Tuesday MLB

[BetATL]

Getting this thread up early as opening lines were just released at BOL.

One total I like is the Phillies/Twins Under 9.5. You can call this a ballpark bet but I think 9.5 is too high for this park and these offenses.

Thoughts?

[gynecologist]

both pitchers seem to be pitching better than their ERA's suggest.. Target field not a hitters park..

I think the line is a tad high myself.

[illadelphia]

(06-11-2012 01:40 PM)BetATL Wrote:  Getting this thread up early as opening lines were just released at BOL.

One total I like is the Phillies/Twins Under 9.5. You can call this a ballpark bet but I think 9.5 is too high for this park and these offenses.

Thoughts?

Interesting number 9.5. Seems very high. Not a real exciting pitching matchup there.

RHP Kyle Kendrick vs RHP Nick Blackburn

Blackburn has no staying power. He hasn't gone more than 6 innings in 5 of his 8 starts this year and has just 1 quality start in 2012. He is just one start removed from a 15-day DL stint (quad injury). In his last start he earned the W (4-2 vs KC) and he allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings, but struck out only 1.

Kendrick is far from reliable. He is very erratic and frankly is only pitching because Doc is on the shelf. Like Blackburn, it is very possible he only goes 5 or 6 innings max. The phillies bullpen has been hemorrhaging runs. Watch for Josh Willingham vs KK. Willingham already has 41 RBIs this season and for his career he is hitting .364 with 5 RBI in 11 ABs against KK.

Based on that I could see a total around 9.5 BUT .....

the phillies offense has been reprehensible. This is a case where i find a stat to be useful in conjunction with what I am seeing with my own eyes.

Quote:The Phillies are dead last in baseball with a 38 percent success rate when batting with runners on third and less than two outs. They have batted 117 times with that situation and only 45 have yielded a run in some way, whether it be via a hit, groundout or sacrifice fly. That is the worst rate for any team since at least 1948.

Under 9.5 is a good play but wouldn't like it at any # lower than that with those 2 shitbags on the mound

[SkyBlues42]

Phillies games have gone over quite a bit. One of the best -- if not the best -- over teams in the league this season.

[BetATL]

2 more I like:

Got burned on the Over in Yankees/Braves last night but going back to that wager again tonight. Think Minor gets hit hard here by the Yanks and Braves will rebound against Sabathia. Once the total moved to 8, I bet it.

Also like the Red Sox to rebound behind Bucholtz, who has been good lately. Red Sox hitters are very familiar with Beuhrle and have had some good success against him.

[illadelphia]

(06-12-2012 09:29 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Phillies games have gone over quite a bit. One of the best -- if not the best -- over teams in the league this season.

Correct SkyBlues. Lots of overs so far for the phils. 39 overs and 22 unders with 1 push thus far. I don't know where that ranks them overall.

Also saw something about Twins OVER is 5-2 following a day off. Kinda makes sense that guys who have had a day to rest are more likely to produce runs at a higher rate.

Seems like 9.5 is gone at most places and it is now at 9. Probably worth it to wait and see who Charlie has in the lineup tonight - for offensive and defensive reasons that might affect the total.

Defensively, when the Phillies were at their peak, they had above decent to good defenders at 2nd (Utley), SS (younger JRoll), 3rd (Pedro Feliz/Polanco), catcher (Chooooch Ruiz), CF (Victorino) and RF (Jayson Werth). Recently, Charlie has been fielding decent to brutal defenders in LF and RF, and at 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Offensively, the Freddy Galvis injury doesn't have much of an effect on the offense. Fontenot has been making better contact than Galvis over the past couple of weeks. But it is hard to expect/rely on consistent production from Hector Luna, Ty Wiggington, et al.

One thing I forgot is the Phillies have the added bonus of a DH hitter. It seems very likely that Charlie will use Thome in this spot. Especially since this signing has become just that, a $1.25 million DH hitter. Thome is familiar with Target Field and last July crushed a Felipe Paulino HR a target field record, 465ft . But that was last year, this year he is hitting just .242 (8 for 33) with only 1 HR which came when he was the DH on Sat vs Baltimore.

Only made a small play at under 9.5 because I liked the number. After some more thought, I want to wait and see the lineups

[JetsMetsRangers]

Hoping to continue my success after an 11-4 week.

My plays today:

Giants RL +140- Bumgartner is really good, especially at home. Norris has a 7.80 era on the road. Not the greatest odds at RL, but worth a shot.

Mets +157- I usually don't play matchups with uncertain pitchers, but I haven't been impressed with Cobb from what I've seen. Chris Young looked good in his first start and I have a feeling he'll catch the Rays off guard tonight. +157 is good juice.

Athletics +106 - Both these teams are playing horribly, but I went with the pitching splits here. Guthrie has an 8.70 era at home and Colon 2.49 on the road.

Dodgers +104- Hmm, what am I missing here? The Dodgers are a good team using Harang, who has a 3.20 era at home and relatively good peripherals. Jerome Williams has more walks than strikeouts on the road. Must be a case of Vegas overvaluing a hot Angels team. These guys freakin love the Angels.

Good luck to all.



I was very close to betting the DBacks (they're on a roll and I love Kennedy), but the juice just wasn't high enough at +156 on the road against an excellent team.

[illadelphia]

(06-12-2012 10:39 AM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote:  Mets +157- I usually don't play matchups with uncertain pitchers, but I haven't been impressed with Cobb from what I've seen. Chris Young looked good in his first start and I have a feeling he'll catch the Rays off guard tonight. +157 is good juice.

What about Young will catch the Rays off guard tonight? I ask because I am debating starting him in our BTB fantasy league but not sure what to expect from him.

[JetsMetsRangers]

(06-12-2012 10:51 AM)illadelphia Wrote:  

(06-12-2012 10:39 AM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote:  Mets +157- I usually don't play matchups with uncertain pitchers, but I haven't been impressed with Cobb from what I've seen. Chris Young looked good in his first start and I have a feeling he'll catch the Rays off guard tonight. +157 is good juice.

What about Young will catch the Rays off guard tonight? I ask because I am debating starting him in our BTB fantasy league but not sure what to expect from him.

I feel that most teams facing him for the first time will have a hard time, at least teams playing him early on. Guy throws an 85 mph fastball yet baffles everyone. It's his height. Anyway, I have no statistical evidence on this one and I don't make those kind of bets often. Total intuition here.

[gynecologist]

Hopefully its batting practice on Minor... Yanks love struggling lhp

bum 1.77 era @ home, Norris 7.8ERA on road

Think theres a good chance the Blue Jays eat Chicken Wang

Buchholz on great form, Buerhle not good history vs Boston. Mia hitting .197 l7 games

cueto is an ace

dodgers/angels game will be decided by one run

felix -0.5 ff, he should out duel richard, right?

[illadelphia]

1. Jimmy Rollins 6
2. Juan Pierre 7
3. Hunter Pence 9
4. Jim Thome 0
5. Shane Victorino 8
6. Ty Wigginton 3
7. Carlos Ruiz 2
8. Mike Fontenot 5
9. Michael Martinez 4

Not sure what I was waiting for to see with this lineup. Michael Martinez is pretty terrible.

Did see that nearly the entire group of position players took to Target Field for early batting practice today. Sticking with my small play on under 9.5 from yesterday. It is not Under 9 (+110)

[JetsMetsRangers]

4-0 night, including hitting a 4 team parlay. Awesome!

[Wiseguy]

Nice job!