USA Basketball

[jimmysingh9]

hope all of you are enjoying your summer,

I have had this on my mind for a month but decided to start a discussion, but when I look at the US BBall team, I just don't totally like it. I obviously don't like what they have at the 4 and 5 spots and I am not in love with their PG's. Sure Durant, James, Kobe are beasts but I just think they can be had at the Olympics. I would even be willing to fade them, especially on the spread a couple of times.

you have got to think that the ML if they lose will be big. I don't mean against Angola, but Spain, Argentina, the other good teams.

I haven't looked at rosters for what the other countries bring and it could be that no team has that sort of team that can bounce the US team.

I just have that feeling...


enjoy the summer guys.

[Dullbettor]

You get your first opportunity to fade the U.S. tonight jf you'd like.

They open as 41 point favorites against the Dominican. That is ridiculous. I watched the DR play though and they are real bad. They have Al Horford but that is all in terms of talent. It all depends on how much the U.S. wants to push this.

[illadelphia]

Blake Griffin aggravated a left knee injury during U.S. Olympic team training camp and has returned to Los Angeles for evaluation.

[ChiefZilla]

I'm loving Dom-Rep +41 tonight.

[illadelphia]

113-59.

I only watched a portion of the game early but the international 3 point line looked "too close" for Kevin Durantula. He was NBA Jam "on fire" at one point.

[SkyBlues42]

(07-12-2012 10:26 PM)illadelphia Wrote:  113-59.

I only watched a portion of the game early but the international 3 point line looked "too close" for Kevin Durantula. He was NBA Jam "on fire" at one point.

That's funny.. I turned the game off at halftime actually thinking it was pretty impressive that the Dom. Rep. was able to keep it somewhat respectable.

[RickRude]

(07-12-2012 10:26 PM)illadelphia Wrote:  113-59.

I only watched a portion of the game early but the international 3 point line looked "too close" for Kevin Durantula. He was NBA Jam "on fire" at one point.

Durant lit up that 3 point line during the World Championships in 2010. Shot almost 50 percent and took 6 a game. He's going to have a huge Olympics as long as he gets the ball. I would think this USA version is ripe to get beat, but Spain has issues on the perimeter and don't think they can hang without Rubio and a hobbling Fernandez. They are the only team with enough offensive depth to challenge Team USA.

Brazil is also humongous inside with Nene, Splitter, Torres and Sideshow Bob but their perimeter is poo poo.

[ChiefZilla]

So can we learn anything from this? Will this U.S. team be too good for spreads? Or is it just nonsense trying to make conclusions about games that have 41-point spreads?

[SkyBlues42]

(07-13-2012 05:16 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  So can we learn anything from this? Will this U.S. team be too good for spreads? Or is it just nonsense trying to make conclusions about games that have 41-point spreads?

Nonsense. A basketball game with a 41 point spread should be avoided. I know the USA covered, but how can you seriously lay 41 points and feel comfortable? Probably going to be a theme of the Olympics.

[Dullbettor]

Tonight the U.S. is favored by 32.5. I know less people are probably betting on this because there is now baseball, but I was just wondering if anyone has any opinion on this game?

The one thing I will say is with Westbrook playing more point guard with cp3 injured, the U.S. pushes the pace more and can open the fast break a little more.

[seneca15krookk]

I am taking brazil with 33 points with some solid NBA players they should be able to keep it within that amount

[JayPrimetown]

I like Brazil to cover as well. Brazil should do pretty well on the glass given their size on the inside which should limit the US's ability at second chance points.

Brazil did knock off Argentina by 15 points recently which is a good sign that Brazil is playing decent basketball. With the right draw, I think Brazil has an outside shot at a bronze medal in London.

[jimmysingh9]

great job guys, sorry I didn't post this but Brazil is one of the teams I'm talking about. If you have me on twitter, I had a little conversation in the morning with PayneInsider about taking Brazil.

USA lacks those outside shooters and I think games will be tight until they figure out an offensive set or something. having -30's on Brazil, Argentina, Spain and maybe France are just plain stupid

[SkyBlues42]

(07-16-2012 09:01 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  great job guys, sorry I didn't post this but Brazil is one of the teams I'm talking about. If you have me on twitter, I had a little conversation in the morning with PayneInsider about taking Brazil.

USA lacks those outside shooters and I think games will be tight until they figure out an offensive set or something. having -30's on Brazil, Argentina, Spain and maybe France are just plain stupid

You think they'll keep the spreads that high once the Olympics actually start? I can't imagine they would (against the teams you've mentioned).

[jimmysingh9]

I think that Brazil exhibition will change the perception a little bit. I think if you get a mostly American betting book that you could get inflated USA lines. You know alot of Americans will bet the USA in basketball for action and I don't know how many pros bet Olympic BBall, so the line gets inflated.

The USA 2nd half line vs Dominican opened at -12.5 and closed at -20, that is a huge swing, but the books opened at the wrong number and it got hammered into shape, so I don't think they are really sharp with their opening lines right now.


You can see the problem with this US team is that they can't shoot from the perimeter. Lebron hasn't been a great shooter, Kobe looks his age. Paul, Williams aren't amazing 3 point guys. Durant is probably the only guy that can light it up from the Perimeter. They really don't go downlow with Chandler in there.

They have to rely on their defense and fast breaks, you can tell they are lost in their offensive sets since they have 4-5 scorers on at a time. Their talent will get them out of games but I think even maybe fading them 1st half where they might take time to adjust to defense might be a great bet.

I actually think some of their bench players are better suited than their starters and the other problem with betting the full game is if it's a blowout and another team plays their bench guys vs USA's bench guys than that is an even bigger mismatch.

[LOLstradamus]

Personally I'd lay off until the London games tip-off. So many variables in an exhibition game and when you're talking about spreads greater than 20 it really is a crapshoot at that point. Hard to derive any value from that, not to mention your only historical data points are two games you've seen this squad play together.

[jimmysingh9]

the shooting isn't going to change. They aren't a good outside shooting squad and they lack big men that score. they have the best slashers, athletic wings by a mile and have the best point guards, but they didnt gel last olympics, it's not like they ran amazing sets to get players open. They will win the tourney based on talent and defense alone, but there is value when you get big spreads.

-32 was ridiculous against a team with NBA players and decent international players

[jimmysingh9]

USA fails to cover again against a decent opponent in Argentina. That is 0-2 against decent opponents and 2-0 vs crappy opponents.


The line did move against USA today so people are catching on.

[seneca15krookk]

It really seemed to easy with the Argentina and Brazil games catching around 30 points against teams with quality NBA players and good chemistry.

Hopefully the books don't catch on to the fact that teams can compete with the U.S

[jimmysingh9]

It is also because they play ball pressure defense and come double hard, so teams with good ball handling guards will get alot of these teams open looks and almost all the decent non-NBA players are killer shooters