Win totals

[The Cosmic Kid]

What win totals do you guys like this year?

I like:
K-State over 5.5
Texas under 8
Miami under whatever they'll give me
Nebraska under 10
...and KU under 3.5

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-17-2011 11:05 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  KU under 3.5

TAKE IT BACK!

[The Cosmic Kid]

(08-17-2011 11:11 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-17-2011 11:05 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  KU under 3.5

TAKE IT BACK!

I doubt KU will be favored in any Big 12 game this year. They won't be Georgia Tech. They'll struggle to make it past NIU.

[wazzufan]

ok i will give wazzu a shot, even though i dont think there is a win total for them that's out there.

guaranteed losses will come against stanford, oregon, arizona state, utah and probably washington on a neutral field. so already, we are down to 7 wins at most.

guaranteed wins will come against idaho state, unlv and...omg...is that it?

i think wazzu can split the two road games at colorado and ucla and in all likelihood they'll lose against san diego state (road), cal (road) and against oregon state, who will be on revenge from last year's spanking.

i see a 3-9 season.

[ChiefZilla]

I see the mizzou o/u is set at 7.5, and if that's the case I like the over. Pinkel hasn't won fewer than 8 games since 2005.

I know, I know ... tougher schedule and a new QB, but i see six pretty easy wins on the schedule meaning mizzou would have to win two of the three "toss up" games vs. Oklahoma St, Texas and at Baylor. I think that's more likely than not.

---

(08-17-2011 11:24 PM)wazzufan Wrote:  i see a 3-9 season.

Three wins would be a HUGE season for wulff! Haha

[HujoTDs]

I've taken BTB's predicted spreads for every college football game this year and plugged them in to determine on average how many total wins a team with those particular 12 spreads would expect to win.

For instance since 2003 teams that are pick 'em are good for 0.5 wins, teams that are -3 are good for 0.61 wins (61%), teams that are -7 are good for 0.68 wins (67.8%), teams that are -14.5 are good for 0.84 wins (83.7%), and so on.

I've predicted how many wins the top teams in the Big 12 will win using this methodology. If the total wins at the end of the day differ from the posted total that means either 1. One or more of the spreads BTB predicted are off or 2. There is value in the season win total posted. I'm interested to hear the opinions on which numbers are off.

If there are particular teams you would like to see let me know.

Oklahoma
Tulsa at Oklahoma* -20.5 92.1%
Oklahoma -2 at Florida State* 51.0%
Missouri at Oklahoma* -15 86.3%
Ball State at Oklahoma -37 80.0%
Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas* 70.9%
Oklahoma -24.5 at Kansas 94.6%
Texas Tech at Oklahoma -16.5 90.0%
Oklahoma -14 at Kansas State 78.6%
Texas A&M at Oklahoma* -9.5 72.1%
Oklahoma -13 at Baylor 81.2%
Iowa State at Oklahoma -28 100.0%
Oklahoma -3.5 at Oklahoma State 61.1%
Season Wins Total 9.6
BetOnline Over 10 -125
BetOnline Under 10 -105

Texas A&M
SMU at Texas A&M* -15 86.3%
Idaho at Texas A&M -27.5 97.8%
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M* -4 60.0%
Texas A&M -2 vs. Arkansas* 51.0%
Texas A&M -3.5 at Texas Tech 61.1%
Baylor at Texas A&M -11.5 81.3%
Texas A&M -17 at Iowa State 91.7%
Missouri at Texas A&M* -7.5 74.8%
Texas A&M at Oklahoma* -9.5 27.9%
Texas A&M -7.5 at Kansas State 74.8%
Kansas at Texas A&M -22 96.8%
Texas at Texas A&M* -5.5 64.8%
Season Wins Total 8.7
BetOnline Over 8.5 -160
BetOnline Under 8.5 +130

Oklahoma State
Louisiana at Oklahoma State -36.5 100.0%
Arizona at Oklahoma State -10 76.4%
Oklahoma State -7.5 at Tulsa* 74.8%
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M* -4 40.0%
Kansas at Oklahoma State -20.5 92.1%
Oklahoma State at Texas* -1 47.9%
Oklahoma State at Missouri* -2 49.0%
Baylor at Oklahoma State -10.5 69.9%
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -12 83.5%
Oklahoma State -2 at Texas Tech 51.0%
Oklahoma State -16 at Iowa State 82.8%
Oklahoma -3.5 at Oklahoma State 38.9%
Season Wins Total 8.1
BetOnline Over 8.5 -125
BetOnline Under 8.5 -105

Texas
Rice at Texas -26.5 95.5%
BYU at Texas* -6.5 70.2%
Texas -5 at UCLA 63.5%
Texas -13.5 at Iowa State 81.8%
Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas* 29.1%
Oklahoma State at Texas* -1 52.1%
Kansas at Texas -20 90.0%
Texas Tech at Texas -4.5 54.1%
Texas at Missouri* -1 47.9%
Kansas State at Texas -10.5 69.9%
Texas at Texas A&M* -5.5 35.2%
Texas -5 at Baylor 63.5%
Season Wins Total 7.5
BetOnline Over 8 -130
BetOnline Under 8 +100

Missouri
Miami (OH) at Missouri* -16 82.8%
Missouri at Arizona State* -5.5 35.2%
Western Illinois at Missouri -38 100.0%
Missouri at Oklahoma* -15 13.8%
Missouri -3.5 at Kansas State 61.1%
Iowa State at Missouri -14.5 83.7%
Oklahoma State at Missouri* -2 51.0%
Missouri at Texas A&M* -7.5 25.2%
Missouri -2 at Baylor 51.0%
Texas at Missouri* -1 52.1%
Texas Tech at Missouri -3.5 61.1%
Missouri -17.5 vs. Kansas 92.1%
Season Wins Total 7.1
BetOnline Over 7.5 -150
BetOnline Under 7.5 +120

[Beyond the Bets]

Interesting stuff. It's certainly a pretty accurate measure of the totals. I wouldn't say any of them look "off" to me, but based on your numbers — and based on my own thoughts — I do think there's some value on the under 8 for Texas, especially at plus money.

Missouri might seem a bit low, but again, that's a team that can go either way in my book.

I'd like to see Kansas State, and I'm sure the OP would, too.

[HujoTDs]

Missouri at Oklahoma* -15 seems pretty high to me. Make that -11 and that's an extra 0.2 wins right there alone.

Kansas State
Eastern Kentucky at Kansas State -26 92.3%
Kent State at Kansas State -16.5 90.0%
Kansas State at Miami (FL) -7 32.2%
Baylor at Kansas State (pick) 50.0%
Missouri -3.5 at Kansas State 38.9%
Kansas State at Texas Tech -6.5 29.8%
Kansas State -6 at Kansas 71.1%
Oklahoma -14 at Kansas State 21.4%
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -12 16.5%
Texas A&M -7.5 at Kansas State 25.2%
Kansas State at Texas -10.5 30.1%
Iowa State at Kansas State -9.5 72.1%
Season Wins Total 5.7

Kansas
McNeese State at Kansas-14.5 83.7%
Northern Illinois at Kansas -1.5 50.9%
Kansas at Georgia Tech -9 18.6%
Texas Tech -8.5 at Kansas 28.8%
Kansas at Oklahoma State -20.5 7.9%
Oklahoma -24.5 at Kansas 5.4%
Kansas State -6 at Kansas 28.9%
Kansas at Texas -20 10.0%
Kansas at Iowa State -3.5 38.9%
Baylor -7 at Kansas 32.2%
Kansas at Texas A&M -22 3.2%
Missouri -17.5 vs. Kansas 7.9%
Season Wins Total 3.2

Nebraska
Chattanooga at Nebraska -30.5 100.0%
Fresno State at Nebraska -22 96.8%
Washington at Nebraska -22.5 92.5%
Nebraska -24.5 at Wyoming 94.6%
Nebraska at Wisconsin* -2.5 47.3%
Ohio State at Nebraska -10 76.4%
Nebraska -16.5 at Minnesota 90.0%
Michigan State at Nebraska* -8 70.9%
Northwestern at Nebraska* -12.5 74.7%
Nebraska -2.5 at Penn State* 52.7%
Nebraska -5 at Michigan* 63.5%
Iowa at Nebraska -12 83.5%
Season Wins Total 9.4
*There are a handful of numbers here that stick out to me although they may end up being a wash. Some may have come from bookmakers even. Wyoming & Ohio State seem high. Seems Nebraska would need to give more points against Wisconsin, Penn State, and especially Michigan.

Arizona
Northern Arizona at Arizona -26.5 95.5%
Arizona at Oklahoma State -10 23.6%
Stanford -7 at Arizona 7 32.2%
Oregon -11 at Arizona 11 30.9%
Arizona at USC -10.5 10.5 30.1%
Arizona at Oregon State -6.5 29.8%
UCLA at Arizona -4.5 54.1%
Arizona at Washington -4.5 45.9%
Utah at Arizona -1 52.1%
Arizona -2.5 at Colorado 52.7%
Arizona at Arizona State -9 18.6%
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arizona -20.5 92.1%
Season Wins Total 5.6

[Beyond the Bets]

Yeah, the Nebraska lines you mentioned are from bookmakers, or at least within a half point of what they've released on GOY lines. The Hilton opened Nebraska at -12 over Ohio State, which qualified as a bit of a surprise to me. I think it's closer to -10 now offshore.

Interesting on K-State and Arizona, which, as you probably know, are my top two totals of the year. I got K-State at over 5 and Arizona at under 6.5, and both of those numbers have either moved or have been juiced quite a bit.

[HujoTDs]

As far as going under on Texas 8 wins. I think its too close to call. Getting a number +100 isn't really "plus money". Plus, I think a couple of those numbers could move including being -7 vs Tech, -7 at Baylor, and -16.5 at Iowa State. To be fair I think the number against A&M could be closer to @ A&M -6/-6.5.

[Beyond the Bets]

Yeah, the number could very well close at 6/6.5. It's still at 5.5 across the board on GOY lines for now, though.

I'm having a tough time seeing Texas win 9, but its season hinges on those two non-con games against BYU and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if the Horns fall at home to BYU, but I do think they'll be out for blood against UCLA after last year's disaster.

Texas has a good chance to split against Oklahoma State and Mizzou. They'll be lucky to split both Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Either way, it's a play on the 'under' or stay away for me, as I wouldn't consider the 'over' 8. Too much uncertainty, new D coordinator, etc.

I don't see a three-win improvement out of this year's squad.

[The Cosmic Kid]

Thanks for the info, HujosTD. Pretty cool stuff.

(08-18-2011 01:19 PM)HujoTDs Wrote:  Kansas State
Eastern Kentucky at Kansas State -26 92.3%
Kent State at Kansas State -16.5 90.0%
Kansas State at Miami (FL) -7 32.2%
Baylor at Kansas State (pick) 50.0%
Missouri -3.5 at Kansas State 38.9%
Kansas State at Texas Tech -6.5 29.8%
Kansas State -6 at Kansas 71.1%
Oklahoma -14 at Kansas State 21.4%
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -12 16.5%
Texas A&M -7.5 at Kansas State 25.2%
Kansas State at Texas -10.5 30.1%
Iowa State at Kansas State -9.5 72.1%
Season Wins Total 5.7

Even with these spreads, which I feel will get move toward K-State as the season goes on because Synder's teams "get a little better every day," I feel confident in K-State beating 5.5. The .2 advantage is OK, but once you factor in the Synder factor, I feel the advantage is even greater.

K-State is listed as an underdog in seven of the 12 games, but Synder is 18-10 ATS as an underdog since 2000.

Also, the Miami game is now sort of a wild card, so we'll see how that goes.

Either way. K-State over 5.5 =
EASY MONEY!

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-19-2011 10:59 AM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  Even with these spreads, which I feel will get move toward K-State as the season goes on because Synder's teams "get a little better every day," I feel confident in K-State beating 5.5. The .2 advantage is OK, but once you factor in the Synder factor, I feel the advantage is even greater.

SMH!

The edge isn't as great as you think. The Cats are listed at 5.5 (over -130). The real value was at 5, which was a bogus number. At 5.5, I think it might be best to stay away entirely.

[The Cosmic Kid]

(08-19-2011 11:05 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-19-2011 10:59 AM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  Even with these spreads, which I feel will get move toward K-State as the season goes on because Synder's teams "get a little better every day," I feel confident in K-State beating 5.5. The .2 advantage is OK, but once you factor in the Synder factor, I feel the advantage is even greater.

SMH!

The edge isn't as great as you think. The Cats are listed at 5.5 (over -130). The real value was at 5, which was a bogus number. At 5.5, I think it might be best to stay away entirely.

You're right. K-State over 5 had tons of value. There is no way Snyder wins only four games this year so it's a "can't lose." The current number doesn't have great value, but if I were to take a side, it'd still be with the over. Honestly, I just wanted an excuse to use...
...this guy ().

[Beyond the Bets]

The Arizona Wildcats under 6.5 is currently -240.

At -110/-110, that was one of my top two college football totals.

[HujoTDs]

Had some time this evening so ran the look ups on some more teams that had juice adjusted heavily one way. Looks like there may be some value on Notre Dame Under 8.5 according to the BTB predicted spreads.

Penn State
Indiana State at Penn State -37 80.0%
Alabama -7.5 at Penn State* 25.2%
Penn State -14.5 at Temple 83.7%
Eastern Michigan at Penn State -28.5 93.1%
Penn State -10 at Indiana 76.4%
Iowa at Penn State -3 57.2%
Purdue at Penn State -13 81.2%
Penn State -3 at Northwestern* 57.2%
Illinois at Penn State -8.5 71.3%
Nebraska -2.5 at Penn State* 47.3%
Penn State at Ohio State -3.5 38.9%
Penn State at Wisconsin -9 18.6%
Season Wins Total 7.3
BetOnline 7.5

Virginia Tech
Appalachian State at Virginia Tech -25 89.2%
Virginia Tech -15.5 at East Carolina 85.1%
Arkansas State at Virginia Tech -29 92.9%
Virginia Tech -24 at Marshall 96.4%
Clemson at Virginia Tech -10.5 69.9%
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech* -6 71.1%
Virginia Tech -18.5 at Wake Forest 94.6%
Boston College at Virginia Tech -14 78.6%
Virginia Tech -17.5 at Duke 92.1%
Virginia Tech -8 at Georgia Tech 70.9%
North Carolina at Virginia Tech -9 81.4%
Virginia Tech -11.5 at Virginia 81.3%
Season Wins Total 10.0
BetOnline 10

West Virginia
Marshall at West Virginia -20 90.0%
Norfolk State at West Virginia -38.5 100.0%
West Virginia -5 at Maryland* 63.5%
LSU -3 at West Virginia* 42.8%
Bowling Green at West Virginia -25.5 100.0%
Connecticut at West Virginia* -12.5 74.7%
West Virginia -7.5 at Syracuse 74.8%
West Virginia -9.5 at Rutgers 72.1%
Louisville at West Virginia -13.5 81.8%
West Virginia -6 at Cincinnati 71.1%
Pittsburgh at West Virginia* -6.5 70.2%
West Virginia -3.5 at South Florida 61.1%
Season Wins Total 9.0
BetOnline 9.5 (Under -170)

Boise State
Boise State -3 at Georgia* 57.2%
Boise State -21.5 at Toledo 96.4%
Tulsa at Boise State* -22.5 92.5%
Nevada at Boise State -18.5 94.6%
Boise State -16 at Fresno State 82.8%
Boise State -25.5 at Colorado State 100.0%
Air Force at Boise State* -20 90.0%
Boise State -30.5 at UNLV 100.0%
TCU at Boise State* -14.5 83.7%
Boise State -13 at San Diego State* 81.2%
Wyoming at Boise State -35.5 100.0%
New Mexico at Boise State -42.5 100.0%
Season Wins Total 10.8
BetOnline 10.5 (Over -150)

Arizona State
UC Davis at Arizona State -31 100.0%
Missouri at Arizona State* -5.5 64.8%
Arizona State -3 at Illinois 57.2%
USC at Arizona State* 2.5 47.3%
Oregon State at Arizona State -7 67.8%
Arizona State -1.5 at Utah* 50.9%
Arizona State at Oregon* -11 30.9%
Colorado at Arizona State -15 86.3%
Arizona State -5.5 at UCLA 64.8%
Arizona State -17.5 at Washington State 92.1%
Arizona at Arizona State -9 81.4%
California at Arizona State -9 81.4%
Season Wins Total 8.2
BetOnline 8 (Over -130)

Auburn
Utah State at Auburn -22 96.8%
Mississippi State -2 at Auburn* 49.0%
Auburn at Clemson* -7 32.2%
Florida Atlantic at Auburn -21.5 96.4%
Auburn at South Carolina* -10 23.6%
Auburn at Arkansas* -10 23.6%
Florida -2.5 at Auburn* 47.3%
Auburn at LSU* -13.5 18.2%
Ole Miss at Auburn -4.5 54.1%
Auburn at Georgia* -9.5 27.9%
Samford at Auburn -28 100.0%
Alabama -12 at Auburn 16.5%
Season Wins Total 5.9
BetOnline 6 (Under +125)

BYU
BYU -2.5 at Ole Miss 52.7%
BYU at Texas* -6.5 29.8%
Utah at BYU* -6 71.1%
UCF at BYU -10 76.4%
Utah State at BYU -17 91.7%
San Jose State at BYU -20.5 92.1%
BYU at Oregon State -1 47.9%
Idaho State at BYU -39.5 100.0%
BYU at TCU* -2.5 47.3%
Idaho at BYU -15.5 85.1%
New Mexico State at BYU -31.5 100.0%
BYU -4.5 at Hawaii 54.1%
Season Wins Total 8.5
BetOnline 8.5

Notre Dame
South Florida at Notre Dame -10.5 -10.5 69.9%
Notre Dame -3 at Michigan* -3 57.2%
Michigan State at Notre Dame* -7 -7 67.8%
Notre Dame -4.5 at Pittsburgh* -4.5 54.1%
Notre Dame -10 at Purdue -10 76.4%
Air Force at Notre Dame* -11.5 -11.5 81.3%
USC at Notre Dame* -4.5 -4.5 54.1%
Navy at Notre Dame -12.5 -12.5 74.7%
Notre Dame -21 at Wake Forest -21 93.7%
Maryland vs. Notre Dame* -10 -10 76.4%
Boston College at Notre Dame -11 -11 69.1%
Notre Dame at Stanford -5 5 36.5%
Season Wins Total 8.1
BetOnline 8.5 (Under +150)

USC
Minnesota at USC -20 90.0%
Utah at USC* -9 81.4%
Syracuse at USC -14.5 83.7%
USC at Arizona State* 2.5 47.3%
Arizona at USC -10.5 69.9%
USC -4 at California 60.0%
USC at Notre Dame* -4.5 45.9%
Stanford -1 at USC* 47.9%
USC -10 at Colorado 76.4%
Washington at USC -9 81.4%
USC at Oregon* -10 23.6%
UCLA at USC -9.5 - 72.1%
Season Wins Total 7.8
BetOnline 7.5 (Over -150)

[Beyond the Bets]

I couldn't pull the trigger on Notre Dame under.

[ChiefZilla]

I like your system, Hujo. Just a question ... have you ever thought about tweaking it to include not-so-specific numbers? For example, favorites of 1-3 points win X percentage of the time..

Seems like it might be useful for higher spreads, i.e. a favorite of 24-28 points wins a certain percentage, instead of narrowing it to exactly 25.5, or something like that.

Not sure if that makes sense. Just wondered if you had thought about it..

[HujoTDs]

(08-21-2011 10:47 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Seems like it might be useful for higher spreads, i.e. a favorite of 24-28 points wins a certain percentage, instead of narrowing it to exactly 25.5, or something like that.

Its a good point and something I have thought about at least for the bigger spreads. The very first time I posted a season total using this methodology under the Miami thread I posted the sample size for each number as well. I'm no statistician but once you start working with spreads over 14 points the sample sizes start to get too small which results in more variance. For these purposes I should probably just use 100% for all spreads greater than 26 since teams favored by 26 or more win over 98% of the time SU anyway.

That doesn't change many of the teams I've run numbers for. The only teams for which that adjustment would result in a change of more than 0.1 wins would be Oklahoma (9.6->9.8) and Penn State (7.3->7.6).

---

Just ran LSU out of curiosity. Looks like there is value on the under even before this past weekend's shenanigans.

Any suspensions with 3 near coin flip games in the first month all away from home would have quite a compounded effect.

LSU
Oregon -1 vs. LSU* 47.9%
Northwestern State at LSU -37.5 100.0%
LSU -4.5 at Mississippi State* 54.1%
LSU -3 at West Virginia* 57.2%
Kentucky at LSU -17 91.7%
Florida at LSU* -9 81.4%
LSU -8.5 at Tennessee* 71.3%
Auburn at LSU* -13.5 81.8%
LSU at Alabama* -6 28.9%
Western Kentucky at LSU -38.5 100.0%
LSU -14 at Ole Miss 78.6%
Arkansas at LSU* -6.5 70.2%
Season Wins Total 8.6
BetOnline 9.5 (Under 9½ -160)

[Beyond the Bets]

What are your top 3 win totals for 2011?