |
| Stanford-California | Stanford -3 | Stanford -4 | Stanford -4 | 1.0 |
| South Carolina-Florida | Florida -2.5 | Florida -4 | Florida -5 | 2.5 |
| Florida St-Miami | FSU -10 | FSU -10 | FSU -10 | None |
| Michigan St-Michigan | Mich -6.5 | Mich -6 | Mich -6 | 0.5 |
| Kansas St-West Virginia | WVU -7 | WVU -7.5 | WVU -6.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati-Louisville | L'Ville -10 | L'Ville -3.5 | L'Ville -3.5 | 6.5 |
| USC-Arizona | USC -21 | USC -14 | USC -15.5 | 5.5 |
| Mississippi St-Alabama | Alabama -18 | Alabama -24 | Alabama -24 | 6.0 |
| Notre Dame-Oklahoma | Oklahoma -10 | Oklahoma -12 | Oklahoma -12 | 2.0 |
| Texas A&M-Auburn | Auburn -9 | Auburn -3 | Auburn -3 | 6.0 |
| Michigan-Nebraska | Nebraska -3.5 | Mich -2 | Mich -1 | 4.5 |
| TCU-Oklahoma St | OSU -4 | OSU -9 | -9 | 5.0 |
| Ohio St-Penn St | Ohio St -6 | Ohio St -3 | Ohio St -5.5 | 0.5 |
| Tennessee-South Carolina | SC -13 | SC -7.5 | SC -6.5 | 6.5 |
| Michigan St-Wisconsin | Wisc -7 | Wisc -5 | Wisc -5 | 2.0 |
| Florida-Georgia* | Georgia -2 | Georgia -4.5 | Georgia -3.5 | 1.5 |
| Virginia Tech-Miami | Va Tech -4 | Va Tech -6.5 | Va Tech -6.5 | 2.5 |
| Alabama-LSU | LSU -3 | LSU -2 | LSU -2 | 1.0 |
| Oregon-USC | USC -6 | USC -6 | USC -6 | None |
| Pittsburgh-Notre Dame | ND -11.5 | ND -13 | ND -13 | 1.5 |
| Missouri-Florida | Florida -9.5 | Florida -5.5 | Florida -6.5 | 3.0 |
| Oklahoma St-Kansas St | OSU -1 | KSU -1 | OSU -1 | None |
| Nebraska-Michigan St | Mich -2.5 | Mich St -5 | Mich St -5 | 2.5 |
| TCU-West Virginia | WVU -5 | WVU -7 | WVU -6 | 1.0 |
| Florida St-Virginia Tech | FSU -1 | Va Tech -1 | FSU -2 | 1.0 |
| Arizona St-USC | USC -28.5 | USC -27 | USC -27 | 1.5 |
| Texas A&M-Alabama | Alabama -21 | Alabama -20 | Alabama -20 | 1.0 |
| Baylor-Oklahoma | Oklahoma -18.5 | Oklahoma -17 | Oklahoma -17 | 1.5 |
| Notre Dame-Boston College | ND -8 | ND -12 | ND -11 | 3.0 |
| Mississippi St-LSU | LSU -20 | LSU -17 | LSU -17 | 3.0 |
| Georgia-Auburn | Georgia -1.5 | Georgia -6 | Georgia -5 | 3.5 |
| West Virginia-Oklahoma St | OSU -3 | OSU -6.5 | OSU -5.5 | 2.5 |
| Arkansas-South Carolina | SC -5 | Arkansas -3 | Arkansas -2 | 7.0 |
| Kansas St-TCU | TCU -6 | TCU -3.5 | TCU -3.5 | 2.5 |
| Missouri-Tennessee | Tenn -6 | Tenn -1 | Tenn -1 | 5.0 |
| Pittsburgh-Connecticut | Pitt -1 | Pitt -2.5 | Pitt -2.5 | 1.5 |
| USC-UCLA | USC -17 | USC -16 | USC -16 | 1.0 |
| Stanford-Oregon | Oregon -11.5 | Oregon -13.5 | Oregon -13.5 | 2.0 |
| Oklahoma-West Virginia | Oklahoma -2.5 | Oklahoma -4 | Oklahoma -3 | 0.5 |
| Ole Miss-LSU | LSU -31 | LSU -26 | LSU -27.5 | 3.5 |
| Ohio St-Wisconsin | Wisc -4 | Wisc -7 | Wisc -6 | 2.0 |
| LSU-Arkansas | LSU -3.5 | LSU -3 | LSU -4 | 0.5 |
| Arizona St-Arizona | Arizona -4 | Arizona -5.5 | Arizona -5.5 | 1.5 |
| Washington-Washington St | Wash -3 | Wazzu -3 | Wazzu -2 | 5.0 |
| Notre Dame-USC | USC -14.5 | USC -14 | USC -14 | 0.5 |
| Auburn-Alabama | Alabama -16.5 | Alabama -18 | Alabama -18 | 1.5 |
| Oregon-Oregon St | Oregon -14.5 | Oregon -16 | Oregon -16 | 1.5 |
| Oklahoma St-Oklahoma | Oklahoma -9 | Oklahoma -8 | Oklahoma -8 | 1.0 |
| TCU-Texas | Texas -6 | Texas -7.5 | Texas -7.5 | 1.5 |
| South Carolina-Clemson | SC -2.5 | Clemson -4 | Clemson -3 | 5.5 |
| Florida-Florida St | FSU -7.5 | Fla St -7.5 | Fla St -6.5 | 1.0 |
| Mississippi St-Ole Miss | Miss St -7.5 | Miss St -10 | Miss St -10 | 2.5 |
| Michigan-Ohio St | Ohio St -4 | Mich -3 | Mich pk | 4.0 |
| Missouri-Texas A&M | A&M -2.5 | A&M -3 | A&M -3 | 0.5 |
| Oklahoma-TCU | Oklahoma -3.5 | Oklahoma -10 | Oklahoma -8 | 4.5 |
| Texas-Kansas St | Texas -1.5 | Texas -3 | Texas -4 | 2.5 |
| Army-Navy* | Navy -3.5 | Navy -4.5 | Navy -3.5 | None |
