Time to Teach

[RyanParrill]

I came across this on twitter and I was hoping BTB, or anyone else, could simplify this for me.

It's called the "Sharpest Teaser Theory" and Jason Sample was just discussing it. Here are some of the tweets:


I say "sharpest teaser theory" meaning wiseguys basically only play 6-point teasers if Fav is -7.5 to 8.5 or Dog is +1.5 to +2.5

Because games end on 3 or 7 a little shy of 25% of the time so if they can move past BOTH numbers the value of the play soars.

And to be clear, I'm talking 2-team, 6-point teasers with this. Do not do 7-pointers and take the -130 vig - you are diminishing value.

Anybody?

[ChiefZilla]

I could be wrong, but it seems like he's just saying that the sharpest bettors will ONLY do teasers if the favorite is -7.5 to -8.5 (bringing it down to -1.5 or -2.5) or if the underdog is +1.5 or +2.5 (bringing it up to +7.5 or +8.5). Otherwise a 6-point teaser presents no value; the real value is in getting a number past both the 3 and 7-point spreads.

That probably didn't help, but hey, I tried.

[Beyond the Bets]

I rarely play teasers, but the few times that I do, I'll only play them on a dog that, with the teaser, will cross the 7 or the 10. And it's gotta be a game that I project to be low scoring, and it has to be on a dog that I think will win outright. Sounds elementary enough, right?

There are certain spots where you'll find a team that's a 4.5-point dog and you say, "No way does this team lose by more than a TD." That's when you tease it to 10.5 and relax.

[ChiefZilla]

For example, there are no current 7.5 to 8.5 point faves in the NFL, but you could tease the Pats down from -7 to -1 over Miami and pair that with the Titans teased up from +2 to +8 against Jacksonville. If both hit, a $110 bet pays $100.

[RyanParrill]

Much appreciated, fellas.

After reading these and this:

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Our Position: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser +100 Pittsburgh +8.5 and Cleveland -0.5
Opening Line: Baltimore -3
Current Line: Baltimore -2.5
Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Pittsburgh +2.5

This teaser at +100 is offered by 5Dimes. Often teasers are looked at as a square position; however they can be used effectively. Jason Sample @SampleThis32 explained this earlier today. We’ll get into this more in a later blog, but in addition to Jason thoughts, they are most useful when the lines are sharp, and the game is likely to be low scoring. We see that in this matchup along with the previous sharpness described in the Cleveland / Cincinnati game. In the first week, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair and a close game. These teams are very evenly matched and therefore feel 2.5 is a true and sharp line. The likelihood that Baltimore beats Pittsburgh by more than a TD (something they haven’t done since 2006) is extremely low. This tease also allows us to cross the all important numbers of 3 and 7 in Pittsburgh’s case (and 3 in the Brown’s case.)

Long Edit: By the way, I just recently came across The Sports Market. Which, at first, saddened me since I should have known about this long ago. My education was in finance so this is right up my alley. I was wondering if BTB used any of this information or knew much about him. I see now it may be the other way, TSM referring BTB.

[Weebay]

(09-08-2011 03:41 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Much appreciated, fellas.

After reading these and this:

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Our Position: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser +100 Pittsburgh +8.5 and Cleveland -0.5
Opening Line: Baltimore -3
Current Line: Baltimore -2.5
Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Pittsburgh +2.5

This teaser at +100 is offered by 5Dimes. Often teasers are looked at as a square position; however they can be used effectively. Jason Sample @SampleThis32 explained this earlier today. We’ll get into this more in a later blog, but in addition to Jason thoughts, they are most useful when the lines are sharp, and the game is likely to be low scoring. We see that in this matchup along with the previous sharpness described in the Cleveland / Cincinnati game. In the first week, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair and a close game. These teams are very evenly matched and therefore feel 2.5 is a true and sharp line. The likelihood that Baltimore beats Pittsburgh by more than a TD (something they haven’t done since 2006) is extremely low. This tease also allows us to cross the all important numbers of 3 and 7 in Pittsburgh’s case (and 3 in the Brown’s case.)

Long Edit: By the way, I just recently came across The Sports Market. Which, at first, saddened me since I should have known about this long ago. My education was in finance so this is right up my alley. I was wondering if BTB used any of this information or knew much about him. I see now it may be the other way, TSM referring BTB.

To get the biggest edge on NFL teasers play through the 7 and 3. If you can get even money you are stealing. Don't play anything bigger than -110 on 6 pt teasers.

[jimmysingh9]

I actually teased preseason games to a nice profit this year. will post a thread for next year, but experimented this year take 12 point teasers at 8 games. At first i took dogs that i liked but then i figured to take home teams that i liked and hit regularly. still good payouts and plays weren't really close but some i needed the tease.