Wednesday College Hoops

[jimmysingh9]

liked the discussion we started up yesterday, so lets try it again.

A couple games at first glance that I am looking at playing are.


Dayton -4.5. like the flyers at home when they are playing a team like the caliber of the Dukes. would lay the 4.5. have to check on the injury status of the dayton players first.

may play Auburn -2.5. played Auburn one time this year and they didnt dissapoint. They have some scoring options and a couple guys can get hot at home. Georgia is nothing to ride home about and they cant just look really bad on the road. not sure if I can trust Auburn a 2nd time.

DePaul -2. DePaul is a team I like. St John's coming off their Duke game and going to play DePaul is probably not highlighted. DePaul has two big time scorers and their pressue could give St John's problems. St John's is a young team and might turn the ball over seeing that pressure.

maybe Iowa +1. Minnesota has been playing good ball lately, but this is one of those games where Iowa wins every year and a game where Tubby Smith team's find themselves scratching their heads about.



I am sure people will want to play So Miss at home only -2 to Memphis. I can see this being a trendy pick on the board or on twitter.

Drexel is playing tomorrow and is only -4 on the road. It's been documented how hot they are right now.

I am on total sell of Georgetown right now. UConn's bigs and length will give them major problems and may play UConn

[TheHandicaper]

Agree with DePaul, won't play it though.
Already took Southern Miss at -2.
Completly looking to fade Georgetown as well, but will wait to see how that line moves. I actually belive I can get a extra half or full point.

Disagree on Minnesota, actually looking the other way. Still looking at it though.

Here are others I want to throw out there:
Xavier -6
Delaware +5

[Jaeger62]

I like Richmond -2 at home. They've played well at home this year and St Joseph's is 2-7 on the road.

[jimmysingh9]

(02-01-2012 06:05 AM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  I like Richmond -2 at home. They've played well at home this year and St Joseph's is 2-7 on the road.

Yes I was looking at this one as well. St Joseph's scares me at times because this team can score and they are very streaky. I try to stay away from their games.

St Joe's does lose to teams like Penn on the road and Richmond has some good wins at home. The side would be Richmond for me or nothing.

[Kballa41]

Anyone look into UMASS -3.5 @ Rhode Island.

Looks like the line got pushed down by Rhode Island going into Dayton and winning last wekeend. I'm jumping on UMASS. They are just a better team and 3.5 shouldn't be tough to cover. Rhode island is still a 4 win team, they are also 1-8 ATS at home.

Also looking at Under 142.5 Min @ Iowa. Iowa scores a lot and gives up a lot, but this is still a high Over/Under for the Big 10.

[LineProjector]

Playing SEC teams at home this year has been pretty good to me. It doesn't seem like teams outside of Kentucky are very consistent on the road in the SEC. Auburn line is down to -1.5, which I think is pretty good value. Neither team is very good, but Georgia struggles on the road.

The other game I'm looking at is Oklahoma. The line released at +18. I know betting against Kansas at Phog is like playing with fire, but I think KS will have Mizzou on their mind tonight.

[jimmysingh9]

Two Play I am on for sure now are

DePaul -2
Auburn -1
Providence - 1

The simple reasoning is this. These matchups are between equal teams IMO. I wouldn't rate one team in any of these matchups much higher than the other. In these type of matchups, I will take the home team when the line in under 3-4 points and the situation is correct.

None of the teams listed are coming off big victories and neither of these teams have huge games on the weekend.

All of these teams have big time scorers to an extent that tend to go off more at home and be streaky. Auburn(Sullivan, Gabriel), Providence(Batts, Henton, Council) and Depaul(Melvin,Young)

The spreads arent doing anything really funny here. moves around .5 but staying steady. I dont see any of these teams being really public and getting heavy action.

Stats against these plays are Rutgers being really really good ATS this year in the Big East and the road team is 11-3 ATS in the Georgia/Auburn game.

I feel confident that I can go 2-1 hopefully in these games. I don't really like one over the other. I would say Providence is maybe the least confident, then Auburn and DePaul.

Not huge plays by any means.

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I am also looking at Texas A&M +7 at home if Harris plays and hopefully Middleton. I think Baylor isnt looking at this game as a big one but they could find themselves in a dog fight they weren't expecting.

[Kballa41]

I can't gauge that St. Johns team. They have a ton of talent albeit freshman talent. They look so good at times ie vs Duke in the 2nd half. I couldn’t make a play in this game but I would lean towards SJU on the fact I think they are the more talented team. But could see it going either way.

I think my 3 plays for tonight are: Under 142.5 Min @ Iowa, Umass -3.5 @ Rhode Island and Drexel -4 @ NE.
(Oakland -3 @ INDPU is a maybe play)

[ChiefZilla]

(02-01-2012 12:27 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I am also looking at Texas A&M +7 at home if Harris plays and hopefully Middleton. I think Baylor isnt looking at this game as a big one but they could find themselves in a dog fight they weren't expecting.

Just FYI, Jimmy, it sounds like Middleton is OUT for tonight's game. Nothing for sure, but it'd be a big surprise if he suits up. Harris is more up in the air with that foot injury he suffered last week at Kansas.

Even without Middleton, I'm still keeping an eye on A&M. They play 100x better at home than on the road, they're undervalued right now and Baylor is definitely overvalued, IMO.

[jimmysingh9]

I'm a little scared to pull the trigger without harris. I know middleton has basically been out for the whole season so they have adjusted.

I do agree this will be a tight hard fought game and scott drew doesn't know how to break down a good defense or adjust

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(02-01-2012 11:16 AM)Kballa41 Wrote:  Anyone look into UMASS -3.5 @ Rhode Island.

Looks like the line got pushed down by Rhode Island going into Dayton and winning last wekeend. I'm jumping on UMASS. They are just a better team and 3.5 shouldn't be tough to cover. Rhode island is still a 4 win team, they are also 1-8 ATS at home.

Also looking at Under 142.5 Min @ Iowa. Iowa scores a lot and gives up a lot, but this is still a high Over/Under for the Big 10.

Kballa, at first glance UMass should easily cover that spread, but those are the types of games I try to stay away. In the past, it was 50/50 that I would get burned by betting that easy game.

you look at the records and see first place UMass at 18-5 only -3.5 over a 4 win Rhode Island team and you would think damn this is easy.

Reminds me of Kent State game yesterday where Kent St went on the cover but could have went either way towards the end.

UMass could be a really easy win and I like this team, but I try to stay away from those types of lines.

[WildWest]

I've never done this before, but we'll give it a shot.

San Diego State 18-1 (4-1) -11 vs Boise State 10-10 (0-5)

A matchup of 1st vs last in the MWC tonight in San Diego. SDSU is coming off just its 3rd loss of the season, and hasn't lost back to back games since January of 2010, a span of 76 games. Boise St, in its 1st year in the MWC is 0-5 so far.

San Diego State
Coming off an rough 17 point loss at Colorado State on Saturday.
The Aztecs have 8 straight home wins since their early season loss to Creighton.
In 5 conference games so far, they are holding teams to 37.5 percent shooting.
Chase Tapley leads the MWC in scoring at 16.1 ppg.
Currently 21st in the RPI
They are 11-7 against the spread including 4-1 in league play.

Boise State
They are 0-7 in road games.
Have used 11 different starting lineups in their 20 games.
Their best win is over a then pretty good Indiana State team in non conference.
Coming off a good performance where they lost 77-72 to UNLV in Boise.
In 5 of their 7 road games they have lost by double digits.
RPI of 198
8-11 agains the spread, including 2-3 in conference.

[ChiefZilla]

(02-01-2012 01:39 PM)WildWest Wrote:  I've never done this before, but we'll give it a shot.

San Diego State 18-1 (4-1) -11 vs Boise State 10-10 (0-5)

A matchup of 1st vs last in the MWC tonight in San Diego. SDSU is coming off just its 3rd loss of the season, and hasn't lost back to back games since January of 2010, a span of 76 games. Boise St, in its 1st year in the MWC is 0-5 so far.

San Diego State
Coming off an rough 17 point loss at Colorado State on Saturday.
The Aztecs have 8 straight home wins since their early season loss to Creighton.
In 5 conference games so far, they are holding teams to 37.5 percent shooting.
Chase Tapley leads the MWC in scoring at 16.1 ppg.
Currently 21st in the RPI
They are 11-7 against the spread including 4-1 in league play.

Boise State
They are 0-7 in road games.
Have used 11 different starting lineups in their 20 games.
Their best win is over a then pretty good Indiana State team in non conference.
Coming off a good performance where they lost 77-72 to UNLV in Boise.
In 5 of their 7 road games they have lost by double digits.
RPI of 198
8-11 agains the spread, including 2-3 in conference.

Spread is SDSU -11. Based on this writeup I thought it'd be at least a couple higher, to be honest.

[jimmysingh9]

(02-01-2012 01:39 PM)WildWest Wrote:  I've never done this before, but we'll give it a shot.

San Diego State 18-1 (4-1) -11 vs Boise State 10-10 (0-5)

A matchup of 1st vs last in the MWC tonight in San Diego. SDSU is coming off just its 3rd loss of the season, and hasn't lost back to back games since January of 2010, a span of 76 games. Boise St, in its 1st year in the MWC is 0-5 so far.

San Diego State
Coming off an rough 17 point loss at Colorado State on Saturday.
The Aztecs have 8 straight home wins since their early season loss to Creighton.
In 5 conference games so far, they are holding teams to 37.5 percent shooting.
Chase Tapley leads the MWC in scoring at 16.1 ppg.
Currently 21st in the RPI
They are 11-7 against the spread including 4-1 in league play.

Boise State
They are 0-7 in road games.
Have used 11 different starting lineups in their 20 games.
Their best win is over a then pretty good Indiana State team in non conference.
Coming off a good performance where they lost 77-72 to UNLV in Boise.
In 5 of their 7 road games they have lost by double digits.
RPI of 198
8-11 agains the spread, including 2-3 in conference.

good stuff and looks like a good situation for a San Diego St blowout. contribute some more with that stuff.

[Beyond the Bets]

Wild West is the man.

[atk825]

My take on the SD St./Boise St. game is that Boise was getting 9 against LB St. and didn't cover and they were in much better form at the beginning of the season. Yes SD St. lost by a lot but it was at the end of a very long week that took a 20 hour trip to get out to Wyoming. And again, Boise for me has been fade material on the road pretty much every chance I have gotten.

[Kballa41]

(02-01-2012 12:58 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I'm a little scared to pull the trigger without harris. I know middleton has basically been out for the whole season so they have adjusted.

I do agree this will be a tight hard fought game and scott drew doesn't know how to break down a good defense or adjust

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(02-01-2012 11:16 AM)Kballa41 Wrote:  Anyone look into UMASS -3.5 @ Rhode Island.

Looks like the line got pushed down by Rhode Island going into Dayton and winning last wekeend. I'm jumping on UMASS. They are just a better team and 3.5 shouldn't be tough to cover. Rhode island is still a 4 win team, they are also 1-8 ATS at home.

Also looking at Under 142.5 Min @ Iowa. Iowa scores a lot and gives up a lot, but this is still a high Over/Under for the Big 10.

Kballa, at first glance UMass should easily cover that spread, but those are the types of games I try to stay away. In the past, it was 50/50 that I would get burned by betting that easy game.

you look at the records and see first place UMass at 18-5 only -3.5 over a 4 win Rhode Island team and you would think damn this is easy.

Reminds me of Kent State game yesterday where Kent St went on the cover but could have went either way towards the end.

UMass could be a really easy win and I like this team, but I try to stay away from those types of lines.

I 100% get what you are saying and have been burned in the past by these so called "easy games". I just think the line is that low due to the Dayton W for RI. I could be wrong, interested to see the outcome. Thanks for the insight.

[SkyBlues42]

(02-01-2012 12:58 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Kballa, at first glance UMass should easily cover that spread, but those are the types of games I try to stay away. In the past, it was 50/50 that I would get burned by betting that easy game.

I actually used a similar approach last night. Except, I didn't stay away, I bet the opposite of the side that looked almost too good.

I took Wisconsin/Penn State Under 25 points (1st 10 min). They combined for like eight points in the first minute (or min/half), but it still ended up covering, and by a wide margin.

The Rhode Island/UMass game is tough. The Rams have been playing surprisingly well in conference play, especially as of late. Obviously they just beat Dayton, but they also took the Bonnies into overtime in their last home game.

Might be best to stay away.

[Kballa41]

(02-01-2012 03:14 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(02-01-2012 12:58 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Kballa, at first glance UMass should easily cover that spread, but those are the types of games I try to stay away. In the past, it was 50/50 that I would get burned by betting that easy game.

I actually used a similar approach last night. Except, I didn't stay away, I bet the opposite of the side that looked almost too good.

I took Wisconsin/Penn State Under 25 points (1st 10 min). They combined for like eight points in the first minute (or min/half), but it still ended up covering, and by a wide margin.

The Rhode Island/UMass game is tough. The Rams have been playing surprisingly well in conference play, especially as of late. Obviously they just beat Dayton, but they also took the Bonnies into overtime in their last home game.

Might be best to stay away.

I'm already locked in ( I was worried the line would go up, but it has stayed steady at 3.5 since dropping from 4). Hope my logic is right. Will have to wait and see

SkyBlues, you have 5 plays left in the NBA contest right? 2 days in a row now I didn’t like any of the spreads. Hope tomorrow is different.

[SkyBlues42]

(02-01-2012 03:29 PM)Kballa41 Wrote:  SkyBlues, you have 5 plays left in the NBA contest right? 2 days in a row now I didn’t like any of the spreads. Hope tomorrow is different.

Yeah, I forced just about all four of those plays yesterday, and it backfired.

[jimmysingh9]

Another game I just bet on was Missouri State +5. This is a battle between 2 of the top 3 teams in the Missouri Valley. I have to take the points here. Missouri St has already shown it can beat the best teams in the MVC with a win vs Creighton. While I believe Wichita St is the best team in the MVC, I do not think they should be favoured as high as 5 points here.

I could look to buy out at halftime, but I like Missouri St to even win this one here so I took the points for sure.

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I also bit on San Diego St -11 over Boise St for the points above. I actually like San Diego St to win this one close to 20 points.