Win totals

[ChiefZilla]

(08-22-2011 11:48 AM)HujoTDs Wrote:  

(08-21-2011 10:47 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Seems like it might be useful for higher spreads, i.e. a favorite of 24-28 points wins a certain percentage, instead of narrowing it to exactly 25.5, or something like that.

Just ran LSU out of curiosity. Looks like there is value on the under even before this past weekend's shenanigans.

Any suspensions with 3 near coin flip games in the first month all away from home would have quite a compounded effect.

LSU
Oregon -1 vs. LSU* 47.9%
Northwestern State at LSU -37.5 100.0%
LSU -4.5 at Mississippi State* 54.1%
LSU -3 at West Virginia* 57.2%
Kentucky at LSU -17 91.7%
Florida at LSU* -9 81.4%
LSU -8.5 at Tennessee* 71.3%
Auburn at LSU* -13.5 81.8%
LSU at Alabama* -6 28.9%
Western Kentucky at LSU -38.5 100.0%
LSU -14 at Ole Miss 78.6%
Arkansas at LSU* -6.5 70.2%
Season Wins Total 8.6
BetOnline 9.5 (Under 9½ -160)

Yeah, I have LSU pegged as one of those teams that could fall hard in 2011. There are just far too many opportunities for a slip-up on the schedule. Every year it seems like a highly rated SEC team can't handle the week-to-week grind, and LSU has to add Oregon and West Virginia to that equation, too.

[HujoTDs]

Here is Oregon, Stanford, Ohio State, Alabama, and Wisconsin

Oregon
Oregon -1 vs. LSU* 52.1%
Nevada at Oregon -20.5 92.1%
Missouri State at Oregon -49.5 100.0%
Oregon -11 at Arizona 69.1%
California at Oregon -15.5 85.1%
Arizona State at Oregon* -11 69.1%
Oregon -17 at Colorado 91.7%
Washington State at Oregon -31 100.0%
Oregon -9.5 at Washington 72.1%
Oregon -1 at Stanford* 52.1%
USC at Oregon* -10 76.4%
Oregon State at Oregon -15 86.3%
Season Wins Total 9.5

Stanford
San Jose State at Stanford -26.5 100.0%
Stanford -17 at Duke 91.7%
Stanford -7 at Arizona 67.8%
UCLA at Stanford -14 78.6%
Colorado at Stanford -18.5 94.6%
Stanford -22.5 at Washington State 92.5%
Washington at Stanford -10.5 69.9%
Stanford -1 at USC* 52.1%
Stanford -4.5 at Oregon State 54.1%
Oregon -1 at Stanford* 47.9%
California at Stanford* -11.5 81.3%
Notre Dame at Stanford -5 63.5%
Season Wins Total 8.9
BetOnline Under 9 -150

Ohio State
Akron at Ohio State -32.5 100.0%
Toledo at Ohio State -23 94.0%
Ohio State at Miami (FL) pk 50.0%
Colorado at Ohio State -17.5 92.1%
Michigan State at Ohio State -3 57.2%
Ohio State at Nebraska -10 23.6%
Ohio State -3.5 at Illinois 61.1%
Wisconsin -2 at Ohio State 49.0%
Indiana at Ohio State -21.5 96.4%
Ohio State -8.5 at Purdue 71.3%
Penn State at Ohio State -3.5 61.1%
Ohio State -1.5 at Michigan 50.9%
Season Wins Total 8.1
BetOnline Under 8.5 +105

Alabama
Kent State at Alabama -35.5 100.0%
Alabama -7.5 at Penn State* 74.8%
North Texas at Alabama -36.5 100.0%
Arkansas at Alabama* -10 76.4%
Alabama -7 at Florida* 67.8%
Vanderbilt at Alabama -27 100.0%
Alabama -15.5 at Ole Miss 85.1%
Tennessee at Alabama* -16.5 90.0%
LSU at Alabama* -6 71.1%
Alabama -8 at Mississippi State* 70.9%
Georgia Southern at Alabama -44 100.0%
Alabama -12 at Auburn 83.5%
Season Wins Total 10.2
BetOnline Under 10.5 -130

Wisconsin
UNLV at Wisconsin -35 100.0%
Oregon State at Wisconsin -15.5 85.1%
Northern Illinois vs. Wisconsin -16 82.8%
South Dakota at Wisconsin -42.5 100.0%
Nebraska at Wisconsin* -2.5 52.7%
Indiana at Wisconsin -24 96.4%
Wisconsin -1.5 at Michigan State* 50.9%
Wisconsin -2 at Ohio State 51.0%
Purdue at Wisconsin -21.5 96.4%
Wisconsin -17.5 at Minnesota 92.1%
Wisconsin -5.5 at Illinois 64.8%
Penn State at Wisconsin -9 81.4%
Season Wins Total 9.5
BetOnline Under 9.5 -110

---

(08-22-2011 12:27 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  What are your top 3 win totals for 2011?

Top 3
Boise State 10.8
Alabama 10.2
Virginia Tech 10.1

Oklahoma 9.8
Oregon 9.5
Wisconsin 9.5
Nebraska 9.4
West Virginia 9.0
Stanford 8.9
Texas A&M 8.7
LSU 8.6
BYU 8.5
Arizona State 8.2
Ohio State 8.1
Notre Dame 8.1
Oklahoma State 8.1
USC 7.8
Texas 7.6
Penn State 7.6
Missouri 7.3
Texas Tech 7.3
Baylor 6.1
Auburn 5.9
Kansas State 5.8
Arizona 5.6
Kansas 3.2

---

And here is Florida State, South Carolina, TCU, Arkansas, Michigan State, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Florida which I believe at least rounds out the Top 25.

Florida State
Louisiana-Monroe at Florida State -28 -28 100.0%
Charleston Southern at Florida State -43 -43 100.0%
Oklahoma -2 at Florida State* 2 49.0%
Florida State -5 at Clemson* -5 63.5%
Florida State -20 at Wake Forest -20 90.0%
Florida State -21 at Duke -21 93.7%
Maryland at Florida State* -16.5 -16.5 90.0%
NC State at Florida State* -14.5 -14.5 83.7%
Florida State -11 at Boston College -11 69.1%
Miami (FL) at Florida State* -8.5 -8.5 71.3%
Virginia at Florida State -21.5 -21.5 96.4%
Florida State -2 at Florida -2 51.0%
Season Wins Total 9.6
BetOnline Over 9.5 -135

South Carolina
East Carolina vs. South Carolina -20.5 -20.5 92.1%
South Carolina -1 at Georgia* -1 52.1%
Navy at South Carolina -21 -21 93.7%
Vanderbilt at South Carolina -20 -20 90.0%
Auburn at South Carolina* -10 -10 76.4%
Kentucky at South Carolina -14.5 -14.5 83.7%
South Carolina -1.5 at Mississippi State* -1.5 50.9%
South Carolina -6 at Tennessee* -6 71.1%
South Carolina at Arkansas* -3.5 3.5 38.9%
Florida at South Carolina* -6.5 -6.5 70.2%
Citadel at South Carolina -37.5 -37.5 100.0%
Clemson at South Carolina -9.5 -9.5 72.1%
Season Wins Total 8.9
BetOnline Under 9 -125

TCU
TCU -7 at Baylor -7 67.8%
TCU -3.5 at Air Force* -3.5 61.1%
Louisiana-Monroe at TCU -20.5 -20.5 92.1%
Portland State at TCU* -35 -35 100.0%
SMU at TCU* -10 -10 76.4%
TCU -5.5 at San Diego State* -5.5 64.8%
New Mexico at TCU -27 -27 100.0%
BYU at TCU* -2.5 -2.5 52.7%
TCU -18 at Wyoming -18 92.4%
TCU at Boise State* -14.5 14.5 16.3%
Colorado State at TCU -17.5 -17.5 92.1%
UNLV at TCU -29.5 -29.5 100.0%
Season Wins Total 9.2
BetOnline Over 9 -130

Arkansas
Missouri State at Arkansas -38.5 -38.5 100.0%
New Mexico at Arkansas -33.5 -33.5 100.0%
Troy at Arkansas -23.5 -23.5 97.4%
Arkansas at Alabama* -10 10 23.6%
Texas A&M -2 vs. Arkansas* 2 49.0%
Auburn at Arkansas* -10 -10 76.4%
Arkansas -7.5 at Ole Miss -7.5 74.8%
Arkansas -14 at Vanderbilt -14 78.6%
South Carolina at Arkansas* -3.5 -3.5 61.1%
Tennessee at Arkansas* -11.5 -11.5 81.3%
Mississippi State at Arkansas* -8.5 -8.5 71.3%
Arkansas at LSU* -6.5 6.5 29.8%
Season Wins Total 8.4
BetOnline Over 8.5 -115

Michigan State
Youngstown State at Michigan State -30.5 -30.5 100.0%
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State -27 -27 100.0%
Michigan State at Notre Dame* -7 7 32.2%
Central Michigan at Michigan State -22.5 -22.5 92.5%
Michigan State at Ohio State -3 3 42.8%
Michigan at Michigan State* -6 -6 71.1%
Wisconsin -1.5 at Michigan State* 1.5 49.1%
Michigan State at Nebraska* -8 8 29.1%
Minnesota at Michigan State -20 -20 90.0%
Michigan State at Iowa -1 1 47.9%
Indiana at Michigan State -18.5 -18.5 94.6%
Michigan State -2.5 at Northwestern -2.5 52.7%
Season Wins Total 8.0
BetOnline Over 7.5 -145

Georgia
Boise State -3 at Georgia* 3 42.8%
South Carolina -1 at Georgia* 1 47.9%
Coastal Carolina at Georgia -41.5 -41.5 100.0%
Georgia -10.5 at Ole Miss -10.5 69.9%
Mississippi State at Georgia* -6 -6 71.1%
Georgia -3 at Tennessee* -3 57.2%
Georgia -12.5 at Vanderbilt -12.5 74.7%
Georgia -1 vs. Florida* -1 52.1%
New Mexico State at Georgia -42.5 -42.5 100.0%
Auburn at Georgia* -9.5 -9.5 72.1%
Kentucky at Georgia -14.5 -14.5 83.7%
Georgia -7.5 at Georgia Tech -7.5 74.8%
Season Wins Total 8.5
BetOnline Under 8.5 +115

Mississippi State
Mississippi State -27.5 at Memphis -27.5 100.0%
Mississippi State -2 at Auburn* -2 51.0%
LSU -4.5 at Mississippi State* 4.5 45.9%
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State -21 -21 93.7%
Mississippi State at Georgia* -6 6 28.9%
Mississippi State -17.5 at UAB -17.5 92.1%
South Carolina -1.5 at Mississippi State* 1.5 49.1%
Mississippi State -6.5 at Kentucky -6.5 70.2%
Tennessee-Martin at Mississippi State -38 -38 100.0%
Alabama -8 at Mississippi State* 8 29.1%
Mississippi State at Arkansas* -8.5 8.5 28.8%
Ole Miss at Mississippi State -9.5 -9.5 72.1%
Season Wins Total 7.6
BetOnline Under 7.5 -110

Florida
Florida Atlantic at Florida -31 -31 100.0%
UAB at Florida -23 -23 94.0%
Tennessee at Florida* -7 -7 67.8%
Florida -10 at Kentucky -10 76.4%
Alabama -7 at Florida* 7 32.2%
Florida at LSU* -9 9 18.6%
Florida -2.5 at Auburn* -2.5 52.7%
Georgia -1 vs. Florida* 1 47.9%
Vanderbilt at Florida -17.5 -17.5 92.1%
Florida at South Carolina* -6.5 6.5 29.8%
Furman at Florida -31.5 -31.5 100.0%
Florida State -2 at Florida 2 49.0%
Season Wins Total 7.6
BetOnline Under 7.5 -125

And.. an updated aggregate list with these additional teams:
Boise State 10.8
Alabama 10.2
Virginia Tech 10.1
Oklahoma 9.8
Florida St 9.6
Oregon 9.5
Wisconsin 9.5
Nebraska 9.4
TCU 9.2
West Virginia 9.0
Stanford 8.9
South Carolina 8.9
Texas A&M 8.7
LSU 8.6
BYU 8.5
Georgia 8.5
Arkansas 8.4
Arizona State 8.2
Ohio State 8.1
Notre Dame 8.1
Oklahoma State 8.1
Michigan St 8.0
USC 7.8
Texas 7.6
Penn State 7.6
Florida 7.6
Mississippi St 7.6
Missouri 7.3
Texas Tech 7.3
Baylor 6.1
Auburn 5.9
Kansas State 5.8
Arizona 5.6
Kansas 3.2

[Skating Tripods]

So far I've got Tennessee u6.5, Texas Tech u7.5, USF o8, and Michigan u7.

I was shocked to see Bodog with Tenn under at +120. One wiseguy who I talk to had them well below that number but said other people he talks to like them.

Got Michigan and USF at plus money which I think is a great investment since I project them to either push or produce a winning wager.

[Beyond the Bets]

Worst-case scenario on Tennessee is you'll have an option to hedge in final week against Kentucky. At best, the Vols should have six wins heading into the finale.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 01:50 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Worst-case scenario on Tennessee is you'll have an option to hedge in final week against Kentucky. At best, the Vols should have six wins heading into the finale.

True, and the last four years, the spread in that game has been UK -2, +3, +3, +2, leaving me pretty good value on the Tenn ML to hedge.

[ChiefZilla]

(08-22-2011 01:49 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  So far I've got Tennessee u6.5, Texas Tech u7.5, USF o8, and Michigan u7.

I'm also not very high on Texas Tech this year, and I think 7-5 is more likely than 8-4. The problem, their schedule is soft at the beginning and they could likely start 5-1 and/or 6-2. That means you're counting on a second-half collapse, but that's entirely possible with games at UT, Okla St at home, at Mizzou and Baylor on a neutral field to close the year.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 01:57 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I'm also not very high on Texas Tech this year, and I think 7-5 is more likely than 8-4. The problem, their schedule is soft at the beginning and they could likely start 5-1 and/or 6-2. That means you're counting on a second-half collapse, but that's entirely possible with games at UT, Okla St at home, at Mizzou and Baylor on a neutral field to close the year.

I got it at u7.5 -120 on Bodog. It's now u7 -125. We're not alone being down on TexTech.

I pegged a best case at 6-6. Wins over TSU, NMU, KU. Toss-ups with KSU, ISU, BU. Losses to NU, A&M, OU, UT, OSU, and Mizzou.

Watered down Texas or not, Tech hasn't won in Austin since '97 (0-6).

[HujoTDs]

Below are Tennessee, South Florida, and Michigan.

Tennessee
Montana at Tennessee -18.5 -18.5 94.6%
Cincinnati at Tennessee -8 -8 70.9%
Tennessee at Florida* -7 7 32.2%
Buffalo at Tennessee -27.5 -27.5 100.0%
Georgia -3 at Tennessee* 3 42.8%
LSU -8.5 at Tennessee* 8.5 28.8%
Tennessee at Alabama* -16.5 16.5 10.0%
South Carolina -6 at Tennessee* 6 28.9%
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee -21.5 -21.5 96.4%
Tennessee at Arkansas* -11.5 11.5 18.8%
Vanderbilt at Tennessee -14 -14 78.6%
Tennessee -3 at Kentucky -3 57.2%
Season Wins Total 6.6
BetOnline Under 6.5 -140

South Florida
South Florida at Notre Dame -10.5 10.5 30.1%
Ball State at South Florida -24 -24 96.4%
Florida A&M at South Florida -34 -34 100.0%
UTEP at South Florida -20.5 -20.5 92.1%
South Florida at Pittsburgh -4.5 4.5 45.9%
South Florida -3 at Connecticut -3 57.2%
Cincinnati at South Florida -6 -6 71.1%
South Florida -4 at Rutgers -4 60.0%
South Florida -1.5 at Syracuse -1.5 50.9%
Miami (FL) at South Florida pick 0 50.0%
Louisville at South Florida -8 -8 70.9%
West Virginia -3.5 at South Florida 3.5 38.9%
Season Wins Total 7.6

Michigan
Western Michigan at Michigan -14.5 -14.5 83.7%
Notre Dame -3 at Michigan* 3 42.8%
Eastern Michigan at Michigan -31 -31 100.0%
San Diego State at Michigan* -7.5 -7.5 74.8%
Minnesota at Michigan -13.5 -13.5 81.8%
Michigan at Northwestern* -1.5 1.5 49.1%
Michigan at Michigan State* -6 6 28.9%
Purdue at Michigan -9 -9 81.4%
Michigan at Iowa -4.5 4.5 45.9%
Michigan at Illinois -3 3 42.8%
Nebraska -5 at Michigan* 5 36.5%
Ohio State -1.5 at Michigan 1.5 49.1%
Season Wins Total 7.2
BetOnline Over 7 -125

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 02:09 PM)HujoTDs Wrote:  Michigan at Northwestern* -1.5 1.5 49.1%
Michigan at Illinois -3 3 42.8%

Now, I know what you're basing these on, but, man, to say Michigan has a better chance winning at NW than at Illinois? I don't know.

I'd probably put the lines the other way around.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-22-2011 02:01 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(08-22-2011 01:57 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I'm also not very high on Texas Tech this year, and I think 7-5 is more likely than 8-4. The problem, their schedule is soft at the beginning and they could likely start 5-1 and/or 6-2. That means you're counting on a second-half collapse, but that's entirely possible with games at UT, Okla St at home, at Mizzou and Baylor on a neutral field to close the year.

I got it at u7.5 -120 on Bodog. It's now u7 -125. We're not alone being down on TexTech.

I pegged a best case at 6-6. Wins over TSU, NMU, KU. Toss-ups with KSU, ISU, BU. Losses to NU, A&M, OU, UT, OSU, and Mizzou.

Watered down Texas or not, Tech hasn't won in Austin since '97 (0-6).

7.5 is a bad # for TT. I think 7 with over juiced is best.

[HujoTDs]

Let me throw my hat in as being down on TTU as well. Whoever got them u7.5 got great value.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 02:14 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  7.5 is a bad # for TT. I think 7 with over juiced is best.

Like I said, it's o7 -105 on Bodog now. I imagine it's locked in now. Can't go back up, can't go to 6.5 or the 7.5 guys have a beautiful middle, though I still don't think they win 7.

[HujoTDs]

I'm staring at TTU trying to figure out why my calculation has them at 7.3. I already mentioned once on this thread that the Texas number may be giving them too much respect but in looking at it I think the OSU and Mizzou numbers could be as well.

Texas Tech at Texas -4.5
Oklahoma State -2 at Texas Tech
Texas Tech at Missouri -3.5

[Skating Tripods]

(08-22-2011 02:41 PM)HujoTDs Wrote:  I'm staring at TTU trying to figure out why my calculation has them at 7.3. I already mentioned once on this thread that the Texas number may be giving them too much respect but in looking at it I think the OSU and Mizzou numbers could be as well.

Texas Tech at Texas -4.5
Oklahoma State -2 at Texas Tech
Texas Tech at Missouri -3.5

I'm thinking more like 6.5 maybe 7.5 with Texas depending how Gilbert and Malcolm Brown look at that point. If UT is scoring, I think it's 7.5 or maybe even more.

OK St. -4.5 sound closer? Does last year's 34-17 with OKSt -3 at Tech dictate that line this year?

Mizzou, like Texas, depends on QB play. Might be in that in-between stage of 5 or 5.5.

[Beyond the Bets]

Texas Tech's schedule:

WINS (6) — Texas State, at New Mexico, Nevada, at Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State.
LOSSES (5) — at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Texas, Oklahoma State, at Missouri.
TOSS-UPS (1) — Baylor*

*neutral

[Skating Tripods]

You're giving them the Nevada game and not calling it a toss-up? I know Nevada has a ton of turnover, but wow. I'll be interested to see how they replace Kaepernick, but they return their top 2 WR if they do throw more.

As a side note, what a brutal first four games for Nevada. All away and Oregon, San Jose St., TexTech, and Boise St. Ouch.

---

What's everybody's feelings on Air Force? Returning all skill players, OL has 3 Sr. and 2 Jr. Defense is mostly in tact with 8/11 ret. starters.

Then there's their schedule. TCU in game 2. @Navy and ND back to back. Then SDSU and then @ Boise. Besides that 4 game stretch, they should have 6 wins. Their total is 7.5. I think the over was -105 on Bodog.

Thoughts?

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-22-2011 03:45 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  You're giving them the Nevada game and not calling it a toss-up? I know Nevada has a ton of turnover, but wow. I'll be interested to see how they replace Kaepernick, but they return their top 2 WR if they do throw more.

As a side note, what a brutal first four games for Nevada. All away and Oregon, San Jose St., TexTech, and Boise St. Ouch.

---

What's everybody's feelings on Air Force? Returning all skill players, OL has 3 Sr. and 2 Jr. Defense is mostly in tact with 8/11 ret. starters.

Then there's their schedule. TCU in game 2. @Navy and ND back to back. Then SDSU and then @ Boise. Besides that 4 game stretch, they should have 6 wins. Their total is 7.5. I think the over was -105 on Bodog.

Thoughts?

Sorry, all those should be "LIKELY WINS" and "LIKELY LOSSES." For instance, I don't think it would be inconceivable for TT to lose the K-State or Nevada games but win the Oklahoma State or Texas A&M games.

The Baylor game is a genuine toss up.

As for Air Force, I'm a believer. I think they stomp out TCU (Frogs will struggle early and throughout the year against equal or better talent, IMO), beat Navy and give Notre Dame all they can handle. But man, what a brutal October stretch (which, as you noted, also includes a road game at Boise State).

I think Air Force has a great shot to win 9 and could win 10 if everything falls into place. They'll be favored in nine games overall including the last five against New Mexico, Army, Wyoming, UNLV and Colorado State.

Air Force will be favored by at least two TD's against the first four teams and will be a single-digit favorite (probably anywhere between 3 and 7.5 points) at Colorado State.

[Skating Tripods]

Just checked to verify my post, the over is -110 now on AFA o7.5.

[Beyond the Bets]

The over 7.5 on Air Force is free money.

The Falcons are 32-point favorites against South Dakota (1), 35-point favorites against Tennessee State (2), 18-point favorites against New Mexico (3), 17.5 point favorites against Army (4), 16.5-point favorites against Wyoming (5), 20.5-point favorites against UNLV (6).

Right there, you've got six wins.

Assume a split (at worst) against San Diego State and Colorado State and you're up to 7 wins.

That leaves TCU, Navy, Notre Dame and Boise State. You just need to win one of those. Air Force Force is 5-point favorites at Navy and small home dogs against TCU.

The better number is 8 or even 8.5, IMO.

[HujoTDs]

(08-22-2011 04:36 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Just checked to verify my post, the over is -110 now on AFA o7.5.

Good call on the Air Force play. BTB's Air Force spreads spit out the following...

Air Force
South Dakota at Air Force -32 -32 100.0%
TCU -3.5 at Air Force* 3.5 38.9%
Tennessee State at Air Force -35.5 -35.5 100.0%
Air Force -5 at Navy* -5 63.5%
Air Force at Notre Dame* -11.5 11.5 18.8%
San Diego State at Air Force* -4.5 -4.5 54.1%
Air Force at Boise State* -20 20 10.0%
Air Force -18.5 at New Mexico -18.5 94.6%
Army at Air Force -17.5 -17.5 92.1%
Wyoming at Air Force -16.5 -16.5 90.0%
UNLV at Air Force -20.5 -20.5 92.1%
Air Force -2.5 at Colorado State -2.5 52.7%
Season Wins Total 8.1

---

Where are you guys seeing that Air Force 7.5 number?