Win totals

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 04:43 PM)HujoTDs Wrote:  Where are you guys seeing that Air Force 7.5 number?

Bodog.

[HujoTDs]

Adding UNLV

UNLV
UNLV at Wisconsin -35 35 0.0%
UNLV at Washington State -10 10 23.6%
Hawaii -16.5 at UNLV 16.5 10.0%
Southern Utah at UNLV -12.5 -12.5 74.7%
UNLV at Nevada -19.5 19.5 11.9%
UNLV at Wyoming -8 8 29.1%
Colorado State -4 at UNLV 4 40.0%
Boise State -30.5 at UNLV 30.5 0.0%
UNLV at New Mexico -2.5 2.5 47.3%
UNLV at Air Force -20.5 20.5 7.9%
San Diego State -16.5 at UNLV 16.5 10.0%
UNLV at TCU -29.5 29.5 0.0%
Season Wins Total 2.5

[Beyond the Bets]

From VegasObie (UNLV expert) in another thread:

I'm seeing UNLV win total at either 2.5 or 3, obviously much more juice to pay if you want under 3. That's an easy play, no way this team wins 4. After an 0-3 start they should get a W vs. Southern Utah. The next 2 most winnable games are against Wyoming and New Mexico, but both are on the road. On top of that, both come after games that should take alot out of the Rebels. Wyoming is after the Nevada game which is highly emotional here and UNLV is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in weeks after Nevada game. They get New Mexico after hosting Boise, so expect the Rebels to be pretty beat up. Best case scenario is a split in those 2 games. The only other option I'm seeing for a W is hosting Colorado State and that comes after a bye week. If you can get 3 and are comfortable with the juice, take the under. If you are only finding 2.5, tough call but I would probably go under and then hope for no upsets.

[ChiefZilla]

(08-22-2011 06:45 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  From VegasObie (UNLV expert) in another thread:

I'm seeing UNLV win total at either 2.5 or 3, obviously much more juice to pay if you want under 3. That's an easy play, no way this team wins 4. After an 0-3 start they should get a W vs. Southern Utah. The next 2 most winnable games are against Wyoming and New Mexico, but both are on the road. On top of that, both come after games that should take alot out of the Rebels. Wyoming is after the Nevada game which is highly emotional here and UNLV is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in weeks after Nevada game. They get New Mexico after hosting Boise, so expect the Rebels to be pretty beat up. Best case scenario is a split in those 2 games. The only other option I'm seeing for a W is hosting Colorado State and that comes after a bye week. If you can get 3 and are comfortable with the juice, take the under. If you are only finding 2.5, tough call but I would probably go under and then hope for no upsets.

Interesting take. Love having the insight from one of the locals!

[SkyBlues42]

Tough to make any play on a team's win total that is reliant on games against Southern Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico.

[HujoTDs]

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Adding Utah, Oregon State, and North Carolina. Looks like there may be a play on North Carolina

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-23-2011 08:53 AM)HujoTDs Wrote:  

Wow! Great find and thanks for bringing this to my attention. 5Dimes has North Carolina listed at over/under 8 (under -155), and TheGreek has NC at 7.5 (under +110).

8 (un -120) at BOL is incredible value and I see no scenario in which the Heels exceed that total. I might write about this at some point today, but I think UNC's situation has flown under the radar throughout the offseason.

Losing your head coach — and a pretty darn good one, at that — to a (somewhat) unexpected firing is significant. I think North Carolina is far more likely to win 7 games than 8 games this year — and 8 is a push, so I'm not afraid of it.

With Miami and Auburn and Oregon and LSU commanding all the offseason attention, I haven't seen much of any discussion surrounding North Carolina. This team could totally implode, and while the schedule is easy, plenty of those games (Louisville, Rutgers, East Carolina, etc.) are potential losses.

[Skating Tripods]

Re: UNC, that's why I don't really understand a flat number. You have to put a half number on UNC. There's no way that they win 9, a decent chance that they win 8, a better chance that they win 7. I guess that's why you're giving up an extra nickel/dime of juice on the under, but it looks like a relative freeroll. Sort of why I took USF over and Michigan under at plus money. They look like freerolls. Push or come through. Assuming USF stays healthy and UM has a transition year with Hoke.

Re: Nevada, they're listed as favored in 9 games, but their win total is projected to only 7.6? I can't see them being that much of a dog at Texas Tech, either. This isn't to say that they're going to set the world on fire, and I think that Fresno St. game is the biggest problem at the back of their schedule, but I'd put them more around 8.3 wins.

[wazzufan]

(08-23-2011 10:07 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Re: UNC, that's why I don't really understand a flat number. You have to put a half number on UNC. There's no way that they win 9, a decent chance that they win 8, a better chance that they win 7. I guess that's why you're giving up an extra nickel/dime of juice on the under, but it looks like a relative freeroll. Sort of why I took USF over and Michigan under at plus money. They look like freerolls. Push or come through. Assuming USF stays healthy and UM has a transition year with Hoke.

Re: Nevada, they're listed as favored in 9 games, but their win total is projected to only 7.6? I can't see them being that much of a dog at Texas Tech, either. This isn't to say that they're going to set the world on fire, and I think that Fresno St. game is the biggest problem at the back of their schedule, but I'd put them more around 8.3 wins.

these numbers are sculpted. all the way down to the money line. the half games matter, and that's why books use them. it's also while they'll juice numbers they don't like.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-23-2011 11:48 AM)wazzufan Wrote:  these numbers are sculpted. all the way down to the money line. the half games matter, and that's why books use them. it's also while they'll juice numbers they don't like.

Here's what I'm saying. A half game helps the book in this case because it encourages more play on the over. I think the only reason that the under is just at -120 is because a push is pretty likely. The action has to be at least 70-30 on the under, if not more. The juice should probably be higher on the under in my mind. Unless sharper bettors are high on UNC, but I wouldn't think they are.

Even at an extra nickel/dime of juice, they're going to be paying out quite a bit if UNC only wins 7.

I just don't see where a push of 8 benefits them. Sure, it's a no win-no loss situation, but at 7.5, you're going to get a 55-45 or a 45-55 split and have a chance at making money off the prop.

[SkyBlues42]

(08-24-2011 12:37 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(08-23-2011 11:48 AM)wazzufan Wrote:  these numbers are sculpted. all the way down to the money line. the half games matter, and that's why books use them. it's also while they'll juice numbers they don't like.

Here's what I'm saying. A half game helps the book in this case because it encourages more play on the over. I think the only reason that the under is just at -120 is because a push is pretty likely. The action has to be at least 70-30 on the under, if not more. The juice should probably be higher on the under in my mind. Unless sharper bettors are high on UNC, but I wouldn't think they are.

Even at an extra nickel/dime of juice, they're going to be paying out quite a bit if UNC only wins 7.

I just don't see where a push of 8 benefits them. Sure, it's a no win-no loss situation, but at 7.5, you're going to get a 55-45 or a 45-55 split and have a chance at making money off the prop.

Just playing it safe.. IMO

[HujoTDs]

Adding Illinois



I figure Illinois would benefit most of any team from the Rob Henry (Purdue QB) ACL tear. A small edge would matter most in a close game and Purdue's closest game should be the Illinois game.

5Dimes has Illinois at 6.5 Over -210. That juice is annoying, at that point I wish they would just move the number. Seems conventional wisdom is that 50 cents of juice equals 0.5 W so that would be the equivalent of 7.5 Over -110.

Thoughts?

[Beyond the Bets]

Wouldn't lay that kind of juice on any win total. Too much can go wrong, especially when it involves Ron Zook.

[HujoTDs]

Likewise here is Minnesota who was listed at Minnesota at Purdue -5 although I can't find any posted Season Totals for them to compare to the 4.3.

[Skating Tripods]

No reason to lay the 210. If you can talk yourself in to the under, which I could make a case, there might be value on the +170 or whatever the under is. But, it would require them getting upset by one/both of Purdue/Indiana on the road and another bump in the road elsewhere.

[wazzufan]

there are certain exceptions to laying heavy juice and i think boise is one of them. i would lay -500 on them to go over 10. that team isnt winning only 9.

[SkyBlues42]

(08-25-2011 12:00 PM)wazzufan Wrote:  there are certain exceptions to laying heavy juice and i think boise is one of them. i would lay -500 on them to go over 10. that team isnt winning only 9.

even if it was ever -500?.. granted, it's a win-- but you'd have to draw the line at some point..

[HujoTDs]

Here's an interesting one. Pretty sure I've run through 59 of these and this is the first one where both the number and the juice are on your side. Any Vanderbilt news of late that would cause people to go under that total?



Likely Wins
Elon, Army

Coin Flips Wins
Uconn, Ole Miss, and Wake Forest

Decent Chance Wins
Kentucky

Unlikely Wins
South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida

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I haven't seen a number posted on Houston but I was surprised to see they were predicted to be favored in 11 of 12 games with a +1 @ Tulsa the only exception. I love Houston this year and I would love to play them an 8.5 Over -110.

[Beyond the Bets]

James Franklin (Vandy coach) is an impressive guy. I saw him up close for a year while he was at Kansas State. He's high energy, full of enthusiasm and ... has no clue what he's getting himself into.

Still, why couldn't Vandy win four games? Elon and Army should be wins and if they can win just ONE other game on the schedule leading up to the Wake Forest game, they'll be at 3 wins.

If nothing else, you could bet Wake at a pick 'em spread in the finale and hedge your bet.

[Skating Tripods]

Army between Georgia and Arkansas on the Vandy sched. Anything over a TD and I like Army to cover, if not win SU. I'd probably take a shot at them +200 or higher.