Your favorite NFL Total (now for conference championships)

[Whiskeytown]

strange week, as the final week always is.... we get so caught up with sides and motivation and playoff seeding, we forget to look for value and strong plays on Over/Unders.

so let's all throw out our favorite Totals of the week.....

true to form, i'll go ahead and jump on what looks like a Joe Square Public play:

Patriots/Bills OVER 50.

same old song and dance.. the Pats can score in bunches and their defense is weak. Belichick/Brady like to keep throwing/scoring, and they need to win this game to secure the #1 seed. The Bills, when hot like they were earlier in the year (and again last week), can put up plenty of points too.... yes, i know these are the very obvious points and they are already factored into the Total.

but the interesting thing is that both of these teams have been playing out this storyline every week: they can score, and give up points, so they face high totals from Vegas (often inflated since the public loves overs). and yet both of these teams have seen 10 of their games go Over this season!

when looking at some trends, the Over is 6-1-1 in BUF last 8 road games and the Over is 11-1 in NE last 12 vs. AFC East. but the most remarkable one is that over the last almost-2 seasons, their recent Defenseless Era, when the Pats games routinely had high/inflated totals... the Over is STILL 20-6 in NE last 26 games overall!

i dont see how NE doesn't easily score at least 35 in this game. The Bills should be good for around 21 (probably more) and this one sails over the total. 34-17 would get it done, but i think it ends up more like 38-24.

so what's your favorite NFL Total play this week?

[JSpauny]

Stl/SF Under 35.5

Plain and simple, the Rams have one of the worst offenses in the forward pass era and the 49ers have a pretty solid defense. In the last meeting the Rams were held to 150 total yards and didn't move the ball inside the 49ers 37 yard line. Complete offensive futility. The 49ers dline was able to dominate the Rams oline killing drives regularly. Its the same dline vs the same oline, hard to expect a different result.

The Rams haven't scored more than 13 points since Week 12 and the 49ers haven't scored more than 20 since Week 13 when the teams last played which was a 26-0 shutout.

The Rams defense is much better than many people give them credit for. They usually hold on for 3 quarters before they collapse due to being on the field way too long. In the last meeting the 49ers ran 14 more plays and held the ball 13 more minutes than the Rams. I'm guessing a similar scenario will play out in this game with the Rams D keeping the team in the game for about 3 quarters before giving up a gimme TD to put the game away (even though its really over as soon as the opposition gets over 10).

The 49ers ran the ball 34 times in the last meeting to pretty good success outside of Gore (who the Rams focused on stopping). Their 2 TDs both came on 50+ yard receptions where Crabtree and Williams literally ran past the defense. I would like to think that they will somehow be able to prevent that in this game.

I see this being a very low scoring game, with a heavy emphasis on the running game for both teams. Whoever scores more than 10 (and it won't be the Rams) wins. I can see the 49ers getting into the 20s but I highly doubt they'll get into the 30s. I can't see the Rams getting more than 3 so I think the 35 is pretty safe. I'm predicting 22-3 49ers.

[Edit] Just another stat I want to mention. The 49ers have only scored over 30 twice this year: the opening week to Seattle and then week 5 against Tampa Bay. Their high score on the road is 25 points and they only average 17.9 PPG on the road this season. The Rams average 14.4 PPG at home this season and throwing out the fluke against NO it drops to 11.7 PPG. I think the only way this game goes over is if SF scores in the 30s which seems unlikely.

[SkyBlues42]

Falcons/Bucs 46

I think the total is a little high in this game. I think the game will be much closer than anticipated and will end up around 24-17. I know it's not correlated, but I think in order for the Falcons to cover the spread, the game will have to go over the total.

[Whiskeytown]

great call on the SF/St.L Under, i like that one a lot too....

[caseyd]

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/?p=2931

RE: home dogs late in the season

[JSpauny]

(12-30-2011 06:29 PM)caseyd Wrote:  http://sportsinsights.com/blog/?p=2931

RE: home dogs late in the season

Interesting info caseyd. I can see their point and it makes perfect sense. However, the Rams aren't your everyday NFL team. They are historically offensively challenged, like potential for lowest scoring Rams team since the forward pass offensively challenged, like have only scored 40 more points all year than the two teams last night in the Alamo bowl offensively challenged.

[The Posse]

I'm on the Ravens/Bengals u39. The Ravens have struggled to put up points the last several weeks and have really had issues scoring points on the road throughout most of the season. Although the latest reports indicate a miniscule chance that Anquan Boldin could play, I don't buy it.

[TheSportsMarket]

Lots of wind / snow expected across the Midwest late tomorrow. If you're thinking under in GB, CLE or CIN I'd grab it today as its likely to adjust tomorrow.

[The Posse]

(12-31-2011 10:39 AM)TheSportsMarket Wrote:  Lots of wind / snow expected across the Midwest late tomorrow. If you're thinking under in GB, CLE or CIN I'd grab it today as its likely to adjust tomorrow.

Glad I got BAL/CIN. The other two totals fell like a rock today.

[victortrash]

I like NO/CAR 1st half over 28. Thats 4tds, and I expect NO to come out shooting with both guns blazing. They're at home, and not going to be watching the SF game outcome until after halftime when I believe they will rest starters if it doesn't look like they'll pass SF. Cam should be good enough to be able to put together a drive near the end of the second half to put up 7 to put the score at around 21-10 NO halftime.

[Whiskeytown]

reviving this for the divisional round.

at first i thought Balt/Hou Under was my favorite... now i'm feeling the over in that one.

GB/NYG should go over, but it's the highest number, probably a very square/public play, and certainly an inflated total. but i still like it.

i'm back/forth on SF/NO 47.

i like NE/Den over. just like i did when they played in the regular season (i think that week it was around 46 and this week it's around 50.5).

so i dont LOVE any of them.... might work one or two of them into a tease....

just thought i'd see how people saw the totals for this round of the playoffs....

[SkyBlues42]

SF/NO under 47 seems like a solid play. Saints on the road are a different team and the 49ers should be able to control the pace, or at least slow it down.

They'll pound the run, work the clock. I'd be surprised if the Saints scored 30+, which is what they'd have to do to go over that total, IMO.

[bms]

I like the Bal/Hou over 35.5

Both teams are gearing up to stop the run, we might some more passing TD's. Boldin will be 100%.

[Whiskeytown]

yea, seems Ray Rice is good for at least one breakaway 60-yd TD run per game. TJ Yates might give up a pick-6 or strip/sack TD. Texans might have enough success running that they can muster a good 10 points or so minimum. maybe they get a turnover for a free 3pts. and as bms just mentioned, so much focus on the running game, Boldin or that fast rookie, or Andre Johnson, is bound to hit one deep. and the Ravens are the kings of getting a PI call on deep passes down the field....
24-14, 20-17, doesn't seem outta the question.

teasing Balt/Over might be another way to go.

[bms]

3 places have moved the Bal/Hou total back to the 36 this afternoon.

[The Posse]

My two cents: I'd pick NO/SF under. But I'd rather wait to see if the public can drive it up to 48+. In general, I'm not a fan of this round's lines and will be mostly avoiding them or live-betting.

[Whiskeytown]

this relates to other threads about "what's square" etc...

but i hate when i like an Over. especially an "obvious" over with no value (GB/NYG this week).
i already mentioned that game... but the more i think i about i just dont see how it stays under.

[ChiefZilla]

(01-12-2012 07:41 AM)Whiskeytown Wrote:  this relates to other threads about "what's square" etc...

but i hate when i like an Over. especially an "obvious" over with no value (GB/NYG this week).
i already mentioned that game... but the more i think i about i just dont see how it stays under.

The only way it stays under is if that Giants pass rush truly has "arrived." Because it's been well-documented that that's really the only way to slow down these passing offenses -- get pressure on the QB with your front four.

Otherwise, Rodgers will torch them for about 35 points (Packers' season average in points), making it very difficult for that game to stay under.

Also: FWIW, in their matchup in Week 12 the Giants got only two sacks, but that was before all of their pass rushers were fully healthy. Green Bay DID rank near the bottom of the league (23rd) by allowing 2.6 sacks per game.

[Whiskeytown]

(01-12-2012 12:55 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(01-12-2012 07:41 AM)Whiskeytown Wrote:  this relates to other threads about "what's square" etc...

but i hate when i like an Over. especially an "obvious" over with no value (GB/NYG this week).
i already mentioned that game... but the more i think i about i just dont see how it stays under.

The only way it stays under is if that Giants pass rush truly has "arrived." Because it's been well-documented that that's really the only way to slow down these passing offenses -- get pressure on the QB with your front four.

Otherwise, Rodgers will torch them for about 35 points (Packers' season average in points), making it very difficult for that game to stay under.

Also: FWIW, in their matchup in Week 12 the Giants got only two sacks, but that was before all of their pass rushers were fully healthy. Green Bay DID rank near the bottom of the league (23rd) by allowing 2.6 sacks per game.

yea, they can get pressure with just 4. and they will in this game. but even with the luxury of dropping 7 into coverage.... can THESE 7 LB's/DB's stop the Packers attack? can we name any of their linebackers?

i remember there were some injury concerns a few weeks ago along the GB o-line, not sure if that's still a major concern.

and Eli and that gang on offense should be able to get their as well.

again, hate to fall in love with the obvious pick, it's not like Vegas doesn't know all the things i just layed out and set the line accordingly....

[SkyBlues42]

Blackburn, Michael Boley and Kiwanuka