Your reputation is at stake: Daily Best Bet thread

[@oconnellp]

(09-21-2011 05:04 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-21-2011 04:54 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  oconnellp 10-11

I've been so awful at football so far this year I'm lucky as f*** to be even near .500

[Doustism]

I am new to the Daily Best Bet:

Pick for 9/22: NC State +7.5

[Beyond the Bets]

You can start by making your "best bet" on the day of the game! Just messing.

Good luck tomorrow. Also, don't be a stranger.

[vegasobie]

busy day of work tomorrow, so here is my best bet for Thursday night. Cincinnati is laying 7 points as they host North Carolina State. The Bearcats have looked very good against two awful teams and they looked bad against a good Tennessee team. This game is also a revenge game for UC after losing at NCSU on a Thursday night last season. The Wolfpack have not been very good this year, currently 0-3 ATS and a SU loss vs. the only FBS team they have played this year. Everything is pointing toward the Bearcats in this game, but I like NCSU. My main reason for this pick is head coaching. I see Tom O'Brien having a huge edge over Butch Jones and that should be amplified in a short week. Another note on O'Brien is where this game is. He has always recruited well in Cincinnati, even going back to his B.C. days, so looking good on Thursday will be important to him. It looks like all the money is coming in on UC so if you agree with my choice, waiting may be beneficial as you may actually get 7.5. GOOD LUCK

THE PLAY: North Carolina State +7

[ChiefZilla]

(09-21-2011 10:01 PM)vegasobie Wrote:  I see Tom O'Brien having a huge edge over Butch Jones and that should be amplified in a short week.

Quick question on this ... I've always only really thought of the coaching advantage to be magnified when there's ample time to prepare for an opponent. Like, most tacticians if you give them enough time will find a way to outperform expectations (aka cover the spread) even if they might be overmatched. But you see O'Brien having an advantage in a SHORT week. I'm not saying I disagree with you — just that I've never really thought of it like that.

What does everyone think? Are there good coaches on short weeks and good coaches who need more time?

[thekidrounder]

Heres the GASCAN alert!! Hou OVER 9, col's white 9.19 era last 3 as well as last 3 going over the total. Hou's sosa 5.54 era avg 4.2 innings per start so you can expect to see that stellar bullpen for the stros in early as well. Tutos is back for col also so that should help. This one sails over grab it b4 it pops to 9.5

---

wheres my rep point? again.... lol (should be 3 right now)

[vegasobie]

(09-21-2011 10:58 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(09-21-2011 10:01 PM)vegasobie Wrote:  I see Tom O'Brien having a huge edge over Butch Jones and that should be amplified in a short week.

Quick question on this ... I've always only really thought of the coaching advantage to be magnified when there's ample time to prepare for an opponent. Like, most tacticians if you give them enough time will find a way to outperform expectations (aka cover the spread) even if they might be overmatched. But you see O'Brien having an advantage in a SHORT week. I'm not saying I disagree with you — just that I've never really thought of it like that.

What does everyone think? Are there good coaches on short weeks and good coaches who need more time?

my thinking is that in a short week, both coaches have less time to review film, and the better coach will be able to manage his time better and get the relevant information communicated to his team more effectively. any disruption in normal routine i think gets handled better by the better coach as well. also, with not as much time to work with the players, more in game adjustments will probably need to be made, again an edge to the better coach. but i understand your point and agree with it. i guess in my mind if you're the better coach, you'll be the better coach in every situation. this just gets more obvious in outside the normal week situations, both short and long weeks

[jimmysingh9]

ill jump into the fray here.


Cincy -7 -120.

will pay 15 cents to get the line at -7


like the bearcats here tonight. couple of factors. revenge factor from last year is one of them. primetime home game is another added to the fact that the home team is the better team. NC State's injuries will make their D very ordinary(it wasnt anything special anyway) adding in new pieces against this type of offense will create mistakes from the defense leaving holes and open recievers. Like the Bearcats to win this by double digits but will take the -7 with a little juice for safety

[ChiefZilla]

(09-22-2011 12:07 AM)vegasobie Wrote:  my thinking is that in a short week, both coaches have less time to review film, and the better coach will be able to manage his time better and get the relevant information communicated to his team more effectively. any disruption in normal routine i think gets handled better by the better coach as well. also, with not as much time to work with the players, more in game adjustments will probably need to be made, again an edge to the better coach. but i understand your point and agree with it. i guess in my mind if you're the better coach, you'll be the better coach in every situation. this just gets more obvious in outside the normal week situations, both short and long weeks

Yeah, that makes sense. Better coach will prevail in abnormal situations. I like it.

[itg_sports]

I have decided that whatever I am inclined to post on the "best bet" thread should be faded. I have had much better results on twitter and other areas of the forum. I am making 2 plays tonight and I almost feel like posting them on here is the kiss of death.

Rangers & As Over 8.5 & Over 60.5 in the CFB game.

I will go ahead and go with the CFB pick for my Best Bet. If I lose this one I will accept my negative rep and retire from this thread.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-22-2011 12:20 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Yeah, that makes sense. Better coach will prevail in abnormal situations. I like it.

I prefer the team that doesn't travel. Except in clear mismatch cases like last week's LSU-MSU game.

Also, the better coach thing needs to be looked at on a case-by-case basis based on what offense the opposition is running. I think it's hard to get your injury-filled defense prepped for a hurry-up spread team with three days of practice and then travel.

You can bet Cincy's game plan is to push the tempo. They averaged 69.75 plays per game last year. I'd expect them to aim for 80 tonight.

---

Something else to keep in mind. Butch Jones was at Cent Michigan and they play plenty of weeknight games in the MAC. Only one or two of them are played in short weeks (some play Thurs and then the next Fri, etc), but he's no stranger to these situations.

[Beyond the Bets]

I think you make a good point, ST, re: Butch Jones' weeknight games in the MAC. Of course, Tom O'Brien has played in plenty of these games himself having been in the ACC all these years.

This is a tough game. But I just can't bring myself to bet Cincinnati. I'll be watching the Atlanta Dream instead.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-22-2011 02:30 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I think you make a good point, ST, re: Butch Jones' weeknight games in the MAC. Of course, Tom O'Brien has played in plenty of these games himself having been in the ACC all these years.

He has. 2-0 ATS last year, 3-2 ATS total. Just one of those five on the road, though. A 34-0 loss.

[kreatture]

Thursday, Sept. 22nd

Cincinnati Bearcats -0.5 (-106) 1ST QUARTER

I'm personally betting 1.5 to win 1.415 here.

[oddsok]

(09-21-2011 11:25 PM)thekidrounder Wrote:  Heres the GASCAN alert!! Hou OVER 9, col's white 9.19 era last 3 as well as last 3 going over the total. Hou's sosa 5.54 era avg 4.2 innings per start so you can expect to see that stellar bullpen for the stros in early as well. Tutos is back for col also so that should help. This one sails over grab it b4 it pops to 9.5

---

wheres my rep point? again.... lol (should be 3 right now)

Nice one. Just covered.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-22-2011 02:13 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  You can bet Cincy's game plan is to push the tempo. They averaged 69.75 plays per game last year. I'd expect them to aim for 80 tonight.

---

76 plays so far for Cincy. Should get the ball back at least two more times.

Or just one more, but hey, 79 plays.

[Beyond the Bets]

All rep points have been updated.

[Doustism]

And after the swift butt kicking Cincy gave to my reputation, let's try this for today: UCF/BYU Under 44.5

[Beyond the Bets]

Good luck, Doutism. You'll be back in the Green in no time.

[thekidrounder]

(09-22-2011 10:04 PM)oddsok Wrote:  

(09-21-2011 11:25 PM)thekidrounder Wrote:  Heres the GASCAN alert!! Hou OVER 9, col's white 9.19 era last 3 as well as last 3 going over the total. Hou's sosa 5.54 era avg 4.2 innings per start so you can expect to see that stellar bullpen for the stros in early as well. Tutos is back for col also so that should help. This one sails over grab it b4 it pops to 9.5

---

wheres my rep point? again.... lol (should be 3 right now)

Nice one. Just covered.

ty, im assuming u mean just by the time u posted