Way-too-early college football point spread projections

[Beyond the Bets]

Should be ready to release projections for 800+ college football games tomorrow, but for now, I'll start posting them here.

Below you'll find projected lines for every SEC game. Anything look off? Or way off? Feel free to leave comments or criticisms below. It goes without saying that we'll have some difference of opinion.

Projected standings if the favorite won every game:

EAST
Georgia 7-1
South Carolina 6-2
Florida 5-3
Tennessee 4-4
Missouri 2-6
Vanderbilt 2-6
Kentucky 0-8

WEST
LSU 8-0
Alabama 7-1
Mississippi State 5-3
Auburn 4-4
Arkansas 4-4
Texas A&M 2-6
Ole Miss 0-8

* * *

WEEK 1
South Carolina -10 at Vanderbilt

WEEK 2
Georgia -3 at Missouri
Florida -2.5 at Texas A&M
Auburn at Mississippi State -1.5

WEEK 3
Alabama -3.5 at Arkansas
Florida at Tennessee pk

WEEK 4
LSU -7.5 at Auburn
Kentucky at Florida -24
Vanderbilt at Georgia -17
Missouri at South Carolina -11

WEEK 5
Tennessee at Georgia -12
South Carolina -17 at Kentucky
Arkansas -2.5 at Texas A&M
Ole Miss at Alabama -30

WEEK 6
Arkansas at Auburn -1
LSU -4 at Florida
Mississippi State -11.5 at Kentucky
Vanderbilt at Missouri -10
Texas A&M -4 at Ole Miss
Georgia at South Carolina -4

WEEK 7
Kentucky at Arkansas -24.5
South Carolina at LSU -10
Alabama -13 at Missouri
Auburn -7 at Ole Miss
Florida -6 at Vanderbilt
Tennessee at Mississippi State -3.5

WEEK 8
South Carolina at Florida -2.5
Georgia -17.5 at Kentucky
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt
LSU -11.5 at Texas A&M
Alabama -12.5 at Tennessee

WEEK 9
Texas A&M at Auburn -9
Ole Miss at Arkansas -23
Florida vs. Georgia* -2
Kentucky at Missouri -17
Mississippi State at Alabama -18
Tennessee at South Carolina -13

WEEK 10
Missouri at Florida -9.5
Ole Miss at Georgia -24.5
Vanderbilt -4 at Kentucky
Alabama at LSU -3
Texas A&M at Mississippi State -6

WEEK 11
Georgia -1.5 at Auburn
Mississippi State at LSU -20
Vanderbilt -1.5 at Ole Miss
Texas A&M at Alabama -21
Arkansas at South Carolina -5
Missouri at Tennessee -6

WEEK 12
Ole Miss at LSU -31
Tennessee -1 at Vanderbilt
Arkansas -1 at Mississippi State

WEEK 13
LSU -3.5 at Arkansas
Mississippi State -7.5 at Ole Miss
Missouri at Texas A&M -2.5
Auburn at Alabama -16.5
Kentucky at Tennessee -20

[Beyond the Bets]

Also, just because I know people generally don't read everything: Don't freak out when you see Texas A&M with a "projected" 2-6 SEC record. Again, it's NOT a projection.

I'm merely pointing out what the standings would be if the favorite won every game. Texas A&M plays three coin flip games (dogs of 3 or less) and were awarded a loss in each of them. If they win two of three, that 2-6 record becomes a very respectable 4-4.

[@TracktheBet]

Think Bama will be -7ish at Hogs in Week 3.. similar spot 2 years ago, and Hogs had Mallet and Petrino and were getting 7.5-8

A&M was -2.5 LY on neutral field vs Hogs.. don't seem them as home pups

But for the most part this looks great..

Suggestion- break out each conference into its own threat/post.. will be much easier to hold discussions

[Beyond the Bets]

(06-05-2012 03:16 PM)@TracktheBet Wrote:  Think Bama will be -7ish at Hogs in Week 3.. similar spot 2 years ago, and Hogs had Mallet and Petrino and were getting 7.5-8

Believe it or not, these projections take into account all factors (), and the potential for this being an ESPN GameDay game has dropped the number a bit.

Outside of the Michigan opener, the Arkansas game (Sept. 15) will be ESPN's only chance to showcase the defending national champs until the Nov. 3 matchup with LSU. But yeah, you might be right. Maybe the number deserves to be a bit higher, but I'd be hesitant to make it any higher than 6.

[ChiefZilla]

Love this. Except for the Mizzou 2-6 part.

Get two relative "cupcakes" at home (if there is such a thing in the SEC) with Kentucky and Vanderbilt. But have to win 3 of 4 at S Car, at Fla, at Tenn, at A&M to really make any noise in the SEC East. Tough schedule, especially when +13 against Alabama at home is thrown in there as pretty much a guaranteed loss.

[The Cosmic Kid]

Wow. Kentucky really sucks, huh?

[zkr4]

BTB, Miss State's beat writer retweeted your SEC pointspread predictions, highlighting that you have the Bulldogs as 7.5 point favs against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Thought this was just too cool not to mention. Especially considering he won't usually tweet or mention pointspreads, even during the season. Thanks for the continuous content you provide for us.

[Beyond the Bets]

Believe it or not, BTB gets linked in frequently from SEC sites and even newspapers in SEC coverage areas. To this day, our favorite plug came from the big Arkansas paper, which referred to us as "oddsmakers" and printed our projected bowl spreads in the newspaper.

In any case, appreciate the kind words.

[Skating Tripods]

Auburn: Favored at home over Arkansas? But +1.5 at home to UGA?

Not much love from you for Arkansas. Dog at Auburn, just -1 at Mississippi State (though I think you're looking letdown spot with LSU on deck).

Little bit of love for Tennessee. I don't see them as a 6-pt favorite over Missouri. I'd say they're over a two TD dog to Alabama at home.

All in all, some really solid numbers. First thing I thought about was what way the line would move and if you're insuring your position. I think you did that well, going over key numbers for public favorites.

Like your position on Florida. Think they'll be undervalued because of how bad they've been the last couple seasons.

[Beyond the Bets]

You're right. I definitely don't like Arkansas. Am likely higher than most on Tennessee. Pretty "meh" on Florida, too.

Tennessee is an interesting team. 5Dimes released point spreads for a dozen random games this year, and the Vols are -6.5 vs. NC State on a neutral field. I have those two teams power rated closer than you might think.

For what it's worth, I think the Vols should be 4-point home favorites against Mizzou, but I have a feeling that the Tigers will be getting zero respect on the road in the SEC and decided to bump it to six.

[lindetrain]

(06-05-2012 02:46 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Texas A&M -4 at Ole Miss
Georgia at South Carolina -4
Alabama -13 at Missouri
Alabama -12.5 at Tennessee
Texas A&M at Auburn -9
Tennessee at South Carolina -13
Texas A&M at Mississippi State -6
Texas A&M at Alabama -21

My guesses:

A&M -9.5 at Ole Miss
Georgia PK at South Carolina
Alabama -10 at Mizzou
Alabama -8.5 at Tennessee
A&M at Auburn -3.5
Tennessee at South Carolina -8
A&M at Mississippi State -1
A&M at Alabama -16.5

[lindetrain]

Maybe A&M ends up disappointing every bit as much as they did last year, but just not sure I can discredit them as much as you have. Yes, breaking in a new QB in the SEC, but Sumlin has done fairly well molding young QBs (Bradford, Keenum), so have to give him some credit there. Michael takes full-time duties with the departure of Gray, and they return an excellent WR corps and OL. Two solid DEs and a good LB corps on D. Secondary the only big question outside of QB.

Sumlin certainly an upgrade over Sherman, and perhaps the departure of Tannehill/Sherman will help the Aggies make their inability to win close ones a thing of the past. This team was a PR darling last year, and I'm not convinced enough has changed for it to be any different this time around. Fringe top 25 team, right in the Mizzou/Tennessee/Auburn/Miss State area for me.

[Beyond the Bets]

Of A&M's incredibly disappointing six regular season wins last year: SMU (home), Idaho (home), Kansas (home), Baylor (home), Texas Tech (road), Iowa State (road).

There's a decent chance they start 2-3 with possible losses to La Tech, Florida and Arkansas. Then, not long after, comes the hell stretch: LSU, at Auburn, at Mississippi State, at Alabama.

Wouldn't be stunned if they miss a bowl game. QB will be a weakness rather than a strength.

[lindetrain]

(06-07-2012 07:38 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Of A&M's incredibly disappointing six regular season wins last year: SMU (home), Idaho (home), Kansas (home), Baylor (home), Texas Tech (road), Iowa State (road).

There's a decent chance they start 2-3 with possible losses to La Tech, Florida and Arkansas. Then, not long after, comes the hell stretch: LSU, at Auburn, at Mississippi State, at Alabama.

Wouldn't be stunned if they miss a bowl game. QB will be a weakness rather than a strength.

You and I both know that A&M team was better than their 7-6 record indicated last year. And just because they have a brutal schedule that might result in only 6-7 wins doesn't mean they deserve to be lined like a typical 6-7 win team. Overall schedule irrelevant to PRs/linemaking for me.

[Beyond the Bets]

Again, I just don't see it with A&M. I really don't. It's going to be a rough year and Sumlin will have his work cut out for him. If they get strong QB play, then sure, they can be competitive and maybe win some games they shouldn't. But I remain skeptical of how well Sumlin's system will translate to SEC play in Year 1.

That said, I agree with you on A&M's record from last year, and in a way it's unfair to label them as a team that won just six games in the regular season. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I know for certain they lost a pair of overtime games (Mizzou and K-State) as well as a pair of early-season heartbreakers by less than a field goal (Oklahoma State and Arkansas.)

Also lost to Texas by less than three in the finale.

So, that's five games that could have gone either way, and all of them went against the Aggies.

[Wiseguy]

I would imagine there will be a huge adjustment on the offensive side of the ball going from a pro-style offense to that wide open spread that Sumlin runs. I like the hire but year 1 will be tough especially factoring in losing some good talent to the Nfl.

[Beyond the Bets]

There wasn't much love for A&M in the Golden Nugget lines. Almost everything either stayed the same or moved against them.

[TL Toadvine]

56 early lines, and 45 look pretty solid to me. There are only 11 that I disagree with at the moment, all subject to change of course, but here they are:
1. Florida -2.5 @ Texas A&M / Fla covers easy
2. Ala -3.5 @ Arkansas / Bama covers easy
3. Florida pk @ Tennessee / Florida covers easy
4. Arkansas -2.5 @ Texas A&M / Arkansas covers easy
5. Vandy @ Missouri -10 / Vandy covers
6. Georgia @ South Carolina -4 / Georgia covers
7. Alabama -13 @ Missouri / Bama covers easy
8. Auburn -6 @ Mississippi / Auburn covers easy
9. Kentucky @ Missouri -17 / Kentucky covers
10. Alabama @ LSU -3 / Bama covers
11. LSU -3.5 @ Arkansas / LSU covers easy

I agree with the handicapper on 7 of the 11, just believe the lines may be a little soft

[ChiefZilla]

(07-21-2012 03:39 AM)TL Toadvine Wrote:  5. Vandy @ Missouri -10 / Vandy covers
7. Alabama -13 @ Missouri / Bama covers easy
9. Kentucky @ Missouri -17 / Kentucky covers

Sooooo, you're reallly high on Mizzou this year?

[LOLstradamus]

Something scary when someone says a double digit road favorite in the SEC will 'cover easy'.