Wagering Amount Variation

[mount187]

OK, as a novice I read at least ten different opinions on this every day. Is there a definitive, fact-based answer to flat betting vs betting according to the strength of the play? It seems like everyone has an opinion, but is there any sort of research that indicates which is the best method? Personal opinions are welcome, but just curious if there is any stats-based "proof" on which is better.

[Beyond the Bets]

There are different opinions because everybody is different. We all have different goals, different approaches, different bank rolls, different abilities, and so on. If you can estimate your edge — and since you're new, you probably can't — then you might be better off taking a flat betting approach. As you gain more experience and hone your skills, you'll be able to "profile" yourself a bit, meaning you can identify your strengths, your weaknesses, etc. Only then (and while considering any number of other external factors), can you decide what the "optimal" strategy is.

I'd provide you with suggested reading on expected value and a few other items of interest, but really, what's the point? You need to bet some games, keep your bets small and just experiment a little. Trial & error. In the process, educate yourself as much as possible — by reading these forums, other forums, Twitter, books, listening to podcasts, etc.

Understand this: There is no "right" way to win.

[Skating Tripods]

I bet the same amounts for every game, unless I'm laying extra juice. Then I will up my bet a little to compensate.

I may have a better feel about a game than another, and I do have multi-unit bets on some win totals, but what I find is this: If you are betting the same flat amount, you are less likely to chase later at night to recoup your losses.

It's important to make bets based on the size of your bankroll and the percentage that you already have wagered. If you've already spread yourself thin, either bet fewer games or lower your bet amount. Like I told you in one of the other posts, if you're betting straight spreads and not parlays, teasers, whatever else, it's really hard to get your money back.

If you're betting $20 per game and winning two of every three, you're making just $18 dollars (+38, -20). That's not even enough to cover a loss on your next wager.


I like that you're asking a lot of questions, but you really need to simplify your approach. Make straight bets against the spread for responsible amounts. It's a process. You get better at it every time you make a bet. I can't imagine that you're trying to make a living out of this, so put the money on the backburner. Open Notepad and keep track of wins and losses. Separate them by spreads, totals, and moneylines. Watch your percentage of success.

Watch how you grow as a bettor. Separate them week by week. If you go 3-4 one week, aim for 4-3 the next week.

[TuskTusk]

If you can determine your edge, and that's the big "IF," I would suggest using 1/2 or 1/4 Kelly. Otherwise your bet size should be $0.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

[mount187]

(09-23-2011 02:28 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  I bet the same amounts for every game, unless I'm laying extra juice. Then I will up my bet a little to compensate.

I may have a better feel about a game than another, and I do have multi-unit bets on some win totals, but what I find is this: If you are betting the same flat amount, you are less likely to chase later at night to recoup your losses.

It's important to make bets based on the size of your bankroll and the percentage that you already have wagered. If you've already spread yourself thin, either bet fewer games or lower your bet amount. Like I told you in one of the other posts, if you're betting straight spreads and not parlays, teasers, whatever else, it's really hard to get your money back.

If you're betting $20 per game and winning two of every three, you're making just $18 dollars (+38, -20). That's not even enough to cover a loss on your next wager.


I like that you're asking a lot of questions, but you really need to simplify your approach. Make straight bets against the spread for responsible amounts. It's a process. You get better at it every time you make a bet. I can't imagine that you're trying to make a living out of this, so put the money on the backburner. Open Notepad and keep track of wins and losses. Separate them by spreads, totals, and moneylines. Watch your percentage of success.

Watch how you grow as a bettor. Separate them week by week. If you go 3-4 one week, aim for 4-3 the next week.

Good advice, and yes, if I were trying to make a living off of this, it'd be Chapter 11 time. It's a lot to take in, and there is SO MUCH information available now that it's nearly impossible to process all of it. Nobody likes to hear, "trial and error" when it involves money, but it sounds like that's the learning curve. You're right though, probably wouldn't be the worst idea to choose bets and not put money on them for a while, until I get a sense of what getting right and what I'm missing.

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(09-23-2011 02:31 PM)TuskTusk Wrote:  If you can determine your edge, and that's the big "IF," I would suggest using 1/2 or 1/4 Kelly. Otherwise your bet size should be $0.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

That leads me to the obvious rookie question, how does one begin to find what their edge is? Do you track your picks by sport / wager type and then only take plays on situations you have a specific edge in? If you're over 55%, do you fire then, or should you be at a higher rate than that?

[Skating Tripods]

(09-23-2011 02:33 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Good advice, and yes, if I were trying to make a living off of this, it'd be Chapter 11 time. It's a lot to take in, and there is SO MUCH information available now that it's nearly impossible to process all of it. Nobody likes to hear, "trial and error" when it involves money, but it sounds like that's the learning curve. You're right though, probably wouldn't be the worst idea to choose bets and not put money on them for a while, until I get a sense of what getting right and what I'm missing.

Trial and error is probably the wrong terminology, but it's the closest available to what we're saying. It's like educated guessing. If you educate yourself on both teams, you can give yourself a chance to win.

Here's another way to look at it. Let's say you bet 100 games at $10. You go exactly 50-50. You would win $450. You would lose $500. For $50, you gained a wealth of experience. Not some shit you read in a book, real life experience.

You may go worse than 50/50. You may go 48/52. You may go better than 50/50. You may go 54/48. For minimal risk, you have gotten a feel for what you need to do.

I wasn't necessarily saying to pick without placing money, because that would create bad habits. With nothing on the line, you'd start betting "Ah, what the hell" games. You don't want to get into the habit of doing that. Just place small wagers. It's like an investment.

Albert Pujols didn't walk into the batter's box in Little League and start hitting line drives. Aaron Rodgers didn't pick up a football and start throwing 20 yard passes. Everything you do in life takes work and practice. Sports betting is no different. Give yourself a small amount to play for (incentive) and keep track of how you do.

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-23-2011 02:31 PM)TuskTusk Wrote:  If you can determine your edge, and that's the big "IF," I would suggest using 1/2 or 1/4 Kelly. Otherwise your bet size should be $0.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

No offense, but this is such a stupid response and one I'm sick of seeing from the elitists who think they're so much smarter than everybody else. Look, dude, we "got it." You do this for a living and have a professional approach. "We gotcha!"

But 99.9% of people that bet on sports are doing it for recreation, for fun, for entertainment, for the competitive spirit, or whatever. How many people do you see at a bar with a beer in their left hand and a Kelly calculator in the other?

Here is a guy that is brand new to sports betting — who SAYS he is brand new to sports betting — and yet you say, "If you can determine your edge..."

Of COURSE he can't determine his edge. Heck, lots of people that have been betting on sports for two, three, four or even 10 years can't estimate their edge.

You can. You do this for a living. Which is great. But please, enough with the snarky comments that don't bring anything to the table.

Posting a link to Kelly to someone who says he is a beginner is the equivalent of me telling a guy who just took up golf to "play the ball off the back of your stance, take the club 45 degrees off plane, and then bend it around that tree up ahead."

Sometimes, if you're new, it's best to just swing the damn club and worry about all that other stuff later on.

[mount187]

Thanks again for the responses. Just to give you a better picture of what's going on with me, think of the scene in Office Space where the guys are trying to figure out how to launder money in their apartment. That's pretty equivalent to what I'm going through here. My peer group are a bunch of computer nerds that love sports, but for some reason, picking winners is head-scratchingly difficult to all of us. To paraphrase what they say in the movie, "How can people with little to no education crush these numbers week after week and we suck so badly at it?"

*Obviously I respect the people here and don't think of anyone here as "uneducated", just using that scene to make a point. :)

[Beyond the Bets]

My last reply was out of line. Very uncharacteristic of me.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-23-2011 02:52 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  My last reply was out of line. Very uncharacteristic of me.

Bullshit. It was dead nuts on.

Well, uncharacteristic of you, yes. But what you said was 100% correct.

[TuskTusk]

(09-23-2011 02:33 PM)mount187 Wrote:  

(09-23-2011 02:31 PM)TuskTusk Wrote:  If you can determine your edge, and that's the big "IF," I would suggest using 1/2 or 1/4 Kelly. Otherwise your bet size should be $0.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

That leads me to the obvious rookie question, how does one begin to find what their edge is? Do you track your picks by sport / wager type and then only take plays on situations you have a specific edge in? If you're over 55%, do you fire then, or should you be at a higher rate than that?

The comment wasn't intended to be snarky by any means. I MOST certainly would have liked that link when I was starting out.

If you can assume any game you have no idea on is 50/50 then go from there. Any game you feel very strongly, estimate your edge as 53% - 55%. That way you are not wagering too much, or over-betting your bankroll. I think Kelly gives you an optimal idea of how much to wager.

And then as always, never wager more than you are comfortable losing.

Even if you are over estimating your edge, or can't estimate your edge, that formula gives you a very good idea of what an optimal size bet is in relation to ones bankroll.

[itg_sports]

(09-23-2011 02:47 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-23-2011 02:31 PM)TuskTusk Wrote:  If you can determine your edge, and that's the big "IF," I would suggest using 1/2 or 1/4 Kelly. Otherwise your bet size should be $0.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

No offense, but this is such a stupid response and one I'm sick of seeing from the elitists who think they're so much smarter than everybody else. Look, dude, we "got it." You do this for a living and have a professional approach. "We gotcha!"

But 99.9% of people that bet on sports are doing it for recreation, for fun, for entertainment, for the competitive spirit, or whatever. How many people do you see at a bar with a beer in their left hand and a Kelly calculator in the other?

Here is a guy that is brand new to sports betting — who SAYS he is brand new to sports betting — and yet you say, "If you can determine your edge..."

Of COURSE he can't determine his edge. Heck, lots of people that have been betting on sports for two, three, four or even 10 years can't estimate their edge.

You can. You do this for a living. Which is great. But please, enough with the snarky comments that don't bring anything to the table.

Posting a link to Kelly to someone who says he is a beginner is the equivalent of me telling a guy who just took up golf to "play the ball off the back of your stance, take the club 45 degrees off plane, and then bend it around that tree up ahead."

Sometimes, if you're new, it's best to just swing the damn club and worry about all that other stuff later on.

BTB...I don't know if like this "gangsta" side of you. Has sin city already left it's mark?

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-23-2011 06:25 PM)itg_sports Wrote:  BTB...I don't know if like this "gangsta" side of you. Has sin city already left it's mark?

Watch it. You'll be next!

[@oconnellp]

I can see how Tusk Tusk wasnt trying to be snarky, just a quick response. But I can see why BTB blew up. There is so much elitist, ego, jerk-off attitude in the sports betting world that it does get old real quick. A big part of it is that there are no real right answers, just results. If you find a system that works for you, you wanna protect it and keep that edge, because the edge is so small. But a lot of guys are insecure because even the best are losing 45% of the time, and nobody wants to be considered a loser. Gotta keep up that rep. They try to comphensate with ego and superiority, stats, numbers, lingo, withholding strategies. Thats why this forum is great BTB. A lot of knowledgeable/novice guys trying to help each other out and share information without the attitude.

[lowphi]

IMO estimating your edge is just as hard as picking winners.
If you stare at a screen all day and play for a living... Kelly or some varient is an option (by no means the only way).
For the other 98% of the players out there, any system that is based on the idea of money management will do. The easiest, set a bankroll number bet a % of your roll per play (for me 3% is the number). 75% of the plays are 1 unit, 20% a half-unit (or 1.5%) and a few 1.5 unit plays (4.5%).
As you win your bet sizing increases, but more importantly when you're losing your bets become smaller.
Truth is though, most players bet their balance on 5-6 plays per deposit and reload. If you tell someone like that to estimate their edge... believe me, the balance goes in two plays. Like @oconnellp said, even the best are losing close to half the time. Most players need to focus on how to manage their money than optimal bet sizing.
my2cents