Your reputation is at stake: Daily Best Bet thread

[TheBrick]

Today's Best Bet
Patriots-Dolphins UNDER 47

[NYSKIV]

Raiders-Broncos OVER 41.5

[Beyond the Bets]

Best bet: Dolphins +7.5.

[@oconnellp]

Yankees ML +111

[kreatture]

Oakland Raiders ML (+160)

No need for the points in this one.. run up the middle and down their throat straight up moneyline.

[trilla_4585]

Phillies vs Astros
Total- 7.5

Phillies Background-
- Philadelphia's magic number to clinch a postseason berth is one, which means a victory on Tuesday against the Astros or a loss by St. Louis in Pittsburgh will propel the Phillies back into the postseason

Astros Background-
- In Monday's series opener, the Astros topped the Phillies, 5-1
- On mound: J.A. Happ- ex-Phillies player

Phillies hitting vs. Astros pitching -
- Pitching-
o Happ recently spent time in the Minor Leagues
o Happ looking for consistency
- In his first game back at Houston since he was traded to Philadelphia, Hunter Pence went 2-for-4 on Monday

Astros hitting vs. Phillies pitching –
- Pitching-
o Hammels missed a couple of starts last month because of inflammation in his left shoulder
- Carlos Lee went 2-for-3 on Monday and has hit safely in 20 of his last 21 games. He's hitting .395 with five home runs and 14 RBIs during that span
- Lee has 83 RBIs this season
- Since his big league debut on July 30, J.D. Martinez has 29 RBIs in 39 games. He went 3-for-4 on Monday
- Matt Downs is hitting .359 as a pinch-hitter this season with 12 pinch-hit RBIs and three pinch-hit home runs

3 Key Trends-
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games as a road favorite of -201 or greater
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games following a win.

Expectation-
- Shaky pitching and Philadelphia should be motivated to clinch the postseason spot.

Pick- over 7.5

Record- 0-0

[Beyond the Bets]

Everybody's rep has been updated through Saturday, Sunday and Monday games.

[vegasobie]

for those that do pay attention to the reputation points when evaluating someones picks, I'm at 2 but am 2-0 w/ expert picks and 2-0 on daily best bet picks. also went 10-6 in NFL contest this weekend so it may be time to fade me...just saying.

[@oconnellp]

Red Sox (-1.5) +135

Another Morrow vs Wake matchup. This time Boston bullpen doesnt crap the bed. Putting 3 rep points @ stake to get back over .500.

[trilla_4585]

Wed, 09/14/11

Blue Jays vs Red Sox
Total: 10.5

Blue Jays Background-
- Blue Jays were officially eliminated from the playoffs following Tuesday's loss
- Can play the spoiler role in the division

Red Sox Background-
- Last night: increased its AL Wild Card lead to four games over the Rays
- Last night: off large W: 18-6 victory over the Blue Jays on Tuesday
- Red Sox lineup can erupt

Blue Jays hitting vs. Red Sox pitching -
- Pitching-
o Struggling John Lackey (12-12, 6.30 ERA)
o Lackey dropped three consecutive starts and four of his last five
o Lackey’s ERA in last 3: 9.00; higher than overall ERA of 6.30
- Blue Jays rookies have combined to hit a Major League-leading 43 home runs -- the second-highest total in club history (48, 2002)
- With one more home run by Brett Lawrie, Toronto would have three rookies hit 10 or more home runs for the first time in franchise history

Red Sox hitting vs. Blue Jays pitching –
- Pitching-
o Ricky Romero earned his 14th victory of the season last Thursday
o Romero’s ERA in last 3: 5.12; higher than overall ERA of 3.01
- Dustin Pedroia surpassed the 20-20 plateau for the season
- Jacoby Ellsbury is already a 20-20 producers

3 Key Trends-
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Blue Jays last 9 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Expectation-
- Bats stay hot from last night
- Blue Jays want to play spoilers vs. a top team in their division

Pick: over 10.5

Record: 0-1
Units: -1.1





...also, go to my blog (http://trilla4585.blogspot.com/) to see my picks on the following games:
- Min @ KC (mlb)
- NYY @ Sea (mlb)
- NYM @ Was (mlb)
- NY @ Ind (wnba playoffs- r1,g1)

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-10-2011 05:03 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(09-10-2011 04:37 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-09-2011 09:35 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Just passing the time until the big Utah game tomorrow.

Mizzou +10. I'll put two rep points at stake.

I take it I have to award myself 2 rep points? Nobody else will do it?

At least someone gave them to you. I was the biggest backer and no one gave me any rep points.

I'm going with Houston -20.5 over North Texas today as my best bet. I know the value is gone from the line but I think the Cougars roll. We'll see.

(09-13-2011 12:27 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  Red Sox (-1.5) +135

Another Morrow vs Wake matchup. This time Boston bullpen doesnt crap the bed. Putting 3 rep points @ stake to get back over .500.

Gotta be 1 or 2. I gave you 2. Only allowed to give 1 or 2 or take away 1 or 2.

[@oconnellp]

(09-14-2011 07:18 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-10-2011 05:03 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(09-10-2011 04:37 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-09-2011 09:35 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Just passing the time until the big Utah game tomorrow.

Mizzou +10. I'll put two rep points at stake.

I take it I have to award myself 2 rep points? Nobody else will do it?

At least someone gave them to you. I was the biggest backer and no one gave me any rep points.

I'm going with Houston -20.5 over North Texas today as my best bet. I know the value is gone from the line but I think the Cougars roll. We'll see.

(09-13-2011 12:27 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  Red Sox (-1.5) +135

Another Morrow vs Wake matchup. This time Boston bullpen doesnt crap the bed. Putting 3 rep points @ stake to get back over .500.

Gotta be 1 or 2. I gave you 2. Only allowed to give 1 or 2 or take away 1 or 2.

cool. Are the rep points equal to 1 rep point per bet? If i was at -2 before the +2 shouldnt i be even? Am I gonna have to start a thread called "F*cked by Beyond the Bets???.....haha (joking The Brick). Not a big deal just sick of having a negative rep next to my name.

[Beyond the Bets]

You were -3. I changed you to -1. If you want to get rid of the negative rep, you can either pick more winners or pay me $100.

Let me know what you decide.

[@oconnellp]

(09-14-2011 12:49 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  You were -3. I changed you to -1. If you want to get rid of the negative rep, you can either pick more winners or pay me $100.

Let me know what you decide.

hmmm guess i'll just have to win the CFB contest this weekend.

[trilla_4585]

Thurs, 09/15/11

(3)LSU @ (25)Mississippi State
Line: +3

3 Key Facts -
- Mississippi State Coming off sour loss at Auburn
- Mississippi State ranked sixth in the FBS with 321.0 rushing yards per game
- Mississippi State couldn't make a final play the last time LSU was in town. LSU stopped Mississippi State three times inside the 3-yard line in the final minutes

3 Key Trends-
- Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite
- Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Expectation-
- Home dog on a Thursday night.
- Mississippi State will win S.U.

Pick: MissSt +3
Amount: 1 unit

Record: 2-4
Units: -3.05


...also, go to my blog (http://trilla4585.blogspot.com/) to see my picks on the following games:
- NY @ Ind (wnba playoffs- r1,g1)
- Phx @ Sea (wnba playoffs- r1, g1)
- Fla @ Phila (mlb)
- N Tex @ (2)Bama (ncaaf)
- ULM @ (23) TCU (ncaaf)

[RyanParrill]

I'll throw it up here....Oregon/Mizzouri State over 71.

[thekidrounder]

Rep bet #2 MLB tex over 9.5 get it now b4 it hits 10. Ogando ERA last 3 starts 9.25 and FATso carmona era 9.24 last 3. Tex scores in bunches when they do and they have to stay on pace with the hot angles so theyll be showing no mercy tnight on the flip side CLE got embarrased yesterday but get a righty today which they are avgeraging a respectable 5.4 runs against with tex avgeraging 6.1 at home against righties, this one sails over by the 6th gl!

[SkyBlues42]

(09-15-2011 08:40 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  I'll throw it up here....Oregon/Mizzouri State over 71.

I'm pretty sure Phil Steele set the line in this game..

"UO is 32-2 in gms vs non-conf opp's in Eugene incl LY going 2-0 w/a combined 141-0 score!"

personally.. I love his use of '!'

[@oconnellp]

The LSU/MISS ST game is a total stay away 4 me, but will risk a rep point on the UNDER of 50.5.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-15-2011 12:31 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  The LSU/MISS ST game is a total stay away 4 me, but will risk a rep point on the UNDER of 50.5.

Yep, just got it at 51 (-115). I'm on board with it. I think last week against Auburn was an outlier performance for the Miss St D. They're not as bad as they played. Their offense also won't be near as proficient against LSU's D.