Tuesday College Hoops

[jimmysingh9]

small card again. like the wed/thurs cards...sat too much.


I think I am going to take Florida +9.5. I know Kentucky is a monster at home, but to me, they still have trouble scoring at times and I am not sure if their perimeter defense is that good to shutdown the Florida guards. I think if Florida can hit some 3's here, they should be able to hang around in this game. Alabama hung around with Kentucky and I think Florida can as well.

Young and Davis will be a good matchup.


Auburn +5. I am thinking about this. Rivalry game, Auburn at home. Mitchell is suspended and Bama at times looks very stagnant on offense and loosing a scoring option with Mitchell will make that even worse. Auburn will be outclassed here but thinking the home court, rivalry can get them into a dogfight here.

Creighton -5.5. I bet this already. Creighton should be too much vs Evansville. Evansville has Ryan who can score but after that, not too much. I think too much firepower here for Creighton.

also want to take Providence and the points. not really impressed with Nova and Providence can put up points, may bite on 7.5.

[SkyBlues42]

Siding with Florida as well. Kentucky is definitely a beast at home, but they haven't been great in covering spreads. The thing that concerns me is how bad they've been beating SEC teams as of late: four straight wins by more than 20 points, but I think Florida can hang.

Kentucky struggled in their win over UNC and loss to Indiana, mainly because the Hoosiers and Tar Heels knocked down long-range jumpers. Well, Florida is the best team in the country in terms of made three-pointers. They'll try to take the "Davis" advantage out of play by keeping possession around the perimeter.

There's no point in going inside.

[JayPrimetown]

Like Florida to cover as well... they should be locked into this game given its importance. As you said, Tucky has not done well covering spreads. 9.5 point favorite over a fellow top 10 team... just isn't right.

Also on Ok. St -1.5 over Iowa State. ISU is having one of their best years in a decade, but show me you can get a result on the road before I back you.

[CTA_CAT]

(02-07-2012 12:11 AM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Like Florida to cover as well... they should be locked into this game given its importance. As you said, Tucky has not done well covering spreads. 9.5 point favorite over a fellow top 10 team... just isn't right.

Also on Ok. St -1.5 over Iowa State. ISU is having one of their best years in a decade, but show me you can get a result on the road before I back you.

i actually like kentucky in this one. they've been playing well together lately, and as a young team i take that as a sign of gelling. i think it continues, and UK wins comfortably by 12-15. Florida relies a lot on the 3, and kentucky defends the 3 well. Florida won't do any damage in the paint at all against a rising tjones and davis.

probably will play a tease, but i do lean the cats on the spread as well.

[The Posse]

(02-06-2012 11:31 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Creighton -5.5. I bet this already. Creighton should be too much vs Evansville. Evansville has Ryan who can score but after that, not too much. I think too much firepower here for Creighton.

Agree with this analysis and lean Creighton as well. My only concern is that Creighton looks ahead to Wichita State on Saturday and lays an egg.

[TheHandicaper]

I agree, with the first two, not Creighton though.
Florida will touch 10 at some point. Think they will have enough public behind them. I'll hold my money until then.
And Auburn is actually my favorite side on the entire card. Auburn has played better and better, and at home they are significantly stronger anyway. 'bama does not travel well, only 'meaningful ' win is really Georgia (if you want to call it that). I recall that game at Dayton Arena where they got down by 11 nearing the end of the half, and couldn't even get a little closer. Explosive environment that day, just like there'll be tomorrow. Think Auburn wins it straight up for whatever it is worth.
Want to throw something out there, see if you think I'm crazy. I was looking at this game since yesterday thinking this was gonna be a soft line (by public perception that is) to take a lot of money on Alabama making people buy the tide before their game at LSU with what will be some pretty angry Tigers. The line actually came out higher than I expected, destroying my made up conspiracy theory. But still, are people gonna be on the Tide tomorrow? Still think 5 is an appealing number for the average Joe. The way CBB has been carrying me lately, I know I am gonna fire something bigger than normal on Auburn.

[lincolnduff]

As you can tell by my avatar I am not the most unbiased poster, that being said I am going to make a case against Florida +9.5. Uk is playing their best ball right now, but what might surprise you is they are the #1 defense in the country. the reason Indiana drained all those threes on them is because they have multiple talented bigs that made Davis, gilchrist, and jones stay inside to guard. Florida's only good big is Patrick young and Davis should be able to handle him. This leaves three 6'8 plus defenders to guard the three (jones, miller, Kidd-Gilchrist). Now once again I am biased but just looking at it Florida only has 1way to keep it close, if UK can take the threes away it could get ugly. Hope that was helpful, I will try to comment on UK from time to time, I don't believe that UK is going to win every game either, in fact miss state scares me because they can match up with bigs. I think fla is outmatched and will struggle to stay within 10.

[VincentValour]

(02-06-2012 11:31 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  small card again. like the wed/thurs cards...sat too much.


I think I am going to take Florida +9.5. I know Kentucky is a monster at home, but to me, they still have trouble scoring at times and I am not sure if their perimeter defense is that good to shutdown the Florida guards. I think if Florida can hit some 3's here, they should be able to hang around in this game. Alabama hung around with Kentucky and I think Florida can as well.

Young and Davis will be a good matchup.


Auburn +5. I am thinking about this. Rivalry game, Auburn at home. Mitchell is suspended and Bama at times looks very stagnant on offense and loosing a scoring option with Mitchell will make that even worse. Auburn will be outclassed here but thinking the home court, rivalry can get them into a dogfight here.

Creighton -5.5. I bet this already. Creighton should be too much vs Evansville. Evansville has Ryan who can score but after that, not too much. I think too much firepower here for Creighton.

also want to take Providence and the points. not really impressed with Nova and Providence can put up points, may bite on 7.5.

As far as numbers go for these games, I do have Kentucky -7 so little bit of value there. As for Auburn and Providence I think the book makers made these games a little higher than the numbers dictate because of a big difference in strength of schedule between the teams.

Nova 6th toughest SOS
Providence 114th in SOS

Bama 14th in SOS
Auburn 153th in SOS

Nothing really jumped out at me for tomorrow's card, just some tid bits of info. Will look to play Nebraska Wednesday, but will get into that tomorrow night.

[Jaeger62]

(02-07-2012 12:49 AM)TheHandicaper Wrote:  I agree, with the first two, not Creighton though.
Florida will touch 10 at some point. Think they will have enough public behind them. I'll hold my money until then.
And Auburn is actually my favorite side on the entire card. Auburn has played better and better, and at home they are significantly stronger anyway. 'bama does not travel well, only 'meaningful ' win is really Georgia (if you want to call it that). I recall that game at Dayton Arena where they got down by 11 nearing the end of the half, and couldn't even get a little closer. Explosive environment that day, just like there'll be tomorrow. Think Auburn wins it straight up for whatever it is worth.
Want to throw something out there, see if you think I'm crazy. I was looking at this game since yesterday thinking this was gonna be a soft line (by public perception that is) to take a lot of money on Alabama making people buy the tide before their game at LSU with what will be some pretty angry Tigers. The line actually came out higher than I expected, destroying my made up conspiracy theory. But still, are people gonna be on the Tide tomorrow? Still think 5 is an appealing number for the average Joe. The way CBB has been carrying me lately, I know I am gonna fire something bigger than normal on Auburn.

Agree, I really like Auburn in this spot. Will probably play a little on the ML as well as I think they can win outright

[jimmysingh9]

I think you would have gotten the Alabama line higher but the Tony Mitchell suspension just came out and probably dropped the line a little bit.

I would take alot of home dogs this week because it is "Rivalry Week" and you will see alot of hated rivalries played out here and probably alot of emotion from the home dogs that usually would fade away otherwise.

[Kballa41]

I like 3 games so far today.

Creighton -5.5: Creighton was running through the MVC before that N.Iowa game. I think that loss spurs them into a dominant performance vs Evansville tonight. I am not worried about the look ahead to Wichita St because they can’t afford to be on a 2 game losing streak going into that marquee matchup for the MVC crown.

Maryland +7.5: Clemson does not cover at home this year (1 time vs FSU where they were amped up to play the conf. opener vs then ranked FSU and crushed them by 20). The Terps have covered 3 straight and i look for more of the same here.

Iowa St + 2.5: Basically don't think OK State deserves to be a favorite here. While its only 2.5 points i see Iowa St winning outright, probably by 2 or 3. While Iowa St. is just 3-4 on the road (Losses to KU, Texas, Mich and Drake(early on before they got gelled remember a bunch of transfers here)) they are 7-2 ATS on the road.

[RickRude]

Since I primarily follow Big East hoops I'm going to try to do a breakdown on the Big East games daily to put a little more info out there. There's only one tonight which will be witnessed by roughly 42 people.

Providence at Villanova
Current Line Nova -7.5
O/U 154.5

Ken Pom is Smart

Team Rankings

Offensive Efficiency: Providence 44 Villanova 53
Defensive Efficiency : Providence 230 Villanova 124
Adjusted Tempo: Providence 170 Villanova 44

Providence O vs Nova D

Providence is the youngest team in the Big East with 1(!) senior on the roster and he has not played a minute this year. They are led by the 3 headed decision making challenged monster of Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton, and Gerard Coleman. Providence will spread Nova out tonight and try to create of the dribble. If you expect the Friars to throw the ball in the post, it's not going to happen. Everything is perimeter based. The Nova guards can be beat off the dribble and Malik Wayns has had problems staying out of foul trouble which could help the Friars put some points up. If Providence can get to the rim and not settle for the 15 footer they are going to push Nova. The Wildcats have not been able to stop anyone in Big East play giving up at least 79 points in every game except one and I don't see that changing tonight.

Nova O vs Providence D

They should call them Prov-ience because they don't have no D! Am I right? Anyways Providence is brutal defensively. Because of their limited height teams are able to post up and run a lot of things inside out. I expect Mouphtao Yarou and JaVaughn Pinkston to have success inside. PRovidence only goes about 7 deep which IMO makes them afraid to foul especially the guards. This leads to late closeouts and free paths to the basket. The 3 Friar guards are only averaging 5 fouls a game between them. Wayns and Cheek should have their share of open looks tonight. With the pace Nova is playing at there will be a lot of shots put up.

Fun Facts

Providence was 3-0 on the road in out of conference, but has lost all of their BE road games by an average of 14 points

The Over has covered in EVERY Villanova BE game

Lean

This game is begging for people to take the over which is what I will do tonight. I'm riding the Nova over train until it lets me off. As for the line I'm going to stay away. Nova has played a lot better recently and should pull away from a young, small, and thin Friar squad, but I don't trust Cheek and Wayns just yet to do that. Also if Council goes crazy (which he's been known to do) he can make the game close all on his own. With all the foul issues that could plague both teams I won't play it. If I had to choose I would give the points, but this screams stay away to me

Question of the game

Will Dominic Cheek pass?!?!

[mount187]

Key point to remember if you're betting the UK / FLA game tonight:

"You just know that they're going to take 30 [three pointers], however you guard it, so my guess would be let's make sure they're guarded," Calipari said. "And if they still make 20, we've had a heck of a start; who do we play next? I mean, they're going to take 30. What if they make 20? They may take 35. What if they make 25?"

He makes a valid point. If FLA takes 30 triples and makes 15+, the game will be close. If they don't, UK is going to roll. Florida has struggled shooting on the road, which is why they're 2-4 away from home so far. I can't imagine they're going to get up a lot of good looks at Rupp tonight, and could see Florida giving Kensucky a lot of fast-break chances on long rebounds. UK is a VERY good team in transition, which could lead to quick point swings or foul trouble for the Gators.

I'm personally hoping more money comes in on Florida, and pushes the line lower, but I have seen a lot of people that I respect on the Gators early.

[SkyBlues42]

(02-07-2012 11:19 AM)RickRude Wrote:  Providence is the youngest team in the Big East with 1(!) senior on the roster and he has not played a minute this year. They are led by the 3 headed decision making challenged monster of Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton, and Gerard Coleman.  Providence will spread Nova out tonight and try to create of the dribble. If you expect the Friars to throw the ball in the post, it's not going to happen. Everything is perimeter based. The Nova guards can be beat off the dribble and Malik Wayns has had problems staying out of foul trouble which could help the Friars put some points up. If Providence can get to the rim and not settle for the 15 footer they are going to push Nova. The Wildcats have not been able to stop anyone in Big East play giving up at least 79 points in every game except one and I don't see that changing tonight.

That's a good point. You'd think with their offense primarily being perimeter based, they'd shoot a lot of 3-pointers. But they don't.

Only 23 percent of Providence's total shots are 3-pointers.

If you look at the numbers, 74% of their points come from FT's and 2-pointers. So they obviously get to the basket. Nova's guards are going to have a tough time stopping them.

[BetATL]

Few notes on Florida/Kentucky:

Florida has not been underdogs since December 2nd where they were 7 point dogs at Syracuse. They've also been favored by at least 5.5 points in all of those games.

Florida is obviously a very good basketball team but they haven't faced great competition and have certainly not faced it on the road since that game against Syracuse. I guess the same could be said for Kentucky but they are at home.

Kentucky seems to be hitting their "late season stride" as they've done the last few years with these young teams under Cal. This will also be their first game for players and fans to "get up" for at Rupp since December 3rd against UNC.

With all that being said, Florida definitely has the players to hang in this one and the 3 ball can be the great equalizer for them. To me it comes down to if Florida hits their 3's or not. Kentucky has been a great defensive team most of the year and Rupp will be rocking tonight so I'm staying away.

Good luck to those who bet it though.

[lincolnduff]

Kensucks... Mount that hurts lol

[mount187]

(02-07-2012 02:23 PM)lincolnduff Wrote:  Kensucks... Mount that hurts lol

[BetATL]

One game that sticks out to me is Maryland @ Clemson.

Maryland has yet to win on the road this season but they have been playing better ball lately under new HC Mark Turgeon.

Maryland has covered 3 straight ATS; They beat VT at home as 2 point dogs, lost @ Miami by 4 in OT as 10.5 point dogs and gave UNC a run for their money at home on Saturday, eventually losing by 9 as 12.5 point dogs.

Clemson is nothing special at home and no special factors in play here. Clemson should win this game but 9 points is a lot to me in a game that I think should be close. Thoughts?

[mchurch21]

The last few games between these two in Kentucky have been decided by single digits. Problem? all by right around 8 pts. Too close a line in a game where FLorida could shoot 20% from deep and lose by 20. I find the under kinda intriguing but finding more value in other games.
With no Mitchell I, like the rest of you basically, am on Auburn. I also like the under. On the road Bama will be conservative and Auburn really can't score, and again no Mitchell. 120 is scary but personally don't think either team hits 60. Small lean and always could be wrong. Final score will prolly be 72-65 Bama, lol.

I will warn others to be weary of Creighton. They make dumb decisions at bad times and though they can score with anyone they tend to get lazy on D when it matters. Evansville isn't that great but they play tough at home and will be coming out to play against #1 team in conf. I wish this game was in Omaha after their loss and not on the road...

[SkyBlues42]

(02-07-2012 02:34 PM)BetATL Wrote:  Clemson is nothing special at home and no special factors in play here. Clemson should win this game but 9 points is a lot to me in a game that I think should be close. Thoughts?

Nine points is definitely a lot. Maryland has been playing good. Shouldn't have trouble staying within 10 points against Clemson.