Tout Calculator

[Doustism]

  Tout Calculator.xlsx (Size: 9 KB / Downloads: 3) (edited 1/24/2013 since someone will inevitably corrupt the google docs version!)

@DavidPurdum was asking what someone who bought a $50 pick would be betting. I put together a very simple worksheet you can figure out how much you should be betting if you were buying a pick for any amount. Top shows the classic break even example if you were just betting yourself. You can change the odds to whatever you want to determine what break even is if you were betting dogs or heavy favorites. I'm sure this probably exists somewhere so my apologies (pretty sure BTB did an article on it before baseball season, but you can check his math I guess...).

At bottom it allows you to put what $ amount you pay per pick. So to answer DP's question, since he and I probably bet the same amount on games ($10-$20), a tout needs to win 171% of the time for us to buy...with some of their marketing, I bet they could somehow sucker someone to buy it and convince them they get picks correct 200% of the time...Back before I went bust a few years ago, I believe I paid $100 for a pick in one of my weaker moments.

So if you were a dime bettor, paid $20 for a tout's pick, you'd be giving up just under 1% for your break even. Long-term that's tough to swallow on profits or more likely if you're paying for a tout, increased losses.

[Beyond the Bets]

Awesome. Thanks. Any chance you can upload this to a shareable Google doc format?

Excel is intimidating.

[Doustism]

Will do after work tonight.

[greenmoose88]

Math like this is exactly what needs to be shown to clean up this industry. A bar is set and you are either on the black or the red side. No if's and's or but's. Now we can all just start telling the TOUTS of the world and the TOUT ENABLER'S that their product is a losing proposition and this is why. Thank you for this.

[thecircusclown]

Touts are, and always have been, ridiculous regardless of what they charge, but some of the rates are just absurd. As professional options traders and market pricing software creators, we believe that we have put an end to touts and they will be going the way of the "hot stock tip guys" very soon. There are only 2 ways that a tout or "expert handicapper" can justify their existence: 1) They can somehow interpret all the public fundamental information available than the rest of the world in a multi trillion $ global market (they can't) OR 2) They have access to non public fundamental information (they don't and it would be illegal). Our patent pending software was denied an app by a major technology company because they called us "cheaters, illegal gambling aid, and card counting for sports". Our pricing is extremely reasonable and we scan EVERY game in EVERY sport to find probable market mispricings and present our products in a format as easy to read as a traffic light. Boom! making the user the expert and a pro trader in seconds. This is 100% the truth, which is the touts enemy, they will be extinct soon. http://www.sportsactioncharts.com the only home of The Wolfline™

* * *

*BTB note: Edited to remove poorly-formatted quote. No part of above message was altered.

[Wiseguy]

Im sorry op, I saw the last post and thought it was his, my mistake.

[BestTrueBets]

We'll put it up on our page.

[Wiseguy]

Wolfline, what kind of results are you seeing? I checked out your site and its interesting. I have some philosophical differences I would like to discuss. 1) Public moves lines. 2) Books want 50/50 action. I am interested in how your doing.

[thecircusclown]

(08-07-2012 01:43 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Wolfline, what kind of results are you seeing? I checked out your site and its interesting. I have some philosophical differences I would like to discuss. 1) Public moves lines. 2) Books want 50/50 action. I am interested in how your doing.

It depends on the users own interpretation criteria/risk tolerance/confidence interval etc just like technical analysis software for any tradable financial market. So there is no answer to "results", we use historical market expected performance and historical true perfomance to calculate probability of overextended binary markets in pointspread(relative strength), totals(implied volatility) and moneylines(probability of occurrence). Philosophical differences are always welcome. We create tools to help make traders in sports gaming more savvy and efficient, we don't claim to have found some magic fleece. I will tell you this, in over 60,000 analyzed potential wagers there has only been one "red alert" 15 games back, and only a handful of "red alerts" 10 games back. The info is calculated and displayed for 100s of games in a split second. If I didn't invent it, I would certainly be a subscriber...that's just the truth

[Beyond the Bets]

Weird. I think I stumbled on Wolfline's site recently. Like, a week or two ago, maybe. Forgot if I was linked in. But definitely have seen it before.

[Wiseguy]

(08-07-2012 01:57 PM)thewolfline Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 01:43 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Wolfline, what kind of results are you seeing? I checked out your site and its interesting. I have some philosophical differences I would like to discuss. 1) Public moves lines. 2) Books want 50/50 action. I am interested in how your doing.

It depends on the users own interpretation criteria/risk tolerance/confidence interval etc just like technical analysis software for any tradable financial market. So there is no answer to "results", we use historical market expected performance and historical true perfomance to calculate probability of overextended binary markets in pointspread(relative strength), totals(implied volatility) and moneylines(probability of occurrence). Philosophical differences are always welcome. We create tools to help make traders in sports gaming more savvy and efficient, we don't claim to have found some magic fleece. I will tell you this, in over 60,000 analyzed potential wagers there has only been one "red alert" 15 games back, and only a handful of "red alerts" 10 games back. The info is calculated and displayed for 100s of games in a split second. If I didn't invent it, I would certainly be a subscriber...that's just the truth

How has it impacted your results? No one knows more about this product than you. Could you make a living betting sports? What separates your product from say team rankings.com or greymatterstats.com? (they both have prediction software) btw inside info In sports is not illegal and some people (very small %) can interpret the data better than most.

[thecircusclown]

(08-07-2012 02:50 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 01:57 PM)thewolfline Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 01:43 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Wolfline, what kind of results are you seeing? I checked out your site and its interesting. I have some philosophical differences I would like to discuss. 1) Public moves lines. 2) Books want 50/50 action. I am interested in how your doing.

It depends on the users own interpretation criteria/risk tolerance/confidence interval etc just like technical analysis software for any tradable financial market. So there is no answer to "results", we use historical market expected performance and historical true perfomance to calculate probability of overextended binary markets in pointspread(relative strength), totals(implied volatility) and moneylines(probability of occurrence). Philosophical differences are always welcome. We create tools to help make traders in sports gaming more savvy and efficient, we don't claim to have found some magic fleece. I will tell you this, in over 60,000 analyzed potential wagers there has only been one "red alert" 15 games back, and only a handful of "red alerts" 10 games back. The info is calculated and displayed for 100s of games in a split second. If I didn't invent it, I would certainly be a subscriber...that's just the truth

How has it impacted your results? No one knows more about this product than you. Could you make a living betting sports? What separates your product from say team rankings.com or greymatterstats.com? (they both have prediction software) btw inside info In sports is not illegal and some people (very small %) can interpret the data better than most.

Well, the best analogy I can make from a business standpoint as to why I don't just live off of the software is because that would be like inventing the most efficient screwgun in the world and becoming the best at hanging drywall as opposed to patenting the screwgun, commercializing it and revolutionizing the way drywall is hung globally. Also, I have spent enough time in racetracks, trading desks, sports books, card rooms, etc to last me a lifetime. Honestly, I have much grander plans than just being the "next Billy Walters" or whatever. That means nothing to us. The statistics that the sites you have alluded to are "fundamental analysis" data as opposed to "technical analysis data". Sports gaming is a very short to low intermediate time frame market, so we assert that all fundamental data has been priced in and technical price vacillations in the market are of paramount concern. I consider myself a "mathematical philosopher" and the impetus for all of this software comes from inspirations like Socrates and Hegel. If someone can make a living interpreting fundamentals God bless them, we don't begrudge anyone and indeed our product should be used as tools as well as other methods of analysis. However just from a time saving standpoint, the software is wholly invaluable and worth much more than we are/will be charging. It isn't illegal for an NFL head coach to tell you they plan on running the ball in this weeks game every down and then you sell that information for clients to play the under? I guess I will have to confirm that. There are many articles/tutorials/guides/videos/examples on the site that I'm sure can clear up any questions you have. We are 100% transparent and disclosed and have no reason to misrepresent anything. Just ask yourself this one simple question..."Is it a coincidence that you cant watch ten minutes of any sporting event without seeing an Etrade, Ameritrade, Scottrade, etc commercial?"

Twitter #sportsactioncht

[Wiseguy]

As an ex financial markets guy, I am familiar with the technical vs fundamental argument. Your obviously very passionate about your side of the case. I believe both are useful tools in any market and neither should be ignored. I will check out your product, thanks for answering my questions. Best of luck!
Forget that Billy Walters guy he is just a gambler!

[thecircusclown]

(08-07-2012 03:44 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  As an ex financial markets guy, I am familiar with the technical vs fundamental argument. Your obviously very passionate about your side of the case. I believe both are useful tools in any market and neither should be ignored. I will check out your product, thanks for answering my questions. Best of luck!
Forget that Billy Walters guy he is just a gambler!

Thanks for understanding Wiseguy, I think you will grasp the value pretty quickly. The touts on Twitter scream "Give Us Barabbas!" everytime I try to explain market theory to them...extremely defensive because I think deep down they know they are out of their league and the end is near for them. Yes, I dont think Henry Ford worried about the "greatest blacksmith in Nevada" either. The truth will win out eventually

Twitter #sportsactioncht

[Wiseguy]

Some handicappers will always be around because the public doesnt want to do research and are inherently lazy. I just hope the scammers and liars are done away with. Just like the stock market there will always be advisors.

[thecircusclown]

(08-07-2012 04:06 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Some handicappers will always be around because the public doesnt want to do research and are inherently lazy. I just hope the scammers and liars are done away with. Just like the stock market there will always be advisors.

Yep, agree. Financial Advisors...there's another joke group. And here is another analogy. In the mid to late 90s when the retail sector realized through online tools and analytics that they could be more of an "expert" with their $ in the markets than their "full service broker/manager" all of the full service brokerage got crushed and now they are done...that is what http://www.sportsactioncharts.com is going to do to the current tout/advisory model...turn it on its head and then done with. So people can free themselves from bondage of lies and be their own pro trader in the sports gaming marketplace with the truth!

Twitter @sportsactioncht

[Doustism]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...WgzM2lSMkE

Never have done google documents so I guess let me know if I did it right. Anyone can use. Enjoy.

[Doustism]

(08-07-2012 05:18 PM)thewolfline Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 04:06 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Some handicappers will always be around because the public doesnt want to do research and are inherently lazy. I just hope the scammers and liars are done away with. Just like the stock market there will always be advisors.

Yep, agree. Financial Advisors...there's another joke group. And here is another analogy. In the mid to late 90s when the retail sector realized through online tools and analytics that they could be more of an "expert" with their $ in the markets than their "full service broker/manager" all of the full service brokerage got crushed and now they are done...that is what http://www.sportsactioncharts.com is going to do to the current tout/advisory model...turn it on its head and then done with. So people can free themselves from bondage of lies and be their own pro trader in the sports gaming marketplace with the truth!

Twitter @sportsactioncht

Checked out your site. Very interesting. Kind of an off topic question, but I have always been intrigued by point & figure charts due to their simplicity. I've always wanted to figure out an application to MLB since it's the longest season. Just curious if you laugh at these charts or if you think something could be there if some analysis was done.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-07-2012 05:57 PM)Doustism Wrote:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...WgzM2lSMkE

Never have done google documents so I guess let me know if I did it right. Anyone can use. Enjoy.

[thecircusclown]

(08-07-2012 06:08 PM)Doustism Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 05:18 PM)thewolfline Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 04:06 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Some handicappers will always be around because the public doesnt want to do research and are inherently lazy. I just hope the scammers and liars are done away with. Just like the stock market there will always be advisors.

Yep, agree. Financial Advisors...there's another joke group. And here is another analogy. In the mid to late 90s when the retail sector realized through online tools and analytics that they could be more of an "expert" with their $ in the markets than their "full service broker/manager" all of the full service brokerage got crushed and now they are done...that is what http://www.sportsactioncharts.com is going to do to the current tout/advisory model...turn it on its head and then done with. So people can free themselves from bondage of lies and be their own pro trader in the sports gaming marketplace with the truth!

Twitter @sportsactioncht

Checked out your site. Very interesting. Kind of an off topic question, but I have always been intrigued by point & figure charts due to their simplicity. I've always wanted to figure out an application to MLB since it's the longest season. Just curious if you laugh at these charts or if you think something could be there if some analysis was done.

Much of our software takes "point and figure" type analytics into consideration (higher highs, lower lows) to determine the probability that reversal points are imminent and rallys and/or selloffs have been "overdone". Basically when higher bids continue to be filled there comes an unsustainable point and a reversal, by the same token when lower offers continue to be unfilled and bids subsequently faded, there comes an unsustainable point and reversal. The progress of technology has allowed us to display these market mechanics in a way beyond the old school point and figure format. But in the end its about "buying cheap" and "selling expensive" regardless if its price,volatility or probability

Twitter @sportsactioncht