Virginia Tech vs. teams on bye week

[Beyond the Bets]

From the main page:

One of the most interesting line moves when the Golden Nugget released its college football Games of the Year was the Florida State-Virginia Tech matchup on Nov. 8, an ESPN Thursday game.

Florida State opened as a 1-point underdog but was quickly bet to -3. A few months later, the LVH SuperBook opened the Seminoles as 4.5-point favorites.

Why are the Seminoles getting so much credit in a late-season road game against a tough opponent, one that's enjoyed the best homefield advantage in the ACC for much of the past decade? There are probably two main reasons:

1. Florida State is perceived to be the superior team.
2. Florida State is coming off a bye week and has four extra days to prepare.

While we can concede the first point, the second one shouldn't carry much weight. There's little evidence that suggests extra preparation time leads to an increased success rate, as Andy Bitter, a Virginia Tech beat writer, recently pointed out.

Bitter analyzed the Hokies' schedule over the last 10 years and found 22 situations in which the opponent had extra time to prepare—either because of a bye week or a scheduling quirk.

• Record against teams with extra time: 18-4 (.818).
• Record in every other game: 102-33 (.756).

So, Virginia Tech has actually fared better against teams with extra time to prepare than it has otherwise, and the more days an opponent has, the better the Hokies have performed.

• vs. opponents with 7 days rest: 7-0
• vs. opponents with 5 days rest: 4-1
• vs. opponents with 1-4 days rest: 7-3

Florida State is a strong team that can certainly beat Virginia Tech in a game that's expected to have major ACC implications. But if the motivation behind the line move had anything to do with scheduling, it's probably an overreaction.

Early lean: Virginia Tech +4.5.

[Beyond the Bets]

Virginia Tech is 17-5 ATS. MT @BLeonardSports Straight up numbers mean little. What are VT's spread results vs. team w/ extra time?

— Beyond the Bets (@beyondthebets) July 30, 2012

Florida State +1 was probably a good bet. But I think VT +4.5 is a great bet, too.

[cyptomcat]

A general study of the effect of extra time was done couple years ago.

Quote:Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was favored.

There were 40 such contests in the span I looked at, and the favored team coming off of a bye week went 34-6 (.850). In overall games from my last upset study, the favored team went 203-22 (.902). The sample set sizes are a bit different, so it may just be noise that favored teams ended up doing worse coming off of a bye week than overall games. Either way, it certainly not a clear advantage to be coming off of a bye week as the favored team.

The upsets, if you're curious, are as follows: 2002 South Carolina (5 wins) over Kentucky (7), 2003 Vanderbilt (2) over Kentucky (4), 2003 Florida (8) over LSU (13), 2003 Texas Tech (8) over Ole Miss (10), 2005 Tennessee (5) over LSU (11), and 2008 Tennessee (5) over Kentucky (7).

Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was not favored.

There were 37 such contests in the span I looked at, and the underdogs coming off of bye weeks were 6-31 (.162). In overall games, underdogs were 22-203 (.098). The same caveat about sample size applies, so again, the difference could just be noise. Still, it would appear that there is some kind of advantage presented for underdogs coming off of bye weeks versus underdogs overall.

tossups
In tossups, we should see teams coming off of bye weeks winning more than half of the time if there really is some kind of advantage. Right? Right.

Unfortunately, that's not what the numbers say. Teams coming off of bye weeks in tossup games are just 13-19 (.406). At home, they're an even .500 (8-8) and on the road they're just 4-11 (.267). There was one neutral site tossup where Florida (9 wins) beat Georgia (10) in 2005, but D.J. Shockley's injury played a much bigger role in the Bulldogs' loss than UF's bye week did.

http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/4/15/...eks-matter

Another study on this:

Quote:Over the last 10 seasons, college football road favorites coming off a bye week were just 106-152-2 against the point spread. But we can dig a bit deeper and come up with an even better trend.

The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaaf...fbbyes.htm

[Beyond the Bets]

How recent is the last post you linked to?

[cyptomcat]

(08-02-2012 09:21 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  How recent is the last post you linked to?

september 2009

[Beyond the Bets]

Damn. Anybody want to look up the last two years?