Wednesday College Hoops

[havok48]

(02-15-2012 04:26 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  SDSU may be overrated as the #13 team in the country, but Vegas isn't seeing them that way.

Vegas did release it at SDSU -1 until the market moved it to +1 though; so there is still some overrating going on.

[arzoman]

Hey gentlemen.

Right off the bat I like the Warriors at -5. I'm a Bay Area guy and a big dubs fan. That being said, I do bet against my fave teams, so I don't think I'm being biased here. Blazers leading scorer is out tonight (went out yesterday with an injury). Overnight line was -3 and has since been bet up. A couple of other things to keep in mind....

Blazers have lost 13 of 14 in Oakland.
Blazers will be sleepwalking through this one, as they're playing second of back to back, coming off a baaad loss last night at home vs. Washington (wish I had been on THAT moneyline!)
W's won three straight for the first time all year and want very badly to keep it going.
Out of the W's 14 losses, they've only been out of one game (Philly). Everything else has been very competitive.
W's are really coming together offensively now that Steph Curry is healthy, as they lead the league in 3 point shooting and field goal percentage and are the fourth highest scoring team in the league. Their biggest deficiency is defense, and really lies in them having no true center/big man. However, with their starting C Beidrens playing so awful, more playing time is being given to Epke Udoh (second year center) and he's a big reason for their recent surge (as well as Curry).

Bottom line for me here...this really is a very, very big game for the Warriors, it's not your typical mid-season NBA game. They're desperate to get to .500 and from 8-14 and looking awful with only having beaten one Western Conference team, they're now 11-14, having beaten Denver on the road, Houston at home, and Phoenix at home. Sky high confidence for them. I see a lot of betting value on the Warriors going forward.
I know this is a college hoops board, but I had to chime in on this one.

Now for my college hoops tonight...
Still kicking myself for not taking TCU outright last night. Even though I won with them with the points, I still feel like I had a losing night.
I REALLY like Northwestern +8.5 at Indiana tonight. Again, like last night, this might even be a solid moneyline play at +340. I feel Indiana is over-rated and I think the public loves to bet them. I've watched a bunch of their games and I don't see a cohesive unit. I see a couple talented guys, but also young and inexperienced. How they beat Kentucky a couple months back is a mystery to me, but I think that game alone is why they're still ranked. They're a streaky team, having gone 4-5 in their last nine games. (L, L, L, W, L, W, L, W, W). On the flip side Northwestern has gone 4-6 in their last ten...(L, L,W, L, L, L, W, W, W, L). They lost by 1 at home to Illinois, lost by 2 AT Michigan in OT, came right back and beat #7 Michigan State at home, then lost two in a row on the road at Wisconsin and Minnesota, came back home and lost by 2 to Purdue, then won three straight including AT Illinois and blowing out a good Iowa team at home, then three days ago lost by 10 on the road vs. a good Purdue team. They could very easily be 7-3 in their last ten, and most importantly, Northwestern has proven without a doubt, that they can play and BEAT anyone in the country. They win at home, they win on the road. Indiana doesn't look all that much better to me than NW, and in reality this should be more like a 3.5 point spread (in my opinion, and no, I'm not a NW fan).

Those are my two plays for tonight. I will probably do a small moneyline play on NW as well. I love the value there.

Good luck!! (hope I didn't bore ya)

[TheHandicaper]

(02-15-2012 03:58 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I am not understanding why Akron can cover 6 to Miami of Ohio at home?

Look ahead to Oral ROberts. 9-2-1 ATS record last 12, so I believe they're over priced (They were -2.5 last meeting, 7.5 is too much of an adjustment IMO). Miami OH might be pissed after they lost to them at home. I just don't see how this line has any value, regardless of where this one falls on.

[jimmysingh9]

I am not betting the line. well I am, I am teasing it, so Akron -6 might be better. I wasnt going to play Akron -10.

[TheHandicaper]

Still, if you think that Akron -10 is an inflated line, why would the price you're paying for Akron -6 show any value what so ever? Best of luck though, hope it comes through for you.

[louiemdj]

Adding a little Missouri State info, they have only lost by more than 11 points twice all year. One of those was in conference by 12.

I just added a little more on MSU +11.5 too.

[TheHandicaper]

New Mexico comes through big time

[mount187]

(02-15-2012 11:46 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  UNC doesnt know how to play defense. It's terrible defense, they get bailed out by the length of Henson and Zeller blocking shots at the baskets and now with losing their starting guard they also dont have anyone to shoot the 3 ball outside of Barnes. Marshall isnt exactly a good shooter, so UNC with their terrible perimeter defense ends up going 2 for 3 against teams alot of time which keeps the games close.

Your analysis here is only partially correct. UNC isn't playing terrible perimeter defense; they're playing a style of defense that says, "If you can beat us from deep, go for it." If you watch, they go under EVERY screen. If they got caught under a lot of screens, I'd say that's bad defense, but that's different than purposefully going under them. You can argue that it's a bad strategy, but it's not like they're players are bad at what they're being asked to do.

Even against Dook, you could see UNC sagging off and letting them shoot rather than drive, and for 38 minutes of the game, it paid off. I think the strategy works well at home (college kids struggle to shoot on the road), but if you've noticed, good shooting teams playing at home have made them pay (FSU, UK, UNLV). The only home loss was Dook, and I posted some notes about how that unraveled elsewhere; the "let 'em shoot" worked, until UNC only scored 2 points over the last 2:00. Except UNC not to cover on the road at NCST and Dook; both teams will shoot too good at home for the Heels to cover a number.

A few things to keep in mind for the upcoming tournaments: the Heels will get a bye in the first round of the ACC, so teams will have gotten a game under their belts shooting in a new arena before playing the Heels. If UNC draws a good shooting team, they won't cover. As for the NCAA's, expect UNC to cover the first game at a new venue, because the shooters won't have adjusted yet, but in the second game at each arena, expect the other team to shoot slightly better, and for UNC not to cover.

Back to the "let them shoot" strategy: the Heels have a short bench, so getting out and guarding out high, and giving up lanes to the hoop isn't something they can afford to do. They may get beat off the dribble now and again, but for the most part, they're sagging off and giving teams the chance to shoot. If Henson, Zeller, and McAdoo need to clean up shots they will, but I think Roy would prefer to keep people shooting jumpers rather than risking fouls on block attempts. If Marshall tries to play pressure D out high and picks up a few silly fouls, the Heels are super screwed.

As for their shooting, Bullock is shooting just under 38% from three, so they do have another scoring option from deep. What they can't afford is to have Hairston shoot 30% from the arch like he is. He's a freshman, but at some point he has to make shots. Marshall also has to be willing to take one or two dribbles in and shoot a jumper if they're going to sag off of his weak three-pointer.

tl;dr

- UNC plays defense that way for a reason, good or bad.
- The Heels do have one other outside scoring threat, but they're going to make their money in the paint.
- Fade UNC against good shooting teams playing at home (Dook coming up)
- Back the Heels to cover ATS the first game at a new venue in the NCAA, before teams can get used to the gym

[jimmysingh9]

Great stuff Mount,

sorry I write so many things, well actually almost everything at first thought lol. It always getting stuff in between my work, so don't have alot of time to word it the exact way I wanted.


you put this perfectly and I am not sure sure people could put this any better. To me, thats bad defense, going under EVERY screen. With where the 3 point line is and college players getting hot, I dont like that defense. They have shot blockers where they should be able to get beat by a dribble drive and have the bigs clean up for them. Barnes is long as well so it gives them 3 guys that can alter shots to some degree. I think Roy Williams should be able to create a different defensive approach that doesnt allow them to be vunerable to the open 3 ball.

It leaves for the all the points you state which is create easy opportunities for good shooting teams.

[mount187]

(02-16-2012 10:39 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  you put this perfectly and I am not sure sure people could put this any better. To me, thats bad defense, going under EVERY screen. With where the 3 point line is and college players getting hot, I dont like that defense. They have shot blockers where they should be able to get beat by a dribble drive and have the bigs clean up for them. Barnes is long as well so it gives them 3 guys that can alter shots to some degree. I think Roy Williams should be able to create a different defensive approach that doesnt allow them to be vunerable to the open 3 ball.

It leaves for the all the points you state which is create easy opportunities for good shooting teams.

Yeah, I'm not arguing that the strategy is great. I think it's pretty effective in college for now, but the more and more kids are getting up thousands of jumpers in the offseason at camps and AAU leagues, the three point line is going to become a more effective weapon. We're already seeing it to some extent now, but it's only going to get worse.

My point was more to defend the kids in the system. Maybe I'm being naive, and they're just poor defenders, but my feeling is that they could do more if Roy asked them to. You could argue that they should be able to play pressure defense w/o fouling, and that's a fair argument, but the risk / reward isn't there for me. If Barnes or Marshall pick up out high and take a few dumb fouls, things get a lot more dicey. If they sag off and let people shoot, then the other team is going to have to put up 85 points shooting jumpers to win, and that doesn't happen often (4 of 26 games on the season).

I'm adding another note to the thread you started that is significant.

[Wiseguy]

Grant was terrible for Miami, taking bad shots and missing and the turnovers down the stretch were baaaddd. Good call by Kballa on Unc not playing close games.

[jimmysingh9]

I agree with you about the foul situation and they are not deep. I just think maybe if they go zone, that it might help out more with guarding the 3 point shot. doesnt have to be a 2 -3, could be something different, but the zone could protect them as well.

Something different than what they are doing. It just scares me to think that if a team gets hot from 3 point land, that Carolina will not really do much to adjust. They did step out to Duke more after Duke got hot, but then you are already behind the ball and needing to make a comeback.