Will Kentucky win it all?

[ChiefZilla]

Just saw the post on the front page about the prop bet for Kentucky winning the national title.

Kentucky wins +225
Field wins -305

This, to me, seems like great value for the field. I love Kentucky's team, but too many upsets happen every year.

Curious though ... can anyone do the hypothetical math on whether it would be better to start playing the plus-money underdogs against Kentucky starting in about the Sweet 16? Is that even possible to estimate which would be the better play?

[mattrud]

The bet implies a probability of 75.31% that they WON'T win. As the clear-cut top team in the nation, I think this is a fair price.

If you think Kentucky is overrated, go for it. But I personally don't see value in this.

[ChiefZilla]

Yeah, to each his own I guess. I personally don't think there's ever much more than about a 15 or 16 percent chance that any one team wins the title. Just seems like too much can happen. VCU can beat Kansas. Butler can go to the championship as an 8-seed. UAB can beat top-seeded Kentucky. Northern Iowa can beat top-seeded Kansas. 5-seed Indiana can beat "unbeatable" Duke. It happens almost every year.