UFC143/MMA

[MMADegen]

Hey all, noticed theres not a lot of ufc chatter on these forums but I find mma lines to be quite soft when they open and looks like a place where there could be quite a lot of value. Anyways onto the fight card this weekend
http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-143-...s-diaz-478

I got 1u nick diaz-150 when the lines first came out, don't see much value on either fighter at current lines

Also like Kos but would like to get him around -220, -240-260 just seems like too much juice to lay to a guy with KO power and we know Kos takes fights lightly when he isn't too concerned with his opponent (re: kos vs paulo thiago)

Anyways just started this threat hoping there may be some other BTB guys out there who enjoy watching/analyzing/handicapping mma fights

Bets so far for UFC143-
1u nickdiaz-150
.5u diaz by tko/ko/dq +325
.2u kos by sub +625
.1u nelson by sub +1400

[attyg3]

(02-03-2012 02:44 PM)MMADegen Wrote:  Hey all, noticed theres not a lot of ufc chatter on these forums but I find mma lines to be quite soft when they open and looks like a place where there could be quite a lot of value. Anyways onto the fight card this weekend
http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-143-...s-diaz-478

I got 1u nick diaz-150 when the lines first came out, don't see much value on either fighter at current lines

Also like Kos but would like to get him around -220, -240-260 just seems like too much juice to lay to a guy with KO power and we know Kos takes fights lightly when he isn't too concerned with his opponent (re: kos vs paulo thiago)

Anyways just started this threat hoping there may be some other BTB guys out there who enjoy watching/analyzing/handicapping mma fights

Bets so far for UFC143-
1u nickdiaz-150
.5u diaz by tko/ko/dq +325
.2u kos by sub +625
.1u nelson by sub +1400

Don't see a ton of value on this card, but I do like Nelson(+130) against Werdum. Nelson has an obvious advantage on the feet and is no joke on the ground. He's probably the most underrated black belt in the UFC. Werdum obviously has world class jiu-jitsu and has the edge, but he looks lost when it comes to stand up. I think this fight should be more like a PICK, so I'll take the +130.

[JayPrimetown]

Werdum I thought had the best value of anyone on the main card... Nelson has yet to beat to beat a top 10 guy (which Werdum is). I'll gladly take someone like him to do what Mir did to Nelson... grind out a win.

Also have a play for Kos to win by decision... Pierce's only losses have come via a decision. Never been knocked out / submitted in the octagon. Kos has abilities, but I don't see him finishing this fight.

Really like Barao, but can't back him -240.

Will look at the undercard tomorrow.

[MMADegen]

I also like Nelson especially after the weighins, you can almost see some abs under that belly. He should have a standup edge and usually 2 grapplers decide to brawl when they cancel each other out. Also I believe this line is slightly inflated solely because werdum beat fedor and everyones still talking about it

how can riddle lose when hes fighting a guy so much smaller than him and he has a distinct wrestling advantage? even at -400 it seems like a giant lock

[attyg3]

I also think Jorgensen has some good value at +225. I know Barao is flashy on his feet with flying knees and crazy KO's, but I'm not confident in his takedown defense. I see Jorgensen taking him down, passing his guard, and beating him up on the ground. I was surprised at the line, and feel he offers good value.

[attyg3]

Man, was I wrong on Barao. His take down defense was way better than I thought. Jorgensen went the distance, but was outclassed. Took a shot with the value, but Barao was on another level

[GrandaddyCrunk]

I lost an 11-teamer with Diaz. Not happy with that decision at all, can see why it was given but I don't think you deserve to win a fight with leg kicks that weren't doing anything but running up the strike tally.