Wednesday MVC Hoops

[louiemdj]

Looks like there is 4 games on tap for the Valley tomorrow night. Most the lines are pretty tight, I'm going to do some more work tonight and tomorrow and do my best to break down some of the matchups.

Here are the games:

Drake -1.5 at SIU
WSU -2 at UNI
Creighton -1 at Missouri State
Indiana St at Illinois St -5
Bradley at Evansville -9

More thoughts to come later.

[MFMc]

First instincts:

Drake is playing well lately, while Southern Illinois could be approaching Bradley territory.

WSU is unbeaten on the road this season, and something like 12-1 their last 13 road games?

Creighton has the revenge factor on its side, plus the earlier loss to Missouri State, the Bears had two guys who were unconscious.

On the surface, the battle of the ISUs seems way too evenly matched for it to be -5 home team.

Evansville has a losing record overall and in the MVC, yet is giving up 9 at home. Bradley lost nine in a row before winning their last game against Northern Iowa. And Bradley is 5-2 ATS on the road this year.

[louiemdj]

Creighton -2 @ Missouri St.

There is no doubt that Missouri St can play with and beat anyone in the Valley on a good night. They showed that when they played out of their minds at Creighton the first conference game of the year. Even though Missouri State is very tough at JQH, it's going to be very difficult for them to beat Creighton 2x this year. This is a huge revenge game for Creighton, and they will have a much better game plan this time around and will be ready for MSU. I think the play here is Creighton -2. I will personally be staying away from this game because I hate betting against my alma mater and MSU could pull this off. They are very tough at home. If I didn't have bowling league tonight, I would be at this game.

Indiana St @ Illinois St -4.5

Indiana St's closest road conference loss was at a shitty SIU team by 6 points. They have been horrible on the road this year, and Illinois St has been pretty solid at home. Illinois St is coming off a tough 3 game losing streak (2 on the road and 1 at home to WSU), and they will be looking to right the ship against a Indiana St who is one of the bigger disappointments in the Valley this year. I could justify some kind of play on Illinois St here.

Wichita St -2.5 @ Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa is a tough team to figure out this year. They have played the upper tier teams in the Valley very close with a home win against Missouri St, and a 3 point road loss at Creighton, but they have also laid some eggs against teams they should beat easily. They just went to Bradley and got their asses kicked to allow Bradley's 1st conference win of the year. On the other hand Wichita St has been solid this year just as they normally are. Their only conference loss was on the road at Creighton. They are road tested and Northern Iowa has been hot and cold all year. I would take WSU here even though the best number has come and gone.

Drake @ SIU -2.5

Drake's only 3 losses this year in the Valley came @ Missouri St, @ Creighton, and at home against UNI. They have beat Illinois St on the road which is a quality win for this team. I don't think Drake has lived up to their potential yet this year, and they can sneak up on some teams. SIU has been pretty good at home against average opponets, but Drake is on the rise and I like them to cover tonight against SIU.

Bradley @ Evansville -9

Bradley is coming off their first conference win of the year so they pretty much blew their load. I would expect them to come back to earth and play a pretty bad game tonight on the road against Evansville. Evansville is coming off a pretty big win against Missouri State on the road so their confidence is very high right now. I would lean Evansville to cover here in a blowout win at home.

[MFMc]

I have no problem betting against my alma mater when it's called for, especially when they were overvalued and on a pretty bad ATS streak a little bit ago. Now it's swung back a bit, and I think WSU -2.5 is good.

I differ from you only in that I am betting the Creighton/Missouri State game, and I'm going to take Bradley and the points. They have made no sense this year, and this game calls out for them to not cover. An odd thing - Bradley hasn't won just one game at a time this year. Won three to open the year, and another two-pack of wins in December.

[SkyBlues42]

Normally I would think that a team getting a big win would be subject to a let down, but in Bradley's case, it could only boost their confidence.

(01-18-2012 02:30 PM)louiemdj Wrote:  Wichita St -2.5 @ Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa is a tough team to figure out this year. They have played the upper tier teams in the Valley very close with a home win against Missouri St, and a 3 point road loss at Creighton, but they have also laid some eggs against teams they should beat easily. They just went to Bradley and got their asses kicked to allow Bradley's 1st conference win of the year. On the other hand Wichita St has been solid this year just as they normally are. Their only conference loss was on the road at Creighton. They are road tested and Northern Iowa has been hot and cold all year. I would take WSU here even though the best number has come and gone.

Couldn't agree more with that statement. I just avoid their games.

[louiemdj]

(01-18-2012 02:58 PM)MFMc Wrote:  I differ from you only in that I am betting the Creighton/Missouri State game, and I'm going to take Bradley and the points. They have made no sense this year, and this game calls out for them to not cover. An odd thing - Bradley hasn't won just one game at a time this year. Won three to open the year, and another two-pack of wins in December.

What side are you taking? I would lean WSU, but I would like to think MSU can get the job done at home.

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(01-18-2012 03:04 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Normally I would think that a team getting a big win would be subject to a let down, but in Bradley's case, it could only boost their confidence.

I just think they had 1 bullet in the gun, and they already used it. Bradley is horrible. I took Evansville -9. We shall see. I'm not sure Bradley shouldn't be a DD dog to almost every Valley team on the road. It started at 10, but it's down to 9. Not letting that go against my read. I've been wrong before, and there is a small chance I may be wrong again.

[MFMc]

I'm taking Wichita State -2.5 (they've posted back to back ATS wins and they've shown that hostile territory means nothing to them).

I'm also taking Creighton -2. The MSU win in Omaha took a combination of an off night by most of Creighton and really on nights from Weems and Downing. (I love Weems, by the way. And that's tough for me to say as a Shocker.)

[louiemdj]

The Valley was the only thing I did right tonight.

[Docwatson]

(01-18-2012 11:01 PM)louiemdj Wrote:  

The Valley was the only thing I did right tonight.

Nice break down of the games, and doing something right is better than doing nothing right.

Good luck tomorrow Louie!

[ChiefZilla]

Just wanted to say that I enjoy/appreciate the insight in this thread. Keep up the good work, guys.

[louiemdj]

(01-19-2012 10:32 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Just wanted to say that I enjoy/appreciate the insight in this thread. Keep up the good work, guys.

If I have time, I will try and continue this.

[MFMc]

I was waving the white flag early on Bradley. Another 3-2 night in the Valley. Good work outta you, Louie!