Would you pay for analysis?

[Beyond the Bets]

So, imagine this: I've been thinking about the tout industry quite a bit lately. You might have read in another thread that Pregame is planning to make all of its picks transparent. Not the last 10 picks. Not the last 100 picks. All of them. Since the beginning of time. It's a great move and it's absolutely a step in the right direction, and I applaud the decision.

Here's the bad part: The full transparency that will be provided is going to reveal, and quite definitively in some cases, that many Pregame handicappers are not any good. Not only are some Pregame touts not winners, but they're basically coin flippers; just hoping to get lucky while they wait on the next random streak to promote.

There are many Pregame Pros, I'm sure, who were once good; who have a body of knowledge; who used to kill it in the 1980s or 1990s but have been unable to sustain that success in the present day in a market that's much more competitive and efficient. There are three main reasons why many of these touts continue to sell plays:

1. Denial. Like a professional athlete who reaches his mid-to-late 30s but clearly can't play, it's hard to admit when you've lost "it," the ability to beat a game that you used to be one of the best at.
2. They aren't betting. Many touts - and yes, there are even some at Pregame - aren't betting the games they release. I know that for a fact. Consequently, a losing bettor is thus shielded from his own shortcomings, at least in part.
3. Monetary benefit. Come on. It's easy money.

There's an old saying that "Those who can't play, coach." And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Plenty of former golfers lost their ability and are now teachers. Lots of former players are now wearing headsets. Many more become analysts. They teach the game to viewers or listeners who aren't as educated and haven't lived it like they have.

The question I have, then, is this: Should pick sellers who stink become "educators" or "analysts" or "advisers"? I know that sounds absurd, but work with me here. Instead of selling daily plays at Pregame, they might sell access to their mind and to their process while also sharing their experience.

If the purpose of Pregame is to provide value to bettors, I would argue that the REAL value you can provide is information. Teach people how to arrive at the "correct answer" (at least theoretically), that way they'll be able to (maybe) do it on their own.

Buying daily, weekly, monthly and yearly picks from a losing handicapper is not a long-term solution. Besides, when the capper quits or leaves, who do you turn to then?

Read the write-up below. It's a write-up that Right Angle Sports put out four years ago prior to the Minnesota-Miami (Ohio) game.

To me, this is more valuable than a pick:

Miami Ohio at Minnesota (Under 50)

First year head coach Tim Brewster is attempting to transform the Gopher offense from a ground oriented attack into a combination spread/west coast style offense. After getting shutout in the first half of the season opener vs Bowling Green, Brewster changed his strategy and kept the ball on the ground 34 of 45 plays after halftime saying afterwards "We're going to be a physical, running football team." Only 48 points were scored in regulation despite facing a defensively challenged Bowling Green team that likes to line up with five wideouts and throw the ball around. That type of attack was a bad matchup for Minnesota's suspect secondary, but this week Minnesota's strong front seven will be on display against a team who's offensive strength is running the football, not passing it. Gopher starting QB Adam Weber, a redshirt freshman, finished just 15 of 31 with 2 interceptions in an unimpressive debut and at one point in the first half was close to getting replaced. Earlier this week, head coach Brewster announced some reshuffling on an unsettled offensive line which may further hinder the offense's progress.

Miami Ohio scored a touchdown with 17 seconds left to beat Ball State 14-13 in a low scoring affair last week. Redhawk starting QB Mike Kokal completed 14 of 24 passes for just 118 yards and threw 2 interceptions. Kokal seldom threw downfield in the game with his longest pass going to RB Brandon Murphy for 17 yards. This versus a Ball State team not known for strong defense. The return of a healthy Murphy was the bright spot for Miami, as he rushed for 135 yards as the focal point of the offense. The Redhawks will also be shuffling their offensive line this week, as starting guard Matt McKeown left last game with injury and is listed as doubtful. Miami fans are high on their defense this year and they had a solid outing in their debut holding Ball State to just 13 points despite several three and outs by the offense and a -2 turnover ratio. They figure to do a much better job defending the Gophers ground game than smallish Bowling Green did last week. Expect this game to have a difficult time getting out of the 40's. Play the under.

Final score:



Now, RAS got absolutely jobbed, obviously. But regardless of whether the game wins or loses, is there not value in receiving this type of write-up? This is tremendous, detailed, informed analysis. You are allowed to peek inside the mind of RAS, an industry leader, and figure out how they break down and handicap games.

It's the equivalent of sitting down at a poker table with Dan Harrington.

So, here's my question: Assuming you trust the provider of the analysis, would you PAY FOR IT? If you would, then I think pick-selling sites should make a conscious effort toward becoming more of an analysis and education site than a tout site.

Will it pay as well? Of course not. But if the goal is to provide value to customers, and if that's "all that matters," then I'd argue the analysis is much better bang-for-your-buck than crappy plays that hit at a 51.4 percent clip.

* * *

Note: I know Pregame Pros generally include write-ups with their plays, but the analysis in some cases is incredibly weak and often seems rushed.

Note II: You can certainly argue that nobody would want to know how a losing handicapper arrives at the wrong results.

[JSpauny]

Just my personal opinion that I won't ever pay for picks, but if this kind of analysis was regular, its hard not to consider. That breakdown doesnt just help you that week, it has potential to help the rest of the season. So what if that under lost that week, what if that analysis leads to successful totals bets for those 2 teams for the next 3-4 weeks. Wouldnt everyone consider that a good thing?

I know not everyone wants a huge writeup, but i think it benefits people much more to have it than a pick or a half-assed writeup. Its one of the main selling points of this site: methodology. I could give a rats ass if you picked the game right, its how you came to that conclusion that i care about. And with the analysis above, it clearly shows how they got to that conclusion. Far more important than the actual pick.

[TheHomerBoys]

BTB - you do this for free. And better than any tout could.

So no, I wouldn't pay and I don't think anyone else would either.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-04-2012 02:26 PM)TheHomerBoys Wrote:  BTB - you do this for free. And better than any tout could.

So no, I wouldn't pay and I don't think anyone else would either.

We're a news and information site and approach things from a journalistic perspective. We're NOT professional bettors. Surely the analysis that someone like RAS could provide - at least in terms of breaking down a game and the process behind "arriving at the correct answer" - is far superior than anything we could offer.

[TheHomerBoys]

We're a news and information site and approach things from a journalistic perspective. We're NOT professional bettors. Surely the analysis that someone like RAS could provide - at least in terms of breaking down a game and the process behind "arriving at the correct answer" - is far superior than anything we could offer.
[/quote]

That's true. But your blog entries are extremely valuable to both recreational and professional bettors and they are free of charge. You might report stuff as news, info, etc, but it's broken down in a simple matter in which people can easily read and understand and then apply it to their handicapping.

I think paying for information and analysis is something serious sports bettors (or people who like to do it themselves) would do. And I think for the most part at least 95% of these guys know Pregame and Covers are bullshit. Now, if we are talking about Edward and RAS giving out his information, then of course I'd be interested. And I think the majority of the posters here would agree.

So I guess, I would be interested in buying analysis and that stuff, but only if it comes from pro bettors or proven handicapping services - and we know how few of those are out here.

P.S. You might not be pro bettors, but I'm listening to you guys over any Pregame or Covers tout any day of the week.

[LOLstradamus]

If the source is incredibly reputable and has demonstrated long-term success (like RAS), I'd maybe consider it, however one of my favorite things about sports betting is to come up with my own analysis and watch it unfold as I predicted. Outsourcing that level of thinking doesn't sound fun to me unless I notice someone completely tearing it up.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(08-04-2012 02:26 PM)TheHomerBoys Wrote:  BTB - you do this for free. And better than any tout could.

So no, I wouldn't pay and I don't think anyone else would either.

I believe many pros would if it were viable. Many pros use RAS.

I do buy the gold sheet every year because it is trusted info that is solid. I would pay, depending on price.

[Wiseguy]

I think the majority do not care how you come to find winners, they just want winners. I may be wrong about this, but I think the majority of pick buyers are recreational sports fans who love action. They could care less about the decision making process etc. Sure they like to read a line or two about a trend or injury, but I believe in general people are lazy and just want to place the bet and watch the game.

[Edward-RAS]

I guess the question is how many people are striving to become originators? It seems to be a dying breed.

[VincentValour]

(08-05-2012 10:18 AM)Wiseguy Wrote:  I think the majority do not care how you come to find winners, they just want winners. I may be wrong about this, but I think the majority of pick buyers are recreational sports fans who love action. They could care less about the decision making process etc. Sure they like to read a line or two about a trend or injury, but I believe in general people are lazy and just want to place the bet and watch the game.

This.

Being on this forum, I sometimes catch myself forgetting how square and short sided the general betting public is. IMO to get better pick/information sellers, the pick buyers have to get smarter first. Thus creating a solid market for honest, long term winning pick sellers.

It reminds me of the stock market, the first thing anyone wants to know is which stock is going to go on a bull rush in price. People like Jim Kramer yell for certain stocks of the week, if no one was paying attention he wouldn't be on TV.

A guy who is busy doing well using many tools is often too boring or too busy to deal with any of that. Practicing money management, having short term investments, long term investments, reading the market, doing time consuming research, and often even staying away. An investor/pick seller who is grinding arbitrage for clients, and making one pick every two weeks isn't going to get much publicity.

[Wiseguy]

(08-05-2012 11:29 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  

(08-05-2012 10:18 AM)Wiseguy Wrote:  I think the majority do not care how you come to find winners, they just want winners. I may be wrong about this, but I think the majority of pick buyers are recreational sports fans who love action. They could care less about the decision making process etc. Sure they like to read a line or two about a trend or injury, but I believe in general people are lazy and just want to place the bet and watch the game.

This.

Being on this forum, I sometimes catch myself forgetting how square and short sided the general betting public is. IMO to get better pick/information sellers, the pick buyers have to get smarter first. Thus creating a solid market for honest, long term winning pick sellers.

It reminds me of the stock market, the first thing anyone wants to know is which stock is going to go on a bull rush in price. People like Jim Kramer yell for certain stocks of the week, if no one was paying attention he wouldn't be on TV.

A guy who is busy doing well using many tools is often too boring or too busy to deal with any of that. Practicing money management, having short term investments, long term investments, reading the market, doing time consuming research, and often even staying away. An investor/pick seller who is grinding arbitrage for clients, and making one pick every two weeks isn't going to get much publicity.

I was a stock broker for 8 years and can tell you the similarities between pick buyers and the retail brokerage clients are amazing. I watched brokers sell stories even if the fundamentals sucked and they would always do great numbers but would rarely keep clients long term due to poor performance. Its the same with pick selling, the average guy wants the sexy story and could care less about the intricate details. So you have to make a choice, go for the low hanging fruit (the uniformed) or go after a smarter level of client and develop long lasting relationships.

[VincentValour]

(08-05-2012 01:28 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  

(08-05-2012 11:29 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  

(08-05-2012 10:18 AM)Wiseguy Wrote:  I think the majority do not care how you come to find winners, they just want winners. I may be wrong about this, but I think the majority of pick buyers are recreational sports fans who love action. They could care less about the decision making process etc. Sure they like to read a line or two about a trend or injury, but I believe in general people are lazy and just want to place the bet and watch the game.

This.

Being on this forum, I sometimes catch myself forgetting how square and short sided the general betting public is. IMO to get better pick/information sellers, the pick buyers have to get smarter first. Thus creating a solid market for honest, long term winning pick sellers.

It reminds me of the stock market, the first thing anyone wants to know is which stock is going to go on a bull rush in price. People like Jim Kramer yell for certain stocks of the week, if no one was paying attention he wouldn't be on TV.

A guy who is busy doing well using many tools is often too boring or too busy to deal with any of that. Practicing money management, having short term investments, long term investments, reading the market, doing time consuming research, and often even staying away. An investor/pick seller who is grinding arbitrage for clients, and making one pick every two weeks isn't going to get much publicity.

I was a stock broker for 8 years and can tell you the similarities between pick buyers and the retail brokerage clients are amazing. I watched brokers sell stories even if the fundamentals sucked and they would always do great numbers but would rarely keep clients long term due to poor performance. Its the same with pick selling, the average guy wants the sexy story and could care less about the intricate details. So you have to make a choice, go for the low hanging fruit (the uniformed) or go after a smarter level of client and develop long lasting relationships.

Yep I think you nailed it. A market will develop out of necessity if there are enough clientele/ potential pick buyers demanding services like RAS. Until then RAS will be the minority. Which is why sites like BTB are valuable, in getting the information out there.